Mike Copage

It was great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through #COP31 this morning.

Take a listen here, and visit coterran.co for some more thoughts on why COP31 is about meeting the Pacific's greatest #security threat: #climatechange coterran.co/cop31-is-an-...

YouTube video by CoTerran COP31 is an Investment in Security for Australia & the Pacific - ABC Radio National 10-11-2025

@copage.bsky.social Great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast this morning to talk through Australia's bid to co-host #COP31 with the Pacific, and why the benefits for Australia's partnership with the Pacific outweigh the costs of hosting: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQna...

I'm excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a new #climate and #security advisory.

coterran.co/newsletter/launch

Stay tuned for updates on analysis, products, and services by subscribing through coterran.co as I build it out.

CoTerran's approach to climate and security Launching CoTerran, a new advisory focused on risks at the nexus of climate and security.

Excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a #climate and #security advisory

coterran.co/newsletter/l...

I'm incredibly grateful to my workshop partners and their staff in making this come together - as well as the panelists, facilitators, and participants for their insights and contributions, and the Embassy of Ireland to Australia, and the Ambassador, for their support and his motivating remarks.

A more detailed summary of the workshop, and discussions it sparked, will be made available in the coming weeks.

I am both hopeful and have renewed energy to work among our partners to advance these conversations in the years to come - and should #COP31 be hosted by Australia and Pacific partners, I look forward to working together to shine a light on the solutions we need and must implement rapidly.

This is not just possible, but necessary, to match the borderless nature of compounding and cascading risks we are all facing.

My takeaway was that by