Salam Alsaadi

Happy to see this out in the world!

In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.

Seems like "mowing the lawn" is their long-term strategy and they clearly believe it’s sustainable--at least under the current world order

Thank you!!

I deeply appreciate the invaluable feedback from so many mentors and colleagues. I’m also very thankful to the
@apsrjournal.bsky.social reviewers and editors whose feedback greatly improved this paper.

Contributions:
1) First systematic theory of minority regimes.

2) Challenges assumptions in ethnic stacking lit—shows when identity drives loyalty, and when it doesn't.

3) Bridges conflict & authoritarianism research by explaining when ethnic regimes are stable vs. vulnerable.

This is a mixed-methods paper using:

– Original dataset on minority autocracies (1900–2015).

– Case study of Bahrain, drawing on interview data collected during my fieldwork in Bahrain, Lebanon, and London (UK).

This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

I find that minority regimes excluding a single majority group (e.g, Syria, Bahrain, Apartheid S. Africa) are exceptionally durable. (3 times less likely to breakdown).

Why?
Fear of majoritarian rule creates a high threat perception among ruling minorities and a largely "unconditional loyalty".

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

In ethnically divided societies, autocrats rely on ethnic identity to stay in power—but coethnics don’t always fall in line. I explain variation in loyalty and regime durability by showing how relative group size and ethnic configuration shape threat perceptions and loyalty among ruling minorities.

Very happy to see my paper, "Unconditional Loyalty: The Survival of Minority Autocracies", finally out in the American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social

Quick thread below🧵

I deeply appreciate the invaluable feedback from so many mentors and colleagues. I’m also very thankful to the
@apsrjournal.bsky.social reviewers and editors whose feedback greatly improved this paper.

Contributions:

1) First systematic theory of minority regimes.

2) Challenges assumptions in ethnic stacking lit—shows when identity drives loyalty, and when it doesn't.

3) Bridges conflict & authoritarianism research by explaining when ethnic regimes are stable vs. vulnerable.

This is a mixed-methods paper using:

– Original dataset on minority autocracies (1900–2015).

– Case study of Bahrain, drawing on interview data collected during my fieldwork in Bahrain, Lebanon, and London (UK).

This fear generates 3 key dynamics:

1⃣ The demobilization of the minority group, which engages in policing and sanctioning dissenting coethnics.

2⃣ Countermobilization of coethnics– loyal civilians and militias participate in repression.

3⃣ Elite cohesion/ no defections.

I find that minority regimes excluding a single majority group (e.g, Syria, Bahrain, Apartheid S. Africa) are exceptionally durable. (3 times less likely to breakdown).

Why?
Fear of majoritarian rule creates a high threat perception among ruling minorities and a largely "unconditional loyalty".

I distinguish between two types of minority autocracies:

1⃣ Those that exclude a majority ethnic group.

2⃣ Those that exclude other minorities in highly fractionalized societies where no group is a majority.

In ethnically divided societies, autocrats rely on ethnic identity to stay in power—but coethnics don’t always fall in line. I explain variation in loyalty and regime durability by showing how relative group size and ethnic configuration shape threat perceptions and loyalty among ruling minorities.

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

A few further thoughts on Trump's Syria announcement. First, beyond the obvious benefit for Syrians, it might have a broader impact: it demonstrates, for the first time I can remember, that American sanctions aren't a one-way ratchet. They can be lifted if conditions change. 🧵

Clashes in Tripoli after weeks of build-up between rival forces. The trigger was the killing of Abdelghani "Ghnewa" al-Kikli, the city's most powerful militia leader, in circumstances that are as yet unclear - apparently during a meeting.

Quebec riding of Terrebonne flips to Liberals after recount shows candidate won by single vote | CBC News After a judicial recount, sources tell CBC News the Quebec riding of Terrebonne has flipped to the Liberals, who have beaten the Bloc Québécois by one vote. The result means the Liberals have 170 seat...

In case you ever feel like your vote doesn't matter, know there is one person in suburban Montréal who did, literally, cast the deciding vote.

Thank you so much, William!

Really sorry to hear this. I know that your work and your contributions to the community have meant so much to so many!

Personal news- I’ll be joining the University of Georgia’s Department of International Affairs as an Assistant Professor in 2026, after a postdoc at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center this year. I’m really excited for these next steps and deeply thankful to everyone who’s supported me along the way.

New in @foreignaffairs.com: We explore why justice for Assad’s victims is essential for Syria’s stability, and why getting it right is no easy task.

Excited to share my new article in the American Journal of Political Science (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! "Endogenous Opposition: Identity and Ideology in Kuwaiti Electoral Politics" explores how authoritarian elections generate opposition to incumbent autocrats. Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ukrer...

Very excited that our article about the redistribution of political power within precolonial institutions under indirect colonial rule is available on First View @apsrjournal.bsky.social

@msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I joined brilliant colleagues on two podcasts about home & belonging in the Syrian context. The Fire These Times (w/ @leilashami.bsky.social & @ayoub.bsky.social) was recorded before Assad's fall. The @newlinesmag.bsky.social (w/ Ammar Azzouz & @lsmwilson.bsky.social) was recorded after. Links below

Opinion | What Did the World Learn From Syria? (Gift Article) It is easy to look at a dark past and warn of a dark future.

An important piece by Alia Malek

“It is easy to look at a dark past and warn of a dark future, but we should not mistake that for seeing the future. What did we learn from Syria? That we misread it, and condemn it to misery, when we do not listen to the people at the heart of it.”

menasky