Damon Matthews

Human-induced warming not measured in ppb

Yes! What causes the resilience of equatorial Kiribati reefs in the face of repeated El Nino driven marine heat waves is the core question of our local research program journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim:

⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C
⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade
⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance
⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2

essd.copernicus.org/...

Ending the climate crisis has one simple solution: Stop using fossil fuels Saying that the climate problem is complex is false, and a distraction from what we know needs to be done.

For more details:

theconversation.com/ending-the-c...

Stubble Burning in Northern India In late-October and November, farmers in northern India burn off crop debris, a practice known as stubble burning.

Every winter, northern India grapples with a choking air crisis.
A major culprit? STUBBLE BURNING!!🌾🔥
#Agriculture #Pollution #StubbleBurning
@damonmatthews.bsky.social
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/84680... @damonmatthews.bsky.social

The use of publicly available online texts in training AI: an ethical analysis of AI’s right to learn Download Citation | The use of publicly available online texts in training AI: an ethical analysis of AI’s right to learn | Purpose This paper aims to discuss the ethical permissibility of using publi...

What are ethics to a machine? ⚖️⚡💿 Let’s dive into a new article by Louai Rahal on "The use of publicly available online texts in training AI: An ethical analysis of AI’s right to learn" from the Journal of Information, Communication and Ethics in Society. 🧵1/9 www.researchgate.net/publication/...

1/8 Ever wonder how feral dogs impact wild primates? 🐶🐒
A new study explores how the Central Himalayan Langur (Semnopithecus schistaceus) (CHL) changes its behavior when navigating a “landscape of fear” shaped by both humans and predatory dogs. Let’s make a thread. 🧵

The transformative potential of eDNA-based biodiversity impact assessment Biodiversity impact assessments aim to enable market actors, regulators, and political agents to effectively steer human activities in a more sustaina…

(1/9) 🧵
The financial sector is finally waking up to the major threat of biodiversity loss. Understanding local impacts is key to making sustainable nature-positive decisions. This recent article explores how environmental DNA (eDNA) could be a game-changer.
🧬 #biodiversity

This was filmed at Monkey Bay, Thailand — a hotspot for tourists and crab-eating long-tailed macaques. It looks fun. But feeding wild animals might be doing more harm than good... 🧵👇 1/10

#wildlifetourism #macaques #MonkeyBay #ProvisionFeeding #animalwelfare #primateconservation

1/8 So I watched Wim Werner's Perfect Days and soon after started drinking Japanese canned coffee like the main character. Once the novelty wore off and my cooler head prevailed, I went down a rabbit hole of seeing whether canned was the more sustainable option for my coffee. Here's a 🧵about it ↩

Agriculture contributes greatly to biodiversity loss, water depletion, and GHG emissions, but to date global assessments of agricultural impacts on the environment are hindered by a lack of globally standardized spatially explicit data. Here’s how Jwaideh & Dalin (2025) tackle this challenge. 1/9

1/8 What assumptions and ideologies are represented in projected environmental futures?

In a paper published last October, a team of researchers from the University of Valladolid analyzed the ideological assumptions of 993 global environmental scenarios contained in 243 academic works.

What can we expect from specialty coffee in 2025? Once defined by its passion, specialty coffee has become more pragmatic – and emerging trends push it further in this direction.

For an in-depth scope? Check out the 2022-2023 study: “The World of Coffee: 21st Century solutions for a commodity facing climate change risks” (Negre et al.) And for a smoother brew on 2025 coffee trends: perfectdailygrind.com/2025/02/what... @damonmatthews.bsky.social

Since COVID-19, many of us shifted how and where we work—home, cafés, hybrid setups. But what about working outdoors? A recent study found indoor work norms still dominate, yet shows outdoor work can boost focus, mood, and productivity. 🌿💻 @damonmatthews.bsky.social

Are protected areas even useful? 🤔 Let’s deep dive into the literature and experts’ opinions on the topic
🧵 (spoiler alert: it’s complicated…)

@damonmatthews.bsky.social #protectedareas #COP15 #natureconservation
(all references in the last post) 1/10
Article link: www.iisd.org/articles/ins...

Exploring the past to protect the future: an analysis of conservation paleobiology in South America Abstract Conservation paleobiology, an expanding field, employs taphonomy tools to investigate...

This is an interesting article by PhD student Anna Clara Arboitte de Assumpção from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul. It explores the growing field of conservation paleobiology and emphasizes the importance of this research in South America.

www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/F4t...

Line chart – China's CO2 emissions are now 1% below their March 2024 peak: China’s emissions from fossil fuels and cement, million tonnes of CO2, rolling 12-month totals. Source: Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying emissions factors from China’s latest national greenhouse gas emissions inventory and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2024. Sector breakdown of coal consumption is estimated using coal consumption data from WIND Information and electricity data from the National Energy Administration.

NEW – Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/6eAcjRU

There is no linearity assumption in how the warming rate is typically estimated

Also calling an entire scientific community idiotic is a rather bold statement not based on any actual evidence

Yes that looks about right

Absolutely you can! But the 5th percentile means we have a 5% chance of exceeding 2C in the next 15 years, not 90% as you led this string with.

