Ivetta Gerasimchuk

Post 4/4
Which of these breaks first: fiscal space, markets, energy systems, geopolitics — or else?

Post 3/4 — 2026–2035
• 🍋Fiscal squeeze: budgets tighten everywhere
• 🌋AI disrupts labour markets
• 📈Fossil fuel demand peaks
• China overtakes the US by nominal GDP 📉
• 🎲A systemic shock we can’t yet name

Post 2/4 — 2016–2025
• 🧠AI went mass-market
• 👑COVID normalised state intervention
• 🛢️Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reset energy security
• 🗳️ Populist nationalism reshaped elections across regions (not just the US)
• 🥵Climate extremes became everyday risk

⸻

Post 1/4
We overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate how much changes in a decade. Here’s my subjective short list of the forces that reshaped 2016–2025 — and will shape 2026-2025.

Quote from IISD's Angela Picciariello saying, "Outside the G20, countries are taking action to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. If the G20 as a group won't lead, countries, individually or in coalitions, must step up, restate their commitment, and move fast to deliver it."

The #G20 has not renewed its longstanding commitment to fossil fuel subsidy reform—but country leaders can still take action.

First agreed in 2009, G20 countries have reaffirmed their commitment each year—yet in yesterday’s Leaders’ Declaration, it is noticeably absent.
🧵1/5

40 fossil fuel-producing countries have now submitted new national climate plans.
🛢️ 31 mention fossil fuel production—largely focused on reducing emissions
👷‍♀️ 13 refer to concrete #JustTransition measures
⚠️ Some plan to increase fossil fuel production

Learn more: www.iisd.org/articles/ins...

World Energy Outlook 2025 – Analysis - IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

Our top takeaways from @iea.org’s latest #WorldEnergyOutlook:

⛰️Peak fossil fuel demand is coming, contrary to oil & gas producer narratives,
☀️Renewables are the fastest-growing source of energy,
💰Net zero is cheaper than fossil fuel dependence.

🔎 www.iea.org/reports/worl...

🧵1/10

📣The Int’l Court of Justice has ruled that countries can be held liable for failing to address #ClimateChange & ⬇️ emissions.

The decision could have far reaching consequences for fossil fuel producers & for national climate plans due this year.

IISD's @nataliejones.bsky.social explains: 🧵1/6

How can gov'ts incorporate their commitments to transition away from fossil fuels in upcoming national climate plans?

Join the discussion with int'l experts & gov’t representatives for a closer look at expectations for new NDCs ahead of COP30.

Register: www.iisd.org/events/advan...

📢 #HIRING Are you a skilled storyteller with communications experience?

We're looking for a multitasker with a talent for making complex ideas accessible to join the communications team for our Resilience program.

Learn more & apply today 👉 iisd.bamboohr.com/careers/793

Opinion: In 2025, governments must ‘electrify, baby, electrify’ Despite Donald Trump's anti-climate stance and a weak COP29 climate finance deal, 2025 is the year for governments to prioritize the clean energy transition.

Trump is going to make a lot of noise today about boosting fossil fuels. But the case for transitioning to clean energy has never been stronger.

Governments need to focus on the fundamentals in their next round of national climate plans.

My take in @devex.com:

www.devex.com/news/opinion...

📣Government support for fossil fuels totalled at least $1.5 trillion in 2023, the second highest 🌍 total on record. @iisd.bsky.social www.iisd.org/articles/ins...

Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability: A landmark pact for trade and sustainability The ACCTS pact, signed by Costa Rica, Iceland, New Zealand, and Switzerland, aligns trade and environmental policies, tackling fossil fuel subsidies, eco-labels, and green trade.

The Agreement on Climate Change, Trade, & Sustainability (#ACCTS) is the first legally binding deal to prohibit #FossilFuelSubsidies👏.
 
Unfortunately, the agreement’s numerous loopholes put progress at risk ➿. Here is more by @iisd.bsky.social : www.iisd.org/articles/dee...

An OECD Deal on Ending Oil and Gas Export Credits is Urgently Needed. Here’s What it Could Look Like The EU, United Kingdom, and Canada have introduced a proposal to end oil and gas financing by export credit agencies at the OECD. Pressure is building to reach a deal by the end of 2024.

There is still a chance to get some good climate news before the end of the year if the OECD negotiations succeed on 10 December. Signatories of the OECD ECA Arrangement, our eyes are on you! Great explainer by @nataliejones.bsky.social www.iisd.org/articles/exp...

🌍 OUT NOW: Our Statement on COP 29 Outcome:
“The goal is still far from meeting the actual finance needs for effective climate mitigation and adaptation, but it represents meaningful progress” - Patricia Fuller, Pres & CEO of IISD.

🔗 Read our full take: iisd.org/articles/sta...
#COP29Azerbaijan

Compare with the agreed #NCQG of $300 B per year: in 2023, subsidies to #FossilFuels were at least $378 B in the 23 rich countries who are responsible for climate finance provision under the #ParisAgreement iisd.org/articles/state…

With the UAE dialogue decision now pushed to next year, the "UAE consensus" on the energy transition, including transitioning away from fossil fuels, 3xRE and 2xEE is on life support. #COP29

Climate negotiations continue at the same unrelenting pace as the climate impacts they hope to avert. There is a clear need to support negotiators who are ov... On Behalf of My Delegation: A survival guide for new and lonely climate change negotiators

Webinar to launch On Behalf of my Delegation - a survival guide for new and lonely climate negotiations.
youtu.be/Swr7uz9PV7o?...

Brussels considers support for solar panel makers as Chinese imports flood market Global overcapacity leaves European manufacturers ‘on the brink’

Brussels considers support for solar panel makers as Chinese imports flood market

https://on.ft.com/49bEmzI

Having “all fossil fuel phaseout” in the GST text should not be expected as a miracle. Fossil fuel phaseout will happen regardless of GST, but it can happen either orderly & in a way supporting the vulnerable, or in a devastating ugly way. Those who oppose FFPO language are supporting chaos.

Massachusetts Just Took a Big Step Away from Natural Gas. Which States Might Follow? - Inside Climat... Natural gas may be on the way out in Massachusetts. State utility regulators on Wednesday issued a sweeping ruling that sets a framework for reducing the use of gas for heating as part of a larger str...

Massachusetts is the first state in the US requiring gas companies to phase down fossil gas for heating.

The state set out a clear path toward electrification of heating and could lead regulators in other states to follow suit.

HT Bruce Nilles
insideclimatenews.org/news/0712202...

Just five countries – US, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK – are responsible for over half (51%) of all planned oil and gas field developments from now to 2050.

Article in COP28 newsletter ECO

Fossil fuel subsidy reform: Dutch initiative must turn the tables We've had enough "transparency" and "dialogue" around fossil fuel subsidy reform. It's time to change the defaults

Thank you @climatehome.bsky.social for running my op-ed on the fresh coalition led by the Netherlands at #COP28. We’ve had enough “transparency” and “dialogue” around fossil fuel subsidy reform. It’s time to change the defaults. www.climatechangenews.com/2023/12/09/d...

OPEC Leader Tells Members to Block Any Climate Summit Deal to Curb Fossil Fuels In a letter, the secretary general of the oil cartel called on countries in the group to “reject any text or formula that targets energy.”

Breaking News: The head of the OPEC oil cartel told members to block any deal at the COP28 climate summit that would target fossil fuels.

Oil-reliant Azerbaijan chosen to host Cop29 climate talks Azerbaijan gets two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, one of the highest percentages of any country in the world

another oil cop toot toot