Michael Clarke

Sensible support to Ukraine. Medvedev, predictably, said it was risking European war - as if Russia's attack was not being critically propped up by China, North Korea and Iran. Good for Denmark - producing fuel for Ukraine's own FP5 Flamingo missile.

There are also previous examples, like 'extraordinary rendition' and other US counter-terrorist policies, where the UK is worried about complicity in a policy that may subsequently be judged illegal. Sometimes intell cooperation is withheld until 'assurances' have been received. Maybe not this time?

Russian robot fully authentic - it's a drunk. (Others thought of that one before me). Been laughing about it all morning, while China shows off its 'invasion dogs' robot force with an eye on amphibious Taiwan landings - not so funny.

There are quite a few reasons why the UK and other 5-Eyes countries are probably not sharing their most valuable intelligence with the US at the moment. This is just another. Of course, they cannot say so openly, but all important intell-sharing is based on trust. And that's very tough just now.

Exclusive: UK suspends some intelligence sharing with US over boat strike concerns in major break | CNN Politics The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes ...

NEW via CNN: “The United Kingdom is no longer sharing intelligence with the US about suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean because it does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal”

This may not be it, but I sense that Ukr has been preparing for one or more 'spectaculars' if only to help reverse the Putin/US narrative that Ukr is militarily close to defeat. The Russian ground offensive has run out of steam & now Ukr wants to hit hard to show them - & the world - that they can.

This is part of a good 2023 Russian joke during the Sweden / Finland accession issue. When God heard that all Russians automatically go to heaven, heaven applied to join NATO. (Brits & Russians do share a certain sense of humour).

As I said last week - there will be a lot of veto activity before anything is possible on EU membership, so it will be up to bilateral relations with Ukraine and Moldova to help wherever other supportive states can. But it will be difficult.

The idea that everyone in the military must meet 'the highest male standards' echos the approach of Montgomery taking over 8th Army and Slim with 14th Army in 2WW. But that was when the military was a much simpler animal. There is only room for so much Bruce Willis now.
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I can't imagine this speech has gone down well with hundreds of experienced senior officers - patronising & insulting by turns. It stressed all the most obvious military points that they will have conveyed to their novice officers and cadets dozens of times. So ill-judged.
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It will be a long road to EU membership and Budapest and Bratislava will both try to veto any progress on behalf of Putin. But Romania has a natural inerest in helping Moldova develop and a lot can be done bilaterally by many European states.
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Congratulations to the brave Maia Sandu and the PAS in Moldova on their convincing election win, despite a really big Kremlin campaign to get their clients back into government in Chisinau. A small piece of good news in the big picture of liberal democracy under terminal threat during our lifetime.

All over the world, governments have taken to branding everything they don't like as 'terrorist' because most of the legal restraints come off in the pursuit of 'counter-terrorism'. It's the sad, long term consequence of US stupidity after 9/11 in 2001 in creating a 'war on terror'. They all do it.

Most Russian refineries produce a range of oil products, including both gasoline and diesel, so in theory the Russians could run short of diesel, BUT the gasoline domestic market is much greater and more complex so is affected first. And even if diesel were short, the military will still get it.

Yes. 30 a month at present, but hoping to move to 200 a month by the end of the year and then many more after that. BUT, they still need more western components, more cash for expansion, and need to disperse the production centres to protect them from Russian attacks.

If only.......

At least one aspect of Russian barbarity - and this is open and shut genocidal policy - seems to be getting through to the US mainstream. Though I doubt it will make any difference to White House thinking.

All discussions about a Ukraine peace deal and western 'reassurance forces' etc are gesture politics ahead of Trump's failure to close a deal. The European intention is to stay close to US while it zig-zags out of the war, because it matters to future fighting who Trump will blame for his failure.

Interesting that this man was a 100% MAGA sceptic about Ukraine a few months ago. But to his credit, he has investigated the reality of the war and had the honesty to change his opinion on it. Whether it influences Trump is, of course, another matter.

Day 261 of #GeorgiaProtests

Today, protesters are having a Ukrainian march in support of Ukraine at the Alaska talks.

Georgian, Ukrainian, and American flags are seen.

"Victory to Ukraine! Victory to Georgia! Down with Russia's rotten Empire!"

Seems like soon the regime will begin jailing CSO representatives.

By the way, where's all that financial aid promised to them by the EU?..

That's the general idea. Another Trump 'deadline' passes with his fierce threats replaced yet again by another huge diplomatic win, presented on a plate, to Putin. The Russians can hardly believe their luck having such a massive man-child in the White House just now.

Why did Trump move his best nuclear deterrent? Not for strategic gain The US president says he has deployed submarines closer to Russia — but this would only make the boats more vulnerable to attack

If I were a more cynical person I might have thought that Trump's nonsensical nuclear submarine announcement served to distract attention from something else - like labour statistics, or Epstein files. Here is the non-event explained.
www.thetimes.com/article/69bc...

GAZA And if you are also wondering about 'collective punishment' - that is also illegal under Art 33 of the 4th Geneva Convention (1949) and its Additional Protocol I (1977) Art 75(2)(d) & Additional Protocol II (1977) Art 4(2)(b). Also in Hague Regulation (1907), Art 50. Also in ICC Articles 7 & 8.

GAZA In case you were wondering, the legal provision against the forceable transfer of a population is in 4th Geneva Convention (1949) Art. 49. Also in Customary Human Rights Law, Rule 129(A) and 130. Also in International Criminal Court Statutes (1998), Art 7(1)(d) and Art 8(2)(e)(vii). Choose any.

US says the tariffs deal with China guarantees that critical magnets will still be available after rare earths agreement. White House suddenly found that China can coerce them more effectively with rare earths than they can coerce China with tariffs. An interesting lesson for the Trump world view.

The NATO Summit is a Trump-fest; a massive damage limitation exercise aiming to keep him in the room for long enough to hear what they all have to say about meeting (eventually / maybe / sort of) a 5%GDP defence spending pledge. Only item on the agenda, in effect.

Was up on Rustavili Ave yesterday. Congratulation to all of you who are keeping this flame alive amid constant arrests and repression. I know a good proportion of the population support what you are doing, even if they are not on Rustaveli Ave every night - (they have families to protect etc.)

No wonder satire is dying - you just can't make anything up that's more absurd than these chatacters' reality bubbles. (I'm assuming this is not a fake or a manipulated exchange, but then Lutnick IS like this.)

People keep asking me when my 2024 book will be re-issued after first printing. It is available now from Pen & Sword or on Amazon at a discounted £22.63. I am currently writing a follow-up, provisionally titled 'British Women of Command'.