nick

NHL teams ranked by score/venue/flurry adjusted 5v5 xGF% so far this season.

Interesting! Is there less variation between the simulated seasons? For my model the highest average points predicted is 103, but the first place team is projected around 112. Does yours have less of a relative difference between the 1st place teams rank points and Carolinas predicted average?

These are more aggressive predictions than what I'm used to from you. Are these point projections the average for each specific team from the 1 million simulations? Or did you take the average rank each team finished at and assign the average points that that rank had?

Metropolitan Division projected standings from the datadrivenhockey model 📊 #NHL

The Florida Panthers won back-to-back championships without a single point-per-game player across the two playoff runs.

They had 6 players with at least 1 penalty minute per game played though. The only non-Panthers in the top 8 PIM are Evander Kane and Logan Stanley.

Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett made NHL history this year as the first player to win the Conn Smythe as the Stanley Cup Playoff’s MVP and lead the playoffs in penalty minutes in the same season.

I think this is the best way to assess which division is truly the strongest, because it removes the positive/negative effects of playing bad/good teams in your own division. The Pacific was preeettty bad and the metro is the definition of mid (only the flyers were below .500 against non-division)

NHL divisions ranked by how they performed AGAINST each other last season!

Mitch Marner helped create a lot of goals over his 9 seasons as a Leaf 📊

In addition to this list he had 97 assists on 41 other players goals.

Coping. #runitback

Pre-season cup chances from my model

This was originally an Instagram post, thus why it's 8 pictures...

Are NHL teams that get hit down the stretch more likely to go deep in the playoffs? I took a look at the numbers 👇

NHL wildcard race probabilities :)

Ovechkin has a 46.1% chance of breaking the NHL's all-time goal-scoring record this season. Do you think he will do it?

Auston Matthews tajan?

I’m hoping this is a case of the dailybeast twisting Guerins words… cause if not… big ooof. (you know it’s gotten bad when you are actively rooting for the news to be fake)

4 Nations Faceoff Clinching Scenarios 👇

🇨🇦 win in regulation: 🇨🇦 v 🇺🇸 Final

🇨🇦 win in OT/SO:
- 🇸🇪 win in regulation: 🇸🇪 v 🇺🇸 Final
- 🇸🇪 OTW, OTL or L: 🇨🇦 v 🇺🇸 Final

🇫🇮 win in regulation: 🇫🇮 v 🇺🇸 Final

🇫🇮 win in OT/SO:
- 🇸🇪 win in regulation: 🇸🇪 v 🇺🇸 Final
- 🇸🇪 OTW, OTL or L: 🇫🇮 v 🇺🇸 Final

Updated 4 Nations Faceoff win probabilities #NHL

4 Nations Faceoff Probabilities!

My model thinks this is a lot closer than most other projections I've seen.

NHL Eastern Conference standings projections and playoff probs 📊

5 "locks", 2 almost sure things and 4 shrugs

Even so, their penalty kill is 6th worst in the league since the coaching change, so it's not like it's gotten much better, they are just getting less penalties. I don't know if that kind of penalty differential is sustainable. I'm not saying that pointedly, I seriously do not know 🤷🏼‍♂️

They are getting 1 more power play per game than their opponents since the coaching change and their special teams goal differential per game has improved from -0.21 to 0.55 👀

(more 👇)

On the Detroit Red Wings recent success:

They have the best points percentage in the NHL since Christmas, but are still bottom of the barrel in 5v5 xG% in that stretch and winning games off a pretty ridiculous penalty differential

(more 👇)

Will Crosby be traded? (Probably not)

Enter the February Prediction contest www.data-driven-hockey.com

This game is a good example of quality over quantity. Blue Jackets have about 47% of the xG share but have taken almost 20 fewer shot attempts than the leafs.

(Figure from @moneypuck.bsky.social )

lmao

The DataDrivenHockey Show - Episode 1 The DataDrivenHockey Show · Episode

Check out episode 1 of the DataDrivenHockey show 👇

open.spotify.com/episode/3pdz...