Alastair (Ally) MacBeath

Cashing in on conflict: Illicit economies and the Myanmar civil war For over 60 years, illicit economies have fueled Myanmar’s conflicts, shaping political power, financing insurgencies, and sustaining armed actors. Since the 2021 coup, the interplay between organized...

globalinitiative.net/analysis/ill...

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Any future resolution, whether federal or regional, must rebuild institutional and societal resilience to prevent criminal networks from dictating the country’s future.

My latest report for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime calls for international cooperation, policy interventions, and targeted economic reforms to break Myanmar’s dependency on illicit markets.

Without targeted policies to disrupt illicit markets and provide alternative economic solutions, Myanmar risks repeating the cycles of instability that have defined its history.

Past ceasefires and peace agreements have failed to address the role of illicit economies, treating them as bargaining chips rather than tackling their long-term consequences. As Myanmar moves towards an uncertain future, any viable political resolution must confront the influence of organized crime

These criminal markets have not only funded armed groups but have also shaped power balances within Myanmar. Since the 2021 coup, the interplay between organized crime and conflict, the so-called ‘crime-conflict nexus’ - has deepened, making criminal markets a critical factor in Myanmar’s future.

Illicit economies in Myanmar are deeply intertwined with the country’s political structures and conflict dynamics. For over 60 years, illicit economies have fuelled Myanmar’s conflicts, shaping political power, financing insurgencies and sustaining armed actors.