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@ivanwilli.bsky.social

46 Followers  |  41 Following  |  1 Posts  |  Joined: 23.04.2025  |  1.5718

Latest posts by ivanwilli.bsky.social on Bluesky

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sex1 sex2 sex3 sex4 sex5 sex6 sex7 sex8 Boy Girl Boy Boy Boy Boy Girl Girl Boy Girl Girl Boy Boy Boy Girl Boy Girl Girl Boy Girl Boy Boy Boy Girl Boy Boy Boy Girl Boy . Boy . Girl Boy Boy Boy Girl Girl Girl Girl Boy . . . . Boy

What if every family stops having children as soon as they have a boy? Would the sex ratio end up skewed one way or the other?

This is what it would look like for 25 random families following that rule (with a normal male/female sex ratio of 105/100.)

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02.12.2025 03:15 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 2
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Gaza: Study Reveals Unprecedented Losses of Life & Life Expectancy
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE

25.11.2025 10:11 β€” πŸ‘ 34    πŸ” 20    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
Launch: World Urbanization Prospects 2025 | Population Division The World Urbanization Prospects 2025 will be launched on Tuesday, 18 November 2025 at 12:45 (EST).

Today, launching the World Urbanization Prospects 2025 with new UN estimates and projections of urbanization for
237 countries and areas of the world & 12,000+ cities with 50,000+ inhabitants in 2025. www.un.org/development/... - see also new online datasets and plots: population.un.org/wup/

18.11.2025 17:50 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 2
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LEdecomp: Decompose Life Expectancy by Age (and Cause) A set of all-cause and cause-specific life expectancy sensitivity and decomposition methods, including Arriaga (1984) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307%2F2061029" target="_top">doi:10.2307/2061029<...

Over a dozen ways to decompose life expectancy, all in one (we hope) friendly interface. Please have a look at the LEdecomp R package cran.r-project.org/web/packages... See the function LEdecomp() for access to all of them. If we left something out, please shout! #rstats #demography #mortality

12.11.2025 10:57 β€” πŸ‘ 35    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Check out this conference if you work on topics related to kinship structure and dynamics (within and beyond the household), caregiving, intergenerational processes, family bereavement, LGBTQ+ & chosen kinship, etc. @iussp.bsky.social Submit by 21 Jan 2026 πŸ‘‡ www.demogr.mpg.de/go/kinship-conference

06.11.2025 10:33 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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4/11/2025 - DemoSoc Seminar: Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza - Departament | Facultat de Ciències Polítiques i Socials - UPF

Measuring the Scale of Loss: Life Expectancy and Conflict Mortality in Gaza.
Enrique Acosta, Centre d'Estudis DemogrΓ fics (CED)
Come join us: Next Tuesday 4.11 at noon. @demosocupf.bsky.social
www.upf.edu/web/politiqu...

29.10.2025 18:14 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Postdoctoral Researchers in Demography and Population Projections The Population Research Institute (PRI) at VΓ€estΓΆliitto – Family Federation of Finland and the University of Helsinki invite applications for three positions as Postdoctoral research fellow to study…

3 full-time positions on Probabilistic Migration Modeling at University of @helsinki.fi in collaboration with @mpidr.bsky.social and Mikko MyrskylΓ€.

DM me if you want to know more, as I'm part of the project. Definitely DM me if you heard of conformal prediction

www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/post...

27.10.2025 07:57 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Postdoctoral Researchers in Demography and Population Projections The Population Research Institute (PRI) at VΓ€estΓΆliitto – Family Federation of Finland and the University of Helsinki invite applications for three positions as Postdoctoral research fellow to study…

Up to 3 Post-docs: Pop. Projections for Migration Scenarios, Human Capital Dev & Sust. Integration

At@pophel.bsky.social, Population Research Inst, in collab w @mpidr.bsky.social & @iiasa.ac.at .https://www.vaestoliitto.fi/en/news/postdoctoral-researchers-in-demography-and-population-projections/

24.10.2025 08:58 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Job Offer: PhD Student Position
The University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the
@mpidr.bsky.social +
@imprs-phds.bsky.social
invite applications for a 4-year PhD position. The studentship is not limited to specific topics. Apply until November 17!
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...

