Sean Pinkney's Avatar

Sean Pinkney

@spinkney.bsky.social

I mostly post about probabilistic programming stuff, statistics, and R/Julia/Python (in that order). I'm a volunteer Stan developer and citizen scientist (papers on arxiv). Currently my day job is doing marketing analytics.

945 Followers  |  590 Following  |  93 Posts  |  Joined: 26.09.2023  |  1.6601

Latest posts by spinkney.bsky.social on Bluesky

After reading the copy-editors promptly re-calibrated their workflow

26.01.2026 12:39 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A hawk's quick shadow?
Body taken, head left hereβ€”
life owes no warning.

24.01.2026 17:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Peter Peter - It's You | Heated Rivalry (Original Series Soundtrack)
YouTube video by Milan Records USA Peter Peter - It's You | Heated Rivalry (Original Series Soundtrack)

"Is ok?" youtu.be/DoQyMsBHE-M?...

24.01.2026 13:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I do believe X is a threat

24.01.2026 11:42 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I checked for n>=3. For n = 3, the max is 4 which must be true.

06.11.2025 01:11 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Ah yep, just working under duress (kids)

06.11.2025 01:05 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I didn't prove max but I'm not sure it can be bigger. Let me know what's right!

06.11.2025 00:36 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

2 cases bc of median. Max element is then

Even: n + n / 2
Odd: 2 n - (n + 1) / 2

Assuming positive integers for all n. The formula isn't too hard to work out afterward for the entire sequence

06.11.2025 00:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Wonderful apotropaic marks!

30.10.2025 14:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 30.10.2025 00:51 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Halloween @mc-stan.org

29.10.2025 21:22 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Parallel processing in R

Try this computing.stat.berkeley.edu/tutorial-par...

20.10.2025 20:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a bunch of error boxes are stacked on top of each other with a google logo in the corner ALT: a bunch of error boxes are stacked on top of each other with a google logo in the corner
20.10.2025 18:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'll take one if you have any left

23.06.2025 12:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Which base measure are we in?

04.06.2025 14:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So go re-run your models with simplex and report back with your results!

04.06.2025 12:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

and to be comparable, if not a bit better, in all other cases.

What has changed is that we use the sum-to-zero vector transform and then softmax it. There are still n-1 free variables but the over/underflow for finite precision computing is less likely. 2/

04.06.2025 12:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Stan 2.37 will be out sometime next week. I helped get the updated simplex parameterization and sum-to-zero matrix (both rows and columns sum to zero).

We found the new simplex parameterization to be much better in the extremes of the simplex and across very small alpha values of the dirichlet 1/

04.06.2025 12:45 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Ask me any questions you may have about this! #stats

02.06.2025 13:23 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Q

01.06.2025 19:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is the pre-pre-print of the meta-meta-analysis

24.05.2025 18:41 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I've come on here after months away to let everyone know that I apparently really like trance music

07.05.2025 13:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Oh I first read this as the water cycle is changing as a good thing rather than a permanent thing

29.03.2025 22:00 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Hi!

27.03.2025 21:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Are there any other statistics nerds in the NoVA area that want to get together?

27.03.2025 11:05 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

😈

28.02.2025 21:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Updated cholesky corr parameterization testing Promising results from the Pymc folks Confirmation that the det Jacobian is correct and early tests show improved sampling!

Promising results from the Pymc folks! #bayesian #pymc #stats #stan

discourse.mc-stan.org/t/updated-ch...

28.02.2025 19:39 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Hi I don't know you, you don't know me but I have the same feels. Come say hi sometime to me

23.02.2025 01:30 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Please let me know! I'd love to see timing and ESS comparisons

20.02.2025 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It's similar to what Adam Haber came up with for tfp but it seems to be slightly better in small dimensions and much faster in large (100+) though this could be because of Stan's implementation vs tfp.

20.02.2025 13:50 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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