acemaxx analytics

A critical look at #CircularFinance in the #AI ​​sector.

That means July was a temporary rebound, and August reversed it sharply — enough to erase the improvement. A fall of – 4% m/m is severe for industrial production: such a move usually only happens during crises or holidays when seasonal adjustment fails.

(Holy Crap!)
#Germany #IP Industrial Production in Aug 2025: -4.3%M, -3.9%Y, on a downward trend for almost 4y,
chart #destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

#Nvidia participated in 52 different venture investment deals for #AI companies in 2024 and had already done 50 deals by the end of Sept this year:

#CircularFinance amid flurry #AI deals -
Chart @technology
www.bloomberg.com/news/features/

#consensus expects #Fed funds rate to finish 2026 at ca. 3% (4-5 additional cuts), but sticky #inflation and stronger growth trends suggest expectations may be too aggressive, notes #MorganStanley

In the US, higher #productivity increases potential growth, which can support higher profit margins and valuation multiples, chart #MorganStanley

US labor #productivity remains a key growth driver in the US, chart #MorganStanley

Bond issued by US firms in a foreign currency are known as Reverse Yankee in market parlance.

#FX
#ReverseYankee supply remains a strong driver of EUR corporate supply this year, with another €8bn in Sept. Market conditions remain aligned to offer cost-saving opportunities for US issuers, chart @ING_Economics

#FX and Why #EMs suffer awful:
Since the #CarryTrade hit bottom last Sept it has, on a total return basis, beaten the S&P 500, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

If #Fed eases further this month, it will further fuel what are already the loosest US financial #conditions and lowest UST market #volatility in almost 4y, chart @reuters.com

Yay!
I have two new #books
#novels with awesome #illustrations - (must-read and enjoy) @suhrkamp.de Sept 2025
www.suhrkamp.de/buch/bertolt...

#pic
This morning on my way into town: the #aesthetics and sense of #style of the owner or the institution behind it. The #door is the "crowning glory of the facade.”

#AI
#Bubbles are economic cycles defined by a swift increase in market values to levels that aren’t supported by the underlying fundamentals. They’re usually followed by a sharp selloff -
chart @technology www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

In addition, #speculators who had previously been riding the rally have more recently dumped their positions, with many now betting on falling prices.

Analysts say the retreat reflects a drop-off in #consumer #demand as a result of the higher prices, as well as expectations of a better #crop given improved weather and higher state-guaranteed prices in west Africa.

#cocoa prices have tumbled to a 20-month low, bringing to an end a dramatic 2y rally that had driven the market to record highs and squeezed #chocolate #manufacturers worldwide, chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/b6ce...

Combined with a declining number of #job openings, rising #unemployment, and slower #job growth, the bottom line is that the #labor market is at a standstill, notes Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal.bsky.social

#Japan #inflation (core CPI) versus #BoJ policy rate, chart @reuters.com
www.reuters.com/markets/euro...

#gold tops $4,000 for the 1st time fueled by US Govt #shutdown —- BTW: #gold returns dwarfs equity returns this century, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

Macron’s 5th PM in 2y:
#France is currently collapsing politically b/c #Germany has ruined the country economically with its “reforms,” its CA-surpluses, and its debt policy for Europe, chart Heiner Flassbeck www.relevante-oekonomik.com/2025/10/06/d...

#SMRs Small Modular Reactors are still a next-decade#technology; only 4 are in operation globally, and 5 are under construction, chart #MorganStanley

#France
#French PM #Lecornu resigns – @bloomberg.com TV live

#SNB #Swiss CB is keeping investors guessing on whether it will be the world’s 1st CB to reintroduce negative rates, chart @economics
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

That’s what Bloomberg envisages, with reductions in borrowing costs predicted for 15 major CBs out of the 23 featured in this guide. Apart from #BoJ, which is seen raising rates, the rest are anticipated to stay on hold, chart @economics
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#FX
US #dollar has lost over 12% of its value against #Swiss franc this year. As a result, gains on the US stock markets have largely evaporated for #Swiss investors, chart #SGKB_News

In 3Q2025, risk assets continued to post positive returns. #Japan's #TOPIX index reached new all-time highs, supported by a US- #Japan #trade deal and hopes for #fiscal stimulus - chart #JPMorganAM

The drivers of a steeper curve matter. In this environment, upward pressure on long rates from chronic deficits, #tariff -related #inflation and a near-term #fiscal boost create a challenging backdrop for long-duration strategies, chart #JPMorganAM

Don’t Trust low #Unemployment Numbers

#PartTime employment isn’t about “lifestyle choice”

acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/dont-trust...

It is is strongly linked to #austerity -driven weak #demand, precarisation of labor markets, and inadequate #social policies.