22.10.2025 09:23 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ™‹πŸ»β€β™€οΈπŸ™‹πŸ»β€β™€οΈπŸ™‹πŸ»β€β™€οΈ

06.10.2025 17:30 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

We are looking forward to the #HMD symposium next week πŸŽ‰

01.10.2025 07:30 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ“’ Papers from #REVES2026 with a focus on new methods for analyzing healthy life expectancy and inequalities will be great candidates for the @genus.bsky.social Healthy Life Expectancy collection by @cosmostrozza.bsky.social & @timriffe1.bsky.social !
πŸ”— tinyurl.com/HLEgenus
πŸ“Œ01/06/2026
#demography

22.09.2025 14:13 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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πŸŽ‰πŸŽŠA week full of celebrations
✨Two ERC Starting Grants for the MPIDR✨
We are thrilled to announce that @marilianep.bsky.social and @ugobas.bsky.social have each been awarded with an ERC Starting Grant by the @erc.europa.eu. #ERCStG
www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...
#ERCStartingGrant #longevity

04.09.2025 10:24 β€” πŸ‘ 85    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 4
Welcome

The next Formal Demography Working Group is Thursday September 11 at 10am ET! @phbocquier.bsky.social will present on identifying small-area diffusion of mortality transitions using non-linear modelling. Sign up details on our website! formaldemography.github.io/working_group/

03.09.2025 13:43 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3
Healthy Life Expectancy: New Methods, New Insights As countries worldwide experience population aging, understanding not just how long people live, but how many of those years are spent in good health, has ...

Health demographers πŸ“£
Calling for submissions to our w. @timriffe1.bsky.social
Healthy Life Expectancy methodology collection on @genus.bsky.social! We're seeking innovative approaches to statistical modelling and empirical analysis of health inequalities πŸ“ˆ
πŸ“† Submission deadline: 01/06/26
πŸ”— Link πŸ‘‡

02.09.2025 07:01 β€” πŸ‘ 37    πŸ” 20    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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GitHub - timriffe/mscalc: Calculates State Occupancy Times by Age from Discrete Time Transition Probabilities Calculates State Occupancy Times by Age from Discrete Time Transition Probabilities - timriffe/mscalc

bootstrapping & Horiuchi-decomposing multistate models of late drove me to write this efficient occupancy time calculator. It avoids matrix inversion, is state-space-flexible, and is faster and more memory efficient than alternatives tested thus far: github.com/timriffe/msc...

24.07.2025 22:07 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

There is an exact procedure to abridge a single-age lifetable, but is there a method to graduate an abridged one that 1. Matches lx and ex in abridged ages 2. Is fully transitive (e.g. mx-ax-qx identity and others) 3. Is reasonably smooth 4. Has standard-looking ax values (close to .5 exc tails)?

29.06.2025 06:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I tried recently splines on lx (5<=x<oag)and then fixed ax within 5y interval, replicating 5Lx. But not always a smoothed solution on ax. So... no πŸ˜…

30.06.2025 14:23 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Some good news to brighten up your feed: Our #R package πŸ“¦ DemoKin for the demographic analysis of kinship has a new website with extensive documentation and literature πŸŽ‰πŸŽˆ @mpidr.bsky.social If you don't know it yet, why not check it out? ivanwilli.github.io/DemoKin/inde...

04.06.2025 17:57 β€” πŸ‘ 47    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Welcome

Hey demographers! We're starting up the formal demography working group again! Next Friday 16 May at 11:30am ET @hggaddy.bsky.social will talk to us about challenges in estimating crisis mortality. Excited! Head to the website to sign up for Zoom details: formaldemography.github.io/working_group/

06.05.2025 20:52 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3
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With a little delay we learned that @lpcalderonb.bsky.social, who could not attend #PAA2025, won a Best Poster Award! Her colleagues put up the poster and a note from Liliana and co-author @martinkolk.bsky.social jumped in to present the research. Congrats Liliana! @popassocamerica.bsky.social

30.04.2025 09:46 β€” πŸ‘ 29    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

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