Talouki

If you’re gonna split hairs, at least be correct. We all know where the majority of Islander fans live…

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +120
#GoBolts & #Oilers goes to the wire, probably a draw. Each team's achilles heel is on show tonight, with TBL away and EDM home records show there's work to be done. Both hover around a ~57% W or Draw in 1P. I have it 46/54 but TBL should be +115

NEW YORK ISLANDERS +110
#Isles play down to their opponents at home, but show up for marquee matchups. Not technically NY/LA, but LAWN GILAND holds it down. #GoKingsGo play decent away, but draw alot, 8 times in 11 games. I have it 50/50 and +110 is fair.

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS -104
Home #CBJ are STINGY on D and FEISTY on O. They've knocked off giants TOR, EDM, TBL, and CAR. #LetsGoFlyers are 5-4-4 away in the 1P, but tend to beat teams lesser or equal. CBJ isn't a goliath, but they're better. I have it 52/47 but CBJ should be -113

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +130
I love this matchup. #GoAvsGo are an average road team in 1P. #LetsGoPens have a 62.50% W or Draw % at home. Wings PEPPERED the Avs last game in the first period. Let's see if the Pens can actually finish. I have this game 47%/53% but PIT should be +111

12/10 NHL First Period Moneylines:
PIT +8.82% EV
CBJ +3.88% EV
NYI +3.46% EV
TBL +2.24% EV

Big Slate. Big value.

Write up thread 🧵👇

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12/9 NHL First Period Moneylines Recap:
↔️ 0-0-2
↔️+0 Us
↔️+0.00% ROI

Hawks let in a SHG with :43 secs left to push😢

Ducks claw through 2 penalties and get a greasy one to push🙂

We live to fight another day with a big slate tonight.

ANAHEIM DUCKS +115
My top 5 teams in sports are the ones that MAKE MONEY. But my go to favorites are the ones no one pays attention to. The Ducks are STILL undefeated on the road in 1P, 6-0-4. MTL looks better, but we gotta ride this out. I have it 48%/52% but ANA should be +107.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS +170
Long line. However, the books are off ~6 points. I have the hawks at +164, or a 38% chance to win. This is a pure value play for 1U. Sure, both teams are at major crossroads, but the home/road 1P W% splits are 71%/67% so there's some data backing the idea.

12/6 NHL First Period Moneylines:

CHI +2.43% EV
ANA +4.01% EV

More road dogs, more profit?

Write up thread 🧵👇

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12/7 NHL First Period Moneylines Recap:

Hawks get 2 Gs from defensemen, one with 12 secs left, to secure some bag. But DET can’t finish any of their 6 scoring chances.

😢 1-1
💰 -3.65 U

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🚨 MAX VALUE ALERT 🚨
DETROIT RED WINGS +135
Even though this is a pretty tight matchup, this is a masher for me. Detroit is at a crossroads and Colorado is still struggling to start games on time. Both teams played Thursday and DET is on a 4-game skid and looking for a fast start to show some life.

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS +135
Bad as their record is, the Hawks are a respectable 40 min hockey team. At home, they're 5-4-2 in 1Ps. The Jets are average on the road, at 5-8-3. Look for the CHI vets to start quick to prove to the new coach they should be on the ice and not in a suit & tie in the stands.

12/7 NHL First Period Moneylines:

CHI +1.35% EV

🚨 MAX VALUE ALERT 🚨
DET +8.96%

Write up thread 🧵👇

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12/6 NHL First Period Moneylines Recap:

MAX VALUE HIT
🔥🔥🔥

But DAL lets one squeak in.

😢 1-1-1
⛔️ -0.3 Us
💰 -7% ROI

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MAX VALUE HIT
🔥🔥🔥

We are now 4-0-1 in December on max value plays. But I am also hating myself for not sticking to the program 🤦

Live and learn

♠️WILD CARD: SEA +1.77%♦️
I’m laying off this game, but there’s slight value here. If you go, go small. I have this 1P NJD 63%-37%. NJD is super juiced, providing value on SEA, but that’s it. There’s nothing there supporting a call on SEA.

