Gregory Brew

YouTube video by GZERO Media Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief

ICYMI my latest on Trump's Russia sanctions.

Why he did it, what it means, and why it's (potentially) a risky move. @gzeromedia.com @eurasiagroup.net #OOTT #TheDebrief youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...

YouTube video by GZERO Media Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief

Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.

But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.

I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...

YouTube video by GZERO Media Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off? | The Debrief

Trump sanctioned Russian oil last week.

But after this first big blow, Trump will have to take it slow--or risk letting sanctions undermine his broader agenda and his position at home.

I break it down for #TheDebrief @gzeromedia.com youtube.com/shorts/M8mUA...

FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.

Targeting Iran’s Leaders, Israel Found a Weak Link: Their Bodyguards

Among other takeaways, confirms that Israel did, in fact, attempt to assassinate Iran's key civilian and military leadership.

By a stroke of luck, the president and the rest of the SNSC walked away. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/30/u...

Inside Trump's gunboat diplomacy with Venezuela "It's the president's decision about what to do next, but Maduro should be s***ting bricks," an adviser said.

"The U.S. has never been closer to armed conflict with Venezuela."

Still flying under the radar--but maybe not for much longer. www.axios.com/2025/08/29/v...

‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoy Witkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.

"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again."

However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Europeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources say Britain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.

Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment.

I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.

Trump Administration Orders Work Halted on Wind Farm That Is Nearly Built

Trump seems committed to increasing electricity prices by any means necessary. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/c...

Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows Oil Ground Up · Episode

My chat with @roryjohnston.bsky.social on tariffs, Russia, the sanctioned oil market, and deciphering Trump's approach to the oil market.

Check it out: open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...

Tariff Tensions: US-India Trade Under the Spotlight with Russia in the Shadows Oil Ground Up · Episode

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧

In the latest episode of Oil Ground Up I spoke with @gbrew24.bsky.social about:

- Indian secondary tariff risks
- US-India trade relations
- Alternative outlets for Russian oil
- the ever-more policy-Balkanized crude market

LISTEN:
open.spotify.com/episode/7sxd...

Washington Struggles to Rein In an Emboldened Israel The Trump administration has expressed frustration with Israeli actions in recent days.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

A regional hegemon that depends on another state for its defense and (perhaps) its very existence.

No Proof Hamas Routinely Stole U.N. Aid, Israeli Military Officials Say

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/26/w...

A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted:

Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.

"Israel would have been overwhelmed" is burying the lede.

Israel was conducting a limited war. If air defenses got close to collapse, Israel would have escalated to force Tehran into standing down.

Critical infra and/or more extensive targeting of leadership come to mind.

WSJ has some specific figures on how US/Israeli interceptors performed against Iran.

Upshot: if the war had continued, Israel's air defenses would have reached a critical point--one that could have pushed Israeli leaders into more intensive escalatory options. www.wsj.com/world/israel...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.

With implications for US-China.

My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.

What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

My piece in @foreignpolicy.com on oil sanctions.

What they do, what they fail to do, and what lessons they hold for US-China policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

Why Oil Sanctions No Longer Work Oil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior.

With implications for US-China.

My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk.

Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.

For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid.

Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.

🚨🚨🚨Trump: we have bombed Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Scoop: Trump's backchannel to Iran failed after supreme leader went dark Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan quietly sought to arrange a U.S.-Iran meeting in Istanbul.

www.axios.com/2025/06/21/t...

Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey.

He even contemplated going himself.

But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.

Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran.

Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history.

Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors

Khamenei has instructed the Assembly of Experts to prepare a list of three successors, should he be slain.

Contrary to a popular theory among some Western analysts, his son Mujtaba is not in the running. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/21/w...

Thanks, I'm very active on the other place but I'll try to post here as well.