Multisector Dynamics

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in @EarthsFutureEiC from David F. Gold, Rohini S. Gupta, and Patrick M. Reed.

Exploring the Spatially Compounding Multi-Sectoral Drought Vulnerabilities in Colorado’s West Slope River Basins David F. Gold, Rohini S. Gupta, and Patrick M. Reed Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract The state of …

Insightful new study on Colorado’s West Slope Basins! Using a novel model, it shows how small climate shifts may lead to a drier regime where extreme droughts become routine, impacting local water needs and downstream deliveries to Lake Powell.
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This subset selection allows multisector models (energy, water, land) to explore climate impacts efficiently, aligning with IPCC guidelines on climate sensitivity.
For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper by Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim.

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract Ea…

Researchers have developed an uncertainty-informed method to select CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) for impact modeling. With CMIP6’s large model archive, selecting models that preserve the full uncertainty range in temperature, precipitation, and more is crucial.
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Assessing the complex influences of water management on hydrological drought characteristics in Texas Lili Yao, Stephen B Ferencz, Ning Sun & Hongxiang Yan Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract The sta…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in Environ. Res. Lett. from Lili Yao, Stephen B Ferencz, Ning Sun and Hongxiang Yan
multisectordynamics.org/2024/10/23/a...

Water management (WM) in Texas plays a key role in shaping hydrological drought dynamics. A new study shows WM reduces drought frequency but increases duration and severity in many areas. Impacts vary by season, with attenuation in summer and intensification in winter/spring.

Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Ryan A McManamay, Alen Raad, Chris R Vernon, Travis Thurber, Jing Gao, Stephen Powers & Brian O’Neill Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling P…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in Environ. Res. Lett. from Ryan A McManamay, Alen Raad, Chris R Vernon, Travis Thurber, Jing Gao, Stephen Powers and Brian O'Neill
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New study reveals how varying population projections can dramatically affect future urban land expansion in the US, even under the same global constraints (SSPs). Results show localized demographic info leads to more extensive urban sprawl, posing pressures on rural areas.

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change Antonia Hadjimichael, Patrick M. Reed, Julianne D. Quinn, Chris R. Vernon, & Travis Thurber Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowled…

More details, see the Earth's Future #OpenAccesspublication by Iman Hosseini-Shakib, Antonia Hadjimichael, Patrick M. Reed, Julianne D. Quinn, Chris R. Vernon, Travis Thurber.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/10/10/s...

Introducing the FRNSIC framework ("forensic")! 🌍🔍 This new scenario discovery tool dives deep into diverse outcomes, helping identify key dynamics and stakeholder impacts across systems. Applied to the Upper Colorado River Basin, it explores drought storylines and aids future adaptation planning

Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets Dylan Hogan and Wolfram Schlenker  Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: yes DOI: Abstract Global agricultural commodity …

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in Nature Communication by Dylan Hogan & Wolfram Schlenker.
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Global ag markets rely on aggregate supply, not individual countries. New weather datasets (GMFD, ERA5-Land) help estimate weather-induced shocks on production and prices. For US corn and soybeans, capturing daily temperature extremes proves crucial.

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas Henry Ssembatya, Jordan D. Kern, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Nathalie Voisin, Casey D. Burleyson, and Kerem Ziya Akdemir Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Model…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in Earth’s Future from Henry Ssembatya, Jordan D. Kern, Konstantinos Oikonomou, Nathalie Voisin, Casey D. Burleyson, and Kerem Ziya Akdemir
multisectordynamics.org/2024/07/03/d...

As Texas decarbonizes, widespread adoption of electric heat pumps for heating could spike winter electricity demand. Combined with rising summer cooling needs due to climate change, this raises uncertainty in peak demand patterns and grid reliability.

Watersheds and Infrastructure Providing Food, Energy, and Water to US Cities Yufei Zoe Ao, Md Abu Bakar Siddik, Megan Konar, Landon T. Marston. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support: no DOI: Abstract…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in @EarthsFutureEiC from Yufei Zoe Ao, Md Abu Bakar Siddik, Megan Konar, Landon T. Marston

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US cities rely on civil infrastructure to access food, energy, and water (FEW) from distant watersheds. In 2017, virtual water transfers via crops and electricity to major cities were 53B & 8B m³, respectively, surpassing physical water transfers. Highways are key for FEW imports.

