Ben Moran

That sucks mate!! Here if you need to chat.

P.S- the spite can be self-directed!!

Make no mistake. One of the biggest drivers for finishing a PhD is spite.

"I DON'T NEED YOU TO FUCKING REWRITE WHAT I'VE JUST WRITTEN!"

This is an excellent point that generalizes.
Researchers often defend suboptimal practices by referring to future studies with better designs.

But: Why would anybody run those studies when you can just throw a bunch of variables into a regression and make sweeping "preliminary" claims?

My own TLDR for the message from this paper:

statsepi.substack.com/p/sorry-what...

A "methods primer" article in the journal "BMJ Medicine", titled "Factors associated with: problems of using exploratory multivariable regression to identify causal risk factors"

We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?

This is excellent, and I'm so glad this paper was finally written, and so clearly as well. I basically write an equivalent every time I am consulting with someone proposing this type of study, and I'm so glad I can save my effort and just send them this instead!

TopMedTalk: Perioperative Profiles - Kate Leslie Andy Cumpstey interviews internationally renowned anaesthetist and researcher, Kate Leslie, Head of Research in the Department of Anaesthesia and Pain Management at the Royal Melbourne Hospital and Ho...

My journey in anaesthesia research @bjajournals.bsky.social @thermh.bsky.social @anzca.bsky.social @anzcactn.bsky.social @unimelb.bsky.social topmedtalk.libsyn.com/perioperativ...

after some cool theoretical background, I think these slides sum up Thomas Lumley's talk well

especially "resist mathematical defaults", "rank tests have stronger assumptions than the t-test" & "ordinal data is not the easy option"

a very different take from Frank Harrell's writing on the subject!

"Pavlovian causal inference": the inherent human tendency to infer causation from mere association, even when we know we ought not to.

Yeah!! I was thinking Hitchikers guide first and foremost, followed by the Strong Ion Difference!!

Why wouldn’t you send it with the correct orientation!?! We’re not savages!!!

The correct one?

There’s virtually no pre-surgical history in the case report, and much makes it hard to identify a potential prodrome.

Absolutely! This power could be yours, with only 5,000 covariates!

Ghostbusters firehouse (which is a real, operational firehouse) with a 15-20’ tall inflatable Stay-Puff marshmallow man in the alley next door.

Some days I get a treat on my walk in to teach…

Key point from my invasive CO talk the other day #CHEST2025

The recording is now available so that you can confirm that I indeed have a German accent and color-match my outfits with my Zoom background.

youtu.be/YL0co26ng-g?...

Guillain-Barré syndrome after surgery: a literature review Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare postoperative complication that is sometimes characterized by serious motor weakness and prolonged weaning from mechanical ventilation. Although the exact natur...

A more plausible mechanism would be the inflammatory effects of surgery, rather than toxicity/triggering from a spinal. I feel like the spinal is an innocent bystander.

In this SR of case reports, the majority of surgeries are spine and cardiac.

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

I think it is a coincidence. GBS can occur within 4 weeks of campylobacter infection. Preop diarrhoea can be common in some populations (eg bariatrics ~ nearly 10%), and it isn’t usually asked about.

Causal inference using multivariate generalized linear mixed-effects models ABSTRACT. Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimens is an essential problem in precision medicine. It is challenging because

Haven’t tried it yet. I used the join by patient specific random effects for mine (longitudinal data). Here’s a paper that solidifies the rationale:

academic.oup.com/biometrics/a...

Or you could join with a patient specific random effect (ie using (1|p|id) in each outcome model), but this isn’t really modelling the residuals. May be helpful if modelling an exposure model and an outcome model (similar to doubly robust causal estimators- eg Augmented IPTW/g-comp) will suffice.

Does anyone know a workaround for modeling residual correlations in multivariate models in {brms}? It only works for Gaussian and Student distributions right now, but maybe someone has a hack…
#RStats (Maybe @solomonkurz.bsky.social?)

Gaussian Copulas · Issue #1317 · paul-buerkner/brms Hey Paul, I'm currently working on adding gaussian copulas to brms using @spinkney's implementations over in https://github.com/spinkney/helpful_stan_functions/blob/main/functions/copula/centered_g...

Andrew Johnson has worked up a copula function for brms (which is on the list for version 3 release). Here’s a link to the feature request:

github.com/paul-buerkne...

- Psych- long term ICU pts freq have PTSD/anxiety/depression and may be triggered by being in hospital.
- Likely to have post-ICU syndrome.

Overall, I’d lean towards regional techniques, but thorough discussion with the pt is mandatory.

I would say it’s a risk:benefit thing. In particular:
- Potentiation of muscle relaxants if neurological/muscle sequelae.
- Autonomic issues- ?dysreflexic, non-compensatory ⬇️HR/BP
- Respiratory issues (part if long vent/trache)
- Neuropathy, including pain (may be blamed on spinal if worsens).

Causal inference with DAGs is just like capybaras on underwater bicycles. Any questions?

People sometimes ask why we want to rate DAGs. Couldn't we just rate statistical models instead?

We like to explain it with capybaras and bicycles.

"the Afghanisdag", a massive tangle of arrows and noun phrases, possibly describing a counterinsurgency problem: lethal within 20ft in briefing environments.

Hello Bluesky!

We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.

Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?

1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"