My whole point was that a linear trend over only 10 years is (as you so nicely put it) linear nonsense. A linear trend through the 10 years from 2004 to 2014 gives almost no warming at all which was clearly an underestimate. Similarly the trend from 2014 to 2024 is an overestimate of the true rate

If you so the math on the Copernicus estimate (1.39C now and reaching 1.5C by Hune 2029), they are using 0.26C per decade

It’s not going to change dramatically — one additional year has limited power to shift the long-term trend

If Hansen’s estimate is just a 10-year trend drawn through the observations, I would not use this, in the same way that a 10-year trend through the hiatus period was wrong

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability - Nature A transparent and reproducible scientific framework is introduced to formalize how trillions in economic losses are attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from fossil fuel companies, whi...

Can scientists trace climate losses back to the emissions from individual fossil fuel companies?

Yes, we can.

The inimitable @ccallahan45.bsky.social and I provide an 'end-to-end' attribution framework that can be applied in many climate accountability contexts:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Good thing y’all have a president who follows the science now

This is a climate election With the frontrunners pitching wildly contrasted policies in some ways and similar ones in another, it's vital for Canadians to keep abreast of their climate ambitions — and to hold them to account wh...

Where do the three major federal parties stand on climate change?

In a @nationalobserver.com opinion piece, @arts.ubc.ca professors Drs. Kathryn Harrison (@profkharrison.bsky.social) and Simon Donner (@simondonner.bsky.social) compare them: www.nationalobserver.com/2025/04/21/o...

When countries exceed their fair share of global emissions, it will come back to bite.

We introduce a concept of net-zero carbon debt in a study in @pnas.org

See the news story below

Adam ElmanAdam Elman • 2nd • 2nd Sustainability Director at Google | Previously leading sustainability at Amazon, M&S (Plan A) and Klockner Pentaplast | Passionate about driving positive transformational changeSustainability Director at Google | Previously leading sustainability at Amazon, M&S (Plan A) and Klockner Pentaplast | Passionate about driving positive transformational change 10h • 10 hours ago • Visible to anyone on or off LinkedIn Follow 🚨 New White Paper Alert: AI for EU Climate and Competitiveness 🌍💪 I’m excited to share that Google has published a new white paper: The AI Opportunity for Europe’s Climate Goals - a policy roadmap outlining how European policymakers can enable, deploy, and guide AI to accelerate climate progress while strengthening Europe’s competitive edge. AI has the potential to mitigate 5–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030—equivalent to the EU’s total annual emissions. And with GenAI poised to add €1.2 trillion to Europe’s economy in a decade, the opportunity is massive. Huge thanks to the experts and policymakers who contributed their insights, and to my Google colleagues for leading the research. The path forward is clear: better data access, infrastructure, skills development, and responsible AI deployment will unlock AI’s full potential for climate action. At Google we remain committed to helping realise this opportunity. 🧠 Learn more in our Keyword Blog https://lnkd.in/eaXD_YPp 📖 And Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/emGbsSJQ

The European Union has outlined ambitious goals to be carbon neutral by 2050 while, at the same time, boosting European competitiveness and productivity. Today, we’re publishing a policy roadmap — The AI Opportunity for Europe’s Climate Goals — that explores how AI can help the EU meet these twin goals. Studies show that AI could help mitigate 5–10% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 — the equivalent to the total annual emissions of the European Union — and that GenAI technology alone could add €1.2 trillion to Europe’s economy in ten years. For an example of how these benefits could manifest more specifically: through effective AI adoption, European industry could increase efficiency and reduce energy usage in large buildings by 20-40%. To realize this opportunity, we are recommending a three-pronged approach that EU policymakers can take to enable, deploy, and guide the sustainable development and implementation of AI technologies across various sectors:

Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) tools can help create a competitive, prosperous, and sustainable future for Europe. Studies estimate that AI could help mitigate 5–10% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20301 - equivalent to the total annual emissions of the European Union - while generative AI alone could add €1.2 trillion to Europe’s economy in ten years and boost annual productivity by up to 1.4%2 . Accelerated AI adoption under the EU’s 2024-2029 mandate can play a key role in fast-tracking progress toward its 2050 climate-neutrality goal while 01 – Executive Summary increasing competitiveness, resilience and security – key priorities in its new Strategic Agenda. Google operates 7 data centres and 12 cloud regions across Europe, and has signed agreements to purchase more than 3.7 gigawatts of clean energy generation capacity3 . We are also pursuing a bold goal to reach net-zero emissions across our operations and value chain by 2030, supported by a goal to run on 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE) every hour of every day on every grid where we operate.

It is really wild that Google won't stop claiming that AI will reduce GLOBAL emissions by 5-10%

I traced the origin of that claim and.....it is so much worse than I expected.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-rea...

Tariffs xkcd.com/3073

Why stop at Climate Denial?

Nature Denial — home for all forms of science skepticism from Vaccines to Evolution to Climate