Kelly Hereid

"deepest possible learning" 💀

In 2022 (back when #Twitter was still a thing), I had made this #meme about the state of #urban #climate #research based on an #xkcd comic.

With all the recent changes in the #publication and #funding spaces due to the #AI + #machinelearning hype cycle, here is an updated version.

Called out! Hey I'll never complain about a killer new temp dataset

BCD-ME 1° bias-corrected (QDM) temperature time series Time series of daily near-surface mean and maximum air temperature from CMIP6 large ensembles, bias-corrected to four reanalysis products using Quantile Delta Mapping, on a near-global 1° grid

See:
📈 Links to the data: app.earthmover.io/marketplace/... , app.earthmover.io/marketplace/...
📜 Our preprint here for all the details, caveats, etc.: eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
💻 Sample code to access the data natively in xarray: github.com/ks905383/bcd...

🚨We're excited to announce our initial launch of the Bias-Corrected and Downscaled Massive Ensemble (BCD-ME), the largest collection of analysis-ready future temperature data out there, ideal for getting a better sense of what's driving the _climate_ spread in climate impact projections!
🧵 below:

"2021–2023: Extreme Years of Global Drought in the Context of Long- and Short-Term Hydroclimate Trends"

New work, led by LDEO PhD student Aandishah Samara (w/ JE Smerdon, R Seager):

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Economists love to point to insurance as the market-based solution for adaptation - allow premiums to reflect risk and adaptation will follow.

In the real world there are limits to the effectiveness of this approach.

Nice commentary by Jo Weil and Jesse Gourevitch:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I'm reminded of this point from an interesting energy system modeling paper from a few months ago

Cost difference bw renewables/fossil lower than it first appears - renewable pays up front, but fossil has economic/geopolitical price volatility that adds cost (and is rarely priced in)

Operation Epic Fury Making Sense of the Energy Risks and beyond

A useful piece that underscores the benefit of energy sources that do not have to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. sunshine & wind). Renewable energy is an investment in geopolitical resilience.

Central Arkansas may have experienced repeated large-magnitude earthquakes, according to an analysis involving sand blows and other liquefaction features found near Marianna, Arkansas. #SRL ⚒️

buff.ly/zEe6bRy

GIRLS GET POCKETS

On 9/11, every class was cancelled to watch the news. Except AP physics. The Pentagon was hit while we did science that day.

At the time I thought my teacher was a lunatic.

Now I'm not so sure.

The dynamic described here - many huge computer warehouses detecting the same grid voltage excursion and simultaneously tripping to backup power - is the same basic effect that led to the Iberian power outage last year, just on the demand side rather than supply. Should stagger their trip thresholds

Natural gas utilities will pass these wholesale price spikes straight through to ratepayers by raising retail prices. Before the late Obama years the US exported almost no natural gas, so domestic prices were insulated from global markets

Homebrew that is not *quite* cool enough to pitch yeast

Now #millennialmaxxing listening to Duran Duran's Ordinary World (1993) while trying to chill the last 5 degrees on my homebrew wort in the tub with my kids' bath toys...

My Life in France, Julia Child w Alex Prud'homme

My Life in France, Julia Child w Alex Prud'homme

A long read aloud w @mattrshelton.bsky.social. Came for the cooking, which is fabulous, but stayed for discussions of urbanism, the sacrifices of civil service, McCarthyism, and the cutthroat world of publishing, which all feel fresh as a daisy.

15/

Microsoft is the carbon removal market The company bought 93% of global carbon removals last year, new research shows.

Microsoft bought 93% of all the carbon removal credits globally last year. This is absurd, and no way to determine which method might actually work and scale. Carbon dioxide removal research and development should be government-funded and government-led.

A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025 for the Directorate of Geosciences.

5/10

Map showing bar graphs of all major CA reservoirs. Most of them are above or at historical averages for the date.

Most reservoirs are running at or above historical averages thanks to that science. A decade ago they wouldn't have been able to retain so much water this late in the season. But since forecast error went from 33% to 3% with lidar, we can hold onto more drops now!
cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/Resco...

There are a few others, but yeah it's a small crowd 😉

Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about our Changing Planet, Kate Marvel

Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about our Changing Planet, @drkatemarvel.bsky.social

A short mid thread 🧵 for finally getting to the book that inspired my new year's resolution to read 50 books this year.

Look, I don't read a lot of climate books. Too close to the day job.

Read this one.

14.1/

I saw no point in learning to do math, which I believed to be a way of demonstrating to the universe that you were boring enough for a career in actuarial science or tax law.* * Both of which turn out to be interesting and highly relevant for actually addressing climate change. -Thanks!

So big kudos, @drkatemarvel.bsky.social. Thanks for the shout-out to the most boring corner of climate science, the folks who passed on giving you a tenure track job were dumb, and I hope a few more climate types take your lovely book for a spin.

Now back to your regularly scheduled book 🧵

14.5/

And you know what? Organizing science in new ways like how it touches our humanity makes us better scientists. @katharinehayhoe.com correctly points out over and over that information deficit model ain't it, so trying new experiments to share science is exactly what we should be doing.

14.4/

But I know Kate is an amazing writer, so I tried it anyway, and glad I did. Readable science from first principles to cutting edge, along with history of the field where even coming from the field I learned new things (and I too will choose to believe that Louisa Tyndall was a murderess)

14.3/

I saw a lot of reactions from the climate sci set like, why would I read a book about climate feelings, isn't the science enough?

Which I kind of get. I'm a climate scientist who works on disasters in insurance, you have to compartmentalize at least a little bit to get out of bed every day

14.2/

Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about our Changing Planet, Kate Marvel

Human Nature: Nine Ways to Feel about our Changing Planet, @drkatemarvel.bsky.social

A short mid thread 🧵 for finally getting to the book that inspired my new year's resolution to read 50 books this year.

Look, I don't read a lot of climate books. Too close to the day job.

Read this one.

14.1/

A composite image of me from the red carpet at the Hoppers premiere with the Hoppers logo and several hoppers characters.

After about 5 years (!) of keeping secrets, I am so excited that Disney Pixar's Hoppers is finally coming out on March 6th!

Back in 2021, Pixar emailed me asking if I could give a talk about my research to their employees. Then another talk. And another.

📸 Disney/Jesse Grant/Getty Images

How to get people excited about transit "It will literally be your best selling t-shirt, it will get you so much PR, and if anyone interprets this inappropriately that's a them problem"

I wrote about the one actually great thing that happened this week

U or staple, thank you, next!

Let's expend this engineering ingenuity figuring out how to get me TO the rack without getting pancaked by a car instead, shall we?

Love this whole 🧵

When Next-Generation Geothermal Meets First-of-a-Kind Reality - CleanTechnica Closed-loop geothermal promised scalable, firm energy. Early data from Eavor’s German project shows where physics, cost, and drilling risk intersect.

Michael Barnard (who I think is too negative on geothermal for electricity) - wrote this on Eavor specifically:

cleantechnica.com/2026/01/15/w...