Michael Clarke

Why did Trump move his best nuclear deterrent? Not for strategic gain The US president says he has deployed submarines closer to Russia — but this would only make the boats more vulnerable to attack

If I were a more cynical person I might have thought that Trump's nonsensical nuclear submarine announcement served to distract attention from something else - like labour statistics, or Epstein files. Here is the non-event explained.
www.thetimes.com/article/69bc...

GAZA And if you are also wondering about 'collective punishment' - that is also illegal under Art 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention (1949) and its Additional Protocol I (1977) Art 75(2)(d) & Additional Protocol II (1977) Art 4(2)(b). Also in Hague Regulation (1907), Art 50. Also in ICC Articles 7 & 8.

GAZA In case you were wondering, the legal provision against the forceable transfer of a population is in 4th Geneva Convention (1949) Art. 49. Also in Customary Human Rights Law, Rule 129(A) and 130. Also in International Criminal Court Statutes (1998), Art 7(1)(d) and Art 8(2)(e)(vii). Choose any.

US says the tariffs deal with China guarantees that critical magnets will still be available after rare earths agreement. White House suddenly found that China can coerce them more effectively with rare earths than they can coerce China with tariffs. An interesting lesson for the Trump world view.

The NATO Summit is a Trump-fest; a massive damage limitation exercise aiming to keep him in the room for long enough to hear what they all have to say about meeting (eventually / maybe / sort of) a 5%GDP defence spending pledge. Only item on the agenda, in effect.

Was up on Rustavili Ave yesterday. Congratulation to all of you who are keeping this flame alive amid constant arrests and repression. I know a good proportion of the population support what you are doing, even if they are not on Rustaveli Ave every night - (they have families to protect etc.)

No wonder satire is dying - you just can't make anything up that's more absurd than these chatacters' reality bubbles. (I'm assuming this is not a fake or a manipulated exchange, but then Lutnick IS like this.)

People keep asking me when my 2024 book will be re-issued after first printing. It is available now from Pen & Sword or on Amazon at a discounted £22.63. I am currently writing a follow-up, provisionally titled 'British Women of Command'.

The ridiculous Tulsi Gabbard (Trump's Dir Nat Intell) told Senate this week US intell "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” Like Trump, she lives in her own reality. Amazing.

Gaza. I've been arguing endlessly that 'genocide' charges against the IDF don't meet the necessarily high thresholdld for that charge. Lord Sumption tonight put it exactly right, I think - that since 16 May Israeli tactics and statements are pushing up to that threshold - they're getting close. Yes.

Istanbul summit. The one, pre-agreed, outcome was a big exchange of 1000 PoWs. There have been 'over 50' PoW exchanges so far, but the precise number is not known outside official circles.

Read out from 90 min Istanbul talks: Ru wouldn't allow US rep into the room; then Medinsky resumed his 2022 line - you must withdraw from all 4 oblasts (which Ru not conquered yet), and if you delay, next time it will be 5, then 8 oblasts. No negotiation, just threats. A wonder it lasted 90 mins.

Thanks Marcus, appreciated...

Thanks for the clarification!

Yep. Looks that way.

I think this is the clearest indication of Trump's direction of travel now. He is preparing to move on, leave it, and blame Ukraine & Europeans for failure. War goes on. Q of when US pulls intell help, then Starlink. Partnership with Ru blossoms, bigger transatlantic parting of the ways during 2025.

👇

Still working to make out whether this is the tip of a new iceberg, or just individual mercenary activity - (doesn't look like it so far )

Sure. I agree with your interpretation. Dictatorships and autocracies get away with dreadful things perpetrated on their own people, but the final straw is often a lesser something, eg. a particular scandal, or govt incompetence in one case, and the ball of widespread public anger starts rolling.

Greenland. Trump's strategic reasoning on Greenland is all essentially sound. And the US can have what it wants as things stand, at little extra cost, in a win, win, win for all sides. But if his reasoning is strategic, his current demands on Greenland are just imperial grandeur, pure and simple.

I count about 10 brave men strongarming 3 defenceless young women, one of whom has committed the crime of carrying a banner.... More or less exemplifies the moral and physical courage of the Putinesque GD government.

Georgian opposition movement looking like another casualty of the spreading wave of dictatorship / authoritarianism moving across south eastern Europe. GD, like Erdogan, Orban and FICO all tough it out with more violent repression.. till it eventually blows up, often on a comparatively minor issue.

As analysts, most of us held off on US negotiations with Ru over Ukraine so as not to dismiss them out of hand. So we watched, sceptically, hopefully. It's clear now they are being made to look like complete fools by the Russians, as we always feared they would. Just hopeless...so easily suckered.

Irony apart, my assumption is that these evidently able property gurus are actually out of their depth when they are pitched into global politics, no preps, especially with the Russians. There are generations of European diplomats who've spent their lives dealing with Russians. It's never simple.

Maybe he should read a book - almost any book, really - on Russian history. Then get someone to give him extracts from Putin's writings and speeches over the last 15 years.

Just as a matter of technical interest, it would be possible for UK Trident missiles to deliver a pretty small nuclear explosive of 2 or 3 kts using an unboosted primary warhead (tnough other downsides to that) or not so hard to go back to 1998 status, delivering tactical nuclear bombs by aircraft.

Most analysts accept that once any nuclear device is used, by anyone, then all bets are off for what might happen next. We can theorise all we like but the fact is, as Freedman says, 'nuclear deterrence works better in practice than theory'.

This Union flag is upside down. That is a distress signal. Is the image trying to convey a deeper message? Who created this image?

Putin's in no position to say 'no' to the US truce plan, but he will certainly be saying 'yes, but' to string out the opening discussions and enter a 'conditions contest' with Kyiv to put pressure back on them. A lot will hinge on US patience/skill in handling Russia's standard negotiating tactic.

Russian nuclear use against Eur countries is still a very low probability, not least because British and French nuclear forces still exist and consideration is being revived of technical ways tp extend those two forces to cover other Eur allies. Shouldn't be complacent, but no need for alarm.