Dr. Matt Herbert

Gunman in Libya shoots at British diplomatic staff as danger builds The incident was reported to U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office.

www.politico.eu/article/liby...

Sudan civil war overwhelms border town in neighbor Chad as refugees find little help Sudan's civil war has overwhelmed a border town in neighboring Chad. Nearly a quarter-million refugees have arrived in Adre and the humanitarian frontline on the edge of one of the world’s most devast...

Since April 2023, nearly a million refugees have crossed into Chad, fleeing deadly violence in Sudan.

One town — Adré — has become a fragile frontline for an estimated quarter of a million refugees.

My report on the situation in Eastern Chad for
@apnews.com ⬇️

apnews.com/article/suda...

Compound crime: Cyber scam operations in Southeast Asia Cyber scam operations have surged across Southeast Asia since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, evolving into a transnational organized crime crisis of staggering proportions. In this report, we exp...

How do cyber-scam centres actually operate — and why are they proving so difficult to address?

This new report from #GITOC offers one of the clearest pictures to date, detailing how these operations are structured, sustained, and expanding across the region🧵

📘: globalinitiative.net/analysis/com...

How potential US migrant expulsions to Libya could feed into the country's criminal economy and instability On 7 May 2025, reports emerged that the US was preparing to deport irregular migrants to Libya. While no deportations had occurred as of mid-May, and the US government has neither confirmed nor denied...

Reports that the #US is seeking to send migrants to #Libya have raised big concerns on the risks of #HR violations and abuse.

In my new #GITOC brief, I detail those, & how #deportations could fuel Libya’s criminal economies and worsen political instability.

globalinitiative.net/analysis/how...

Overnight, a Zawiyan coalition incl Mohamed Bahroun al-Far, Mohamed Sifaw, Othman Lhab, Busriba units, & Mahmoud Ben Rjab advanced toward Siyahiya, & may clash w/ Zintani forces.

Driven by fears of marginalization, the move aims to ease pressure on SDF & divide GNU's forces.

Later today, the 111 Brigade, Joint Force, & 444 Brigade are expected to regroup & launch a coordinated push to confine the SDF to its stronghold in Sug al-Jumaa.

A decision to militarily overtake Sug al-Jumaa - densely populated & symbolically significant - would be perilous.

Early this morning, the Special Deterrence Force (SDF) and Judicial Security launched a successful counteroffensive against disorganized GNU-aligned forces in southern Tripoli, deploying retrofitted commercial drones & drone-assisted targeting to hit key 444 Brigade positions

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare.

The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

Haiti: How US terrorist designations could deepen criminal rule and humanitarian tragedy In the first quarter of 2025, at least 1 617 people were killed in Haiti. As the gangs have tightened their grip over the country, the need for aid is intensifying – more than a million people have be...

In a new article, my colleague @romainlecour.bsky.social and I assess how the recent US designations of #Haitian #gangs as foreign terrorist organizations could impact the humanitarian and criminal situation in the country. globalinitiative.net/analysis/hai...

#Haiti #Sanctions #FTO

Frozen Billions: Reforming Sanctions on the Libyan Investment Authority | Crisis Group Libya’s sovereign wealth fund has been under UN sanctions since the revolt against Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011. These measures restrict investment that would enlarge the fund. The UN has eased them, bu...

🚨NEW @crisisgroup.org REPORT

Libya's $70 billion sovereign wealth fund has been under UN #sanctions since the revolt against Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011. The sanctions remain in place more a decade after his death.🧵

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

A bit bizarre. Starlink has been in heavy use by smugglers in northern Niger for a while now.

Sudan, Chad and Libya knit together as illicit markets enable conflict economy | ENACT Africa Sudan’s internal conflict has fuelled a new conflict economy in its northwest, amplifying regional illicit economies.

My latest bit of analysis is out, focusing on how the conflict in Sudan is shaping the #smuggling of food, fuel, weapons and people in #Libya, #Chad and #Sudan.

enactafrica.org/enact-observ...

Through the telescope: What to watch for in 2025 What will 2025 bring for organized crime? From geopolitical instability and weapon flows in conflict zones to the rise of AI scams, synthetic opioids, and environmental crimes, transnational criminal ...

Some of our thinking at the Global Initiative on dynamics to watch on organized crime, and efforts being made to counter it: globalinitiative.net/analysis/the...

For those who couldn't attend @alicefereday.bsky.social and my event on how the conflict in #Sudan has impacted human smuggling in Sudan, #Chad and the region, a recording can be found here: www.youtube.com/live/Tqctuxl...