Geoff Wodtke

Announcing the 2025-2026 Inequality Workshop schedule!
Join us throughout the academic year for dialogue and critical commentary on some of today’s most pressing issues.

Want early access? Sign up for our newsletter → bit.ly/4pxC2fC

#InequalityResearch #AcademicWorkshops #UChicago

Measuring intergenerational educational and occupational mobility in China and Russia during the transition to market economies, using new Markov chain methods, from Kristina Butaeva, Lian Chen, Steven N. Durlauf, and Albert Park https://www.nber.org/papers/w34124

Where are Chicago’s lead pipes? Lead water service lines are all over the city. But majority Black and Latino neighborhoods bear the biggest burden, our analysis finds.

tinyurl.com/ymyz7v2v

Differences in school quality are often blamed for academic achievement gaps between poor and affluent neighborhoods. A new paper uses ML to find that equalizing quality would reduce this gap by <10%, suggesting disparities stem mainly from structural factors.
Explore the findings → bit.ly/3VdIbQ1

Adam Smith is an economics legend, but what gets left out of modern conversations about this iconic thinker? Philosopher Eric Schliesser (@nescio13.bsky.social) unpacks Smith’s overlooked views on inequality and concentrated political power. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. bit.ly/3YdiCkj

Another new working paper w/ Kailey White and Xiang Zhou on differences in school quality across nhoods and their link to achievement gaps.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Check it out today at #ASA2025 session on "Place and Inequality"

New working paper w/ Jesse Zhou introducing flexible approach to mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

arxiv.org/abs/2506.140...

See Jesse present it this afternoon at #ASA2025.

How important are low tax rates when your life and career are rooted in one place? Cristobal Young challenges the idea that the wealthy are fleeing to tax havens in this week’s episode of The Inequality Podcast.
🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/3YdiCkj

#TaxFlight #MillionaireTax #InequalityResearch

Uneven Ground: Inequality and Planetary Health Can we afford the consumption patterns of the super-rich? Or does human and planetary wellbeing require us to drastically reduce inequality?

The richest 1% emit 100x the greenhouse gas emissions of those in the world’s bottom 50%, notes @profkepickett.bsky.social. “Inequalities of income, wealth and political power sit at the heart of the environmental crisis” @equalitytrust.bsky.social #LSEInequalitiesBlog

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Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

New paper w/ Betsy Priem and Kerry Ard on racial disparities in early childhood exposure to neurotoxic air pollution:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

In our latest book talk, we dive into the tensions between Universal Basic Income, technological innovation, AI, and ideology, framed through the lens of Karl Marx’s enduring relevance.

Watch now: bit.ly/3ZZAsI5

A book talk to bookend the school year!

Join us for a discussion on Marx, featuring UChicago Law Professors @brianleiter.bsky.social and Jaime Edwards, as they present a penetrating synthesis of Marx’s ideas and their relevance to contemporary work in the social sciences.

RSVP: bit.ly/4jieMyH

Today, host @gtwodtke.bsky.social and Professor @aldasky.bsky.social explore issues at the intersection of climate change, the housing crisis, and social inequality.

Listen every other Monday:
Website: bit.ly/3YdiCkj
Spotify: bit.ly/3qO0KhP
Apple: bit.ly/3phD0SP

#AffordableHousing #ClimateChange

Nonparametric causal decomposition of group disparities We introduce a new nonparametric causal decomposition approach that identifies the mechanisms by which a treatment variable contributes to a group-based outcome disparity. Our approach distinguishes three mechanisms: group differences in: (1) treatment prevalence, (2) average treatment effects, and (3) selection into treatment based on individual-level treatment effects. Our approach reformulates classic Kitagawa–Blinder–Oaxaca decompositions in causal and nonparametric terms, complements causal mediation analysis by explaining group disparities instead of group effects, and isolates conceptually distinct mechanisms conflated in recent random equalization decompositions. In contrast to all prior approaches, our framework uniquely identifies differential selection into treatment as a novel disparity-generating mechanism. Our approach can be used for both the retrospective causal explanation of disparities and the prospective planning of interventions to change disparities. We present both an unconditional and a conditional decomposition, where the latter quantifies the contributions of the treatment within levels of certain covariates. We develop nonparametric estimators that are n-consistent, asymptotically normal, semiparametrically efficient, and multiply robust. We apply our approach to analyze the mechanisms by which college graduation causally contributes to intergenerational income persistence (the disparity in adult income between the children of high- vs. low-income parents). Empirically, we demonstrate a previously undiscovered role played by the new selection component in intergenerational income persistence.

