moritz

Was macht nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen wirklich aus? @steffenmurau.bsky.social und @moritzkapff.bsky.social wissen weiter 👇

Brad of course agrees

Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels.

I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies

Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know

It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts.

And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century

Chartbook 409 Beyond the "Marshall Plan": China's solar boom as world-changing industrial policy. In the first six months of 2025 China installed more than 250GW of solar power capacity.

"China is the only large country driving the energy transition at anything close to the necessary speed and scale."

It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability.

Coincidence?

I think not.

Energy sector advantage by continent

Energy sector advantage by continent 2/

Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France.

Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.

beantrage vier monate sabbatical um meinem lesestapel hinterherzukommen

CBI is legitimised by 2 arguments. Progressives should defend 1 and keep fighting against 2.
1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly
2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️

x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths.
x8 in Zambia
x7 in Botswana
x6 in Sudan
x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia

🧵

None of this is to say the US tariffs won’t hurt European exports — they will. Europe had legit cause to retaliate now.

But I doubt a militarily more independent future Europe has the will, impetus and import-competition concern to reopen a broad trade war on the US.

6/

The whole China green manufacturing thing is understood - I think? - as a key factor in the energy complex, geopolitics, and climate. People have heard of the Pakistan story; where a quarter of electricity is now solar compared to >10% in 2023.
But, like: things keep happening!

Der Zinshammer – Wie Zentralbanken Inflation bekämpfen - Dezernat Zukunft Institut für Makrofinanzen

Die EZB hat dafür kein gutes Werkzeug: Laufen lassen ist sozialer Sprengstoff. Mit dem Zinshammer draufhauen bremst die ganze Wirtschaft und löst das grundsätzliche Problem nicht.

dezernatzukunft.org/en/der-zinsh...

Im September erscheint ein von @huhnholz.bsky.social, @aaronsahr.bsky.social und Eva Weiler herausgegebener Sonderband zur Politischen Theorie öffentlicher Finanzen. Es geht darum, ökonomische, geldpolitische und fiskalische Fragen endlich wieder zum Gegenstand politischen Denkens zu machen.

Ha-Joon Chang on the neglect of climate and the environment in today's economics degree @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/9aab...

Ganz eindrücklich, in diesen Tagen sein Fahrrad in der Werkstatt zu haben: Man ist urplötzlich aufgeschmissen in Berlin, wo es immer wunderbar ging mit Nextbike. Wie einsam ist Berlin jetzt unter Metropolen mit Anspruch auf Welt- oder wenigstens Westgeltung ohne taugliches Leihradsystem?

Das fiskalische Ökosystem Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte.

Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte.

Das fiskalische Ökosystem Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte.

Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte, schreiben @steffenmurau.bsky.social und Moritz Kapff.

they need to just spend one day in shanghai and that problem would be solved

🚨 Out now: Die dritte Surplus-Ausgabe »Wir kümmern uns« ist da.

Neoliberale schaffen einen Staat, der die Menschen allein lässt. Doch es braucht gemeinsame Fürsorge.

In den nächsten Tagen im Briefkasten, am Kiosk oder sofort online auf:
👉 www.surplusmagazin.de/surplus-3-wi...

Das fiskalische Ökosystem Schattenhaushalte sind keine Ausnahme, sondern seit Jahrzehnten fester Bestandteil der Staatsfinanzen. Sie spiegeln die deutsche Geschichte.

Very happy to see that the article @moritzecon.bsky.social and I have written on Germany's "fiscal ecosystem" has just been published online and in print in Surplus Magazine

www.surplusmagazin.de/staat-schatt...

Striking back hard at MAGA's Miran/Bessent plans, @steffenmurau.bsky.social and I propose a SUERF User's guide for euro internationalisation (based on our recent JEPP article)
www.suerf.org/publications...

Might start referring to myself as having been 'radicalised by the macro intelligentsia'.

Screenshot of table 1 in the paper: Discipline Low High Low Derisking (weak) Carbon shock therapy High Derisking (robust) Big green state

We propose a typology organized around
1. the scale of green public spending
2. the degree of discipline imposed on private capital:

This yields four green macrofinancial regimes:

The EU needs to step up its challenge to the dollar The euro should be developed more as a haven asset for times of market stress

Really great piece by @katie0martin.ft.com on our recent euro internationalisation paper, rightly concluding that fear of "industrial amounts of arguing" remains the EU's biggest obstacle www.ft.com/content/16e7...

Droughts are major threat to Eurozone economy, warns ECB Eurozone banks hold €1.3tn in loans to sectors most exposed to severe water shortages, including farming

Droughts could wipe out nearly 15 per cent of economic output in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank has warned. Via
@kenzabryan.ft.com.
www.ft.com/content/2b19...

Here's a couple, from various pieces of research with @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @johnspringford.bsky.social and Brad Setser, that I've been sharing at conferences:

Clean technology exports already account for 4% of Germany's GDP, a figure unmatched by any other G7 country or even China.

2/

🚨 New open access article 🚨

Out now in Journal of Financial Regulation with Alex Goghie and Matteo Giordano

'Encumbered Security? Vertical and Horizontal Repos in the Euro Area and Their Inherent Ambiguity'

academic.oup.com/jfr/advance-...

Nils' point is accurate.

The math is simple: no, even with Germany doing its part, Europe can't fill the gap left by fading US demand.

The US accounts for ~50% of global trade deficits.

DEU's expected trade surplus decline will provide incremental demand to the global economy similar to FRA.

Dear WSJ Editorial Board, your April 25th piece on Germany's energy transition fundamentally misunderstands both renewable energy systems and modern grid architecture. Your "hostage to weather" narrative misses the mark. 1/

The key chart right now:

Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers.

This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.