Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla

Its worth noting that when the first modern climate models were published in 1970 it was hardly clear that there was a warming trend; if anything there had been flat or slightly cooling global temperatures for the past three decades:

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".

Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

🚨 Recruiting Two PhD/MS Students 🚨

I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall

Tropical deforestation is associated with considerable heat-related mortality - Nature Climate Change The authors assess the impacts of tropical deforestation and its subsequent local warming on human heat-related mortality. They estimate that deforestation-related warming (+0.27 °C) is associated wit...

🌳 Deforestation and deadly heat

A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year.

Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions.

🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

#SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪

Thanks, Prasad!!

Thanks!!

Our paper aims to provide an ML-based view of mid-latitude S2S predictability that could help open new scientific pathways and increase our ability to handle weather-related risks.

Check it out here! doi.org/10.1175/AIES...

Leveraging ML, we show how predictability sources vary across seasons and regimes. Data-driven models confirmed previously found sources of predictability (like ENSO and MJO) but also highlighted new opportunities for improved predictions, like stratosphere-troposphere and land surface interactions.

🚨I’m excited to share that the final version of my first PhD paper is already published! With my amazing advisor, Maria Molina, we characterized the predictability of North American weather regimes.

Katie Dagon @ncar-ucar.bsky.social presents our next Lecture in #Climate #Data Science!

📅 THURS, 7/24/25
🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week *
📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom
💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202...

@climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI

Please consider submitting an abstract to the Weather Regime session that I am co-chairing at the AMS 106th Annual Meeting. 👍🏼

New Article: "When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis" rdcu.be/evfGV

A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach We introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) for learning local causal dynamical structure underlying space-time data CaStLe enables previously infeasible analyses of grid-cell-level ...

Published in JGR:MLC! We introduce CaStLe (Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning), a method for grid-level space-time causal discovery that scales efficiently in high-dimensional Earth system data. It enables causal analysis of grid-level processes like eruption plumes.

#EarthScience #CausalDiscovery

👏👏👏👏

Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming - Nature Geoscience Climate model simulations suggest that both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the southwestern United States in recent decades, thus maki...

⚒️ Article: Both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the Southwestern US in recent decades

@ynkuo.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Recipients of a U.S. Climate Science Fellowship Are Put on Unpaid Leave

Under Trump, NOAA ran the most recent competition for their highly prestigious postdoc program in climate and global change — but funded no one, wasting huge amounts of applicant and reviewer time.

It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.

Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming - Nature Geoscience The duration of long heatwaves increases at an accelerating rate with warming such that a large increase in the risk of long-lasting heatwaves results from relatively modest warming, according to an a...

As the UK prepares for an extended heatwave over coming days, interesting new @natgeosci.nature.com research suggests longer heatwaves as climate warms #climate #heatwave

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Climate mitigation and adaptation measures are not costs. They are investments.

The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.

Invest now to reduce costs in future.

YouTube video by The Weather & Climate Livestream The 100-Hour Weather & Climate Livestream, Part 1

The 💯-hour Weather and Climate Livestream is now available on YouTube! Head to www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWR... to rewatch your favorite talks, catch up on the parts you missed, and learn how you can help Save America's Forecasts. And there's still time to call your reps at wclivestream.com/act

Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling

Our first paper on the CREDIT AI weather prediction framework is now published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science! Updated paper includes comparisons with pangu and more details about the model. Check it out at www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Yesterday from Iowa City ☁️

How 'tropical waves' carry confounding clues about huge hurricanes The patterns found in the atmosphere often uneventfully dissipate, but occasionally feed giant hurricanes.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started but have you ever wondered how hurricane seeds form? Read about it 👇
Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social ‪‪@usatoday.com for the article!
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability Coastal sea level records suggest that Pacific Ocean sea level and climate trends are unlikely to persist over the coming decades.

While global mean sea level rise over recent decades has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases, the regional pattern in the Pacific has likely resulted from sulfate aerosol emissions - with important implications for the coming decades... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

After Cuts, a Kentucky Weather Office Scrambles for Staffing as Severe Storms Bear Down

9 people were killed in a tornado last night in KY. The NWS office responsible for that area has faced some of the most extreme cuts by the Trump administration, including the loss of overnight forecasting.

Last night, they were rushing to find help for the office.

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/w...

A chocolate cake with red and white decorations and lit candles shaped as the number 75. Bold text reads: ‘The NSF Turns 75 Today. What has it done over the past 7 decades?’ The background is a celebratory red with a spray-paint texture.

HAPPY 75th, NSF!

We’re celebrating this milestone by highlighting some of NSF’s most transformative accomplishments—innovations that have shaped our world and continue to drive progress in health, technology, the environment, and beyond.

Read on 🧵(1/11):

A hand drawn graph showing the rise in global land temperatures published in 1938.

87 years ago.

In April 1938, Guy Callendar published the first evidence from thermometer observations that the world’s land areas were warming.

He also linked the observed warming to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ from burning coal.

87 years ago.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Contrary to popular belief, what is important in science is as much its spirit as its product: it is as much the openmindedness, the primacy of criticism, the submission to the unforeseen, however upsetting, as the result, however new that may be. – Francois Jacob
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The global human impact on biodiversity - Nature Key measures of biodiversity were quantified and found to be affected by human pressures that shifted community composition and decreased local diversity across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecos...

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Yep.

We can also explore trends in extreme months.

The wettest month of the year has become 20% wetter in the period since 1836.

#RainfallRescue