🚨 MAX VALUE: COLUMBUS +170 🚨
This line is VERY long. A play like this is calling for 4+ Us and I may hate myself later, but laying 1U seems fair for a BIG dog. The value is CBJ is 5-3-5 on the road 1P while VAN is a meager 1-6-4 1P at home. I have this 1P VAN 58%-42% but CBJ should be priced +143.

DALLAS -110
This one’s tight. Dallas plays average on the road, but Vegas is beatable at home in 1P. Vegas is 7-5-1 at home. DAL is 5-3-5 on the road. If this was a full game ML, I’d be on VGK, but I expect a quick DAL start to eek out a W or draw. I have this 1P DAL 53%-47% with them priced at -116

WASHINGTON +110
Against all odds, the Capitals are a staggering 6-1-4 on the road in 1P. Repeat, they win or draw 90.91% of the time. Toronto is 6-6-3 at home in 1P. The data says TOR is the better team, but not by much. I have this 1P TOR 52%-48%, with WSH priced at +106.

12/6 NHL First Period Moneylines:
WSH +1.84% EV
DAL +2.52% EV

🚨 MAX VALUE ALERT 🚨
CBJ +11.08%

♠️WILD CARD♦️
SEA +1.77%

Write up thread 🧵👇

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12/5 NHL First Period Moneylines Recap:

🔥 2-2-0
✅ +2.5 Units
💰 +23% ROI

Buffalo continues to be a top money maker in 1P at home. Slow starts for CAR, PHI and CGY but we’ll take the profit!

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FAVORITES:

CAR & CGY both play opponents coming off spectacular victories which is causing line chaos. After going down 0-4 against BUF (which I was on), COL pulled off the miracle. STL shocked WPG. The data doesn’t lie:

CAR should be in the -155 range and CGY about -130.

UNDERDOGS:

All teams at home. All have high winning percentages at home in 1P:

BUF 78.57%
MTL 76.92%
PHI 61.54%

Buffalo is a top money producer at home 1P. Montreal draws a lot but Nashville on a B2B and has advantage. Philly’s the wildcard.

12/5 NHL First Period Moneylines:

BUF +5.94% EV
MTL +2.11% EV
PHI +4.17% EV
CAR +5.41% EV
CGY +1.84% EV

Write up thread 🧵👇

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12/4 NHL Moneyline recap:

↔️ PUSH

Blackhawks score a minute and a half into the game but can’t hold it. Ends up 1-1 after 1. They go on to look absolutely miserable.

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12/4 NHL First Period Moneylines: Small slate, nice value. CHI at home are 5-4-1 in the first period. BOS on the road are 3-4-4. Taking the hawks at +5.51% EV to have one of their patented “where tf did that come from” games. #betsky #GamblingBluesky #SportsBettingBluesky #sportsbetting #nhlbets

12/4 NHL First Period Moneylines:

Small slate, nice value. CHI at home are 5-4-1 in the first period. BOS on the road are 3-4-4. Taking the hawks at +5.51% EV to have one of their patented “where tf did that come from” games.

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12/3 NHL First Period Moneylines Recap:

🔥 1-0-1
✅ +4.8 Units
💰 +96% ROI
🚨 MAX VALUE HIT

Yesterday’s write up on BUF/COL was on point. Books were correct on the full game, but severely underestimated BUF in the first period.

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🔥🔥 MAX VALUE HIT 🔥🔥

Sabres absolutely destroy Colorado for a nice start to the night!

LETS GO BUFFALO 🦬

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12/3 NBA First Quarter Moneylines: DET +11.94% EV MEM +3.93% EV GSW +10.76% EV HOU +3.65% EV LAC +2.43% EV #bets #betsky #betting #GamblingBluesky #SportsBettingBluesky #gambling #sportsbetting #Pikkit #nhlbets

12/3 NBA First Quarter Moneylines:

DET +11.94% EV
MEM +3.93% EV
GSW +10.76% EV
HOU +3.65% EV
LAC +2.43% EV

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