My paper on causal decomposition of group disparities is out in the Annals of Applied Statistics! If you are looking to explain group differences, this is likely the methodological framework for you! doi.org/10.1214/24-A...

Hello world! We at the AJS are pleased to have our bluesky account all systems go!  We’ll be announcing our issues, accepted papers, and other relevant happenings. Watch this space for more.

We’re Hiring!

The Assistant Director serves as the operational lead at the Stone Center, collaborating with leadership to advance research on inequality. This position oversees a wide range of research activities and administrative functions.

Job Requisition ID: JR29405
Apply: bit.ly/41Cj5x1

Last Call!

Join us for a panel on standardized testing, college admissions, and social mobility. Experts will explore the role of standardized tests in education, meritocracy in admissions, and how to address social and educational injustices.

🔗Register here: bit.ly/3QGbAQN

#CollegeAdmissions #Meritocracy

Anyone have guidance on IES restricted data contracts now that NCES is gone? Is disclosure review just not happening anymore? Is this a license agreement violation? Devastating blow for education research, and for early career folks whose research relies on these data

#edusky #socsky

Deep Learning With DAGs - Sourabh Balgi, Adel Daoud, Jose M. Peña, Geoffrey T. Wodtke, Jesse Zhou, 2025 Social science theories often postulate systems of causal relationships among variables, which are commonly represented using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). As...

New paper on nonparametric structural equation modeling with a special class of deep neural networks:

journals.sagepub.com/eprint/IPQ7T...

Another two-parter!

First, @gtwodtke.bsky.social and @jakerosenfeld.bsky.social examine how factors like union decline contribute to precarious work, then Daniel Schneider follows with a discussion of the impacts of unpredictable labor.

Listen every other Monday: bit.ly/3YdiCkj

The upcoming Inequality Workshop features Harvard Sociology Professor @ellismonk.bsky.social.

His talk introduces the infracategorical model of inequality, which examines disparities through finer-grained distinctions.

🔗Register here: bit.ly/4gZaslT

#Inequality #Stratification

Sixty years after equal pay laws and the women’s movement transformed opportunities for women, gender inequality persists in new forms.

Today’s episode features @UCLA Professors @marthajbailey.bsky.social and Natasha Quadlin.

Listen every other Monday:
Website: bit.ly/3YdiCkj

Calling early career faculty and advanced Ph.D. students! Submit your papers for consideration to be included in our conference. We want to invite scholars whose papers address inequality and mobility in cross-cultural contexts.

🔗 Submit here: bit.ly/3EDvDwi
📅 Deadline: Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Apply to attend our summer school in Brasília, Brazil!

We invite early-career scholars with research priorities in inequality and mobility in cross-cultural contexts.

🔗 Apply: bit.ly/40RtwfS

Sponsored by the Stone Center, @lseinequalities.bsky.social, and Institute for Applied Economic Research.

The Inequality Workshop continues with Brandon Enriquez on the racial disparities of trade shocks.

🔗Register here: bit.ly/4jZBNqX
📅Date: Friday, Feb. 21, 2025
🕕 Time: 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM
📍 Location: SSRB, Tea Room,

#TradeShocks #RacialDisparities

If meritocracy determines success, how does elite reproduction persist? @larivera.bsky.social examines how hiring at top firms often reinforces privilege rather than rewarding merit. Join her conversation with @durlauf.bsky.social on meritocracy.

Listen every other Monday:
Website: bit.ly/3YdiCkj

Inequality Workshop Update!

Note that the upcoming Inequality Workshop will now feature Stone Center Director @durlauf.bsky.social. He will explore how different concepts of merit shape policies, and the trade-offs between equality and efficiency.

🔗 Register here: bit.ly/4jwvJ94

Should billionaires be outlawed? Join philosopher @ingridrobeyns.bsky.social and economist @durlauf.bsky.social for a thought-provoking conversation on the merits of limitarianism moderated by political scientist David @laywilliams.bsky.social.

Register: bit.ly/3PJkjkx

Trump Guts EPA’s Environmental Justice Office The Trump administration is planning to shutter the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights at the Environmental Protection Agency and has placed nearly 170 employees on administrative...

Trump Guts EPA's Environmental Justice Office, Putting Poorest Communities of Color at More Risk