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged Support…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences from Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
multisectordynamics.org/2024/06/12/m...

The 2008-2015 Colorado Basin drought in Texas highlights multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses. Despite severe conditions, advanced economy and water infrastructure mitigated economic and societal impacts. Understanding these dynamics aids future planning.

Evaluating Adaptation Pathways in a Complex Multi-Risk System Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Veerle Bril, Lars van der Weide, and Marleen de Ruiter. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Mo…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in @EarthsFutureEiC from Julius Schlumberger, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Veerle Bril, Lars van der Weide, Marleen de Ruiter
multisectordynamics.org/2024/06/04/e...

New research develops a synthetic multi-risk test case to assess decision-making under deep uncertainty, using the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk framework. This approach reveals non-linear effects of multi-risk interactions, crucial for developing effective adaptive strategies.

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in @EarthsFutureEiC from Mariana Madruga de Brito, Jan Sodoge, Alexander Fekete, Michael Hagenlocher, Elco Koks, Christian Kuhlicke, Gabriele Messori, Marleen de Ruiter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Philip J. Ward
multisectordynamics.org/2024/05/23/u...

Hydrological extremes like droughts and floods cause complex, cascading impacts across systems. Current decision-making often overlooks these interdependencies. The paper led by Mariana de Brito calls for methodological pluralism to better understand and adapt to these risks.

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience Brian C. O’Neill, Jennifer Morris, Jonathan Lamontagne, John Weyant, and Marshall Wise Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental Systems Modeling Program Acknowledged…

For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in @EarthsFutureEiC from Brian C. O’Neill, Jennifer Morris, Jonathan Lamontagne, John Weyant, and Marshall Wise at #PNNLab, #MIT, #TuftsEngineer, and #Stanford
multisectordynamics.org/2024/05/16/a...

New research from Brian O'Neill and authors highlights the need for shared community scenarios focused on outcomes for human well-being and resilience, rather than just drivers of change. This approach can enhance the comparability of studies and improve risk assessments across sectors.

What drives uncertainty surrounding riverine flood risks? Iman Hosseini-Shakib, Atieh Alipour, Benjamin Seiyon Lee, Vivek Srikrishnan, Robert E. Nicholas, Klaus Keller, and Sanjib Sharma. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Earth & Environmental …

More details, see the Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier)  #OpenAccesspublication by Iman Hosseini-Shakib, Atieh Alipour, Benjamin Seiyon Lee, Vivek Srikrishnan, Robert E. Nicholas, Klaus Keller, Sanjib Sharma.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/05/08/w...

The relevant paper of this week unveils a flood risk model, merging hazard, exposure, and vulnerability considerations, crucial for robust flood projections. Through a practical case study, it sheds light on key uncertainties and offers a methodology for flood risk assessment

Persistent shortcomings are identified, emphasizing the need for further advancements in model physics to enhance seasonal predictions and climate change detection.
For more details, see the 2024 #OpenAccess paper in #AMSJCLi from John T. Fasullo et al. at

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles John T. Fasullo, Julie M. Caron, Adam Phillips, Hui Li, Jadwiga H. Richter, Richard B. Neale, Nan Rosenbloom, Gary Strand, Sasha Glanville, Yuanpu Li, Flavio Lehner, Gerald Meehl, Jean-Christophe G…

Evaluating E3SM and CESM models' performance in simulating climate variability, the paper underscores improvements in global and extratropical modes across successive model versions.
multisectordynamics.org/2024/04/24/m...

More details in the 2023 #OpenAccess publication in Earths Future by Franklyn Kanyako, Jonathan Lamontagne, Abigail Snyder, Jennifer Morris, Gokul Iyer, Flannery Dolan, Yang Ou, and Kenneth Cox at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering #TuftsUniversity, #MITGlobalChange, and #PNNLab.

Results vary regionally, with staple food prices and water withdrawal showing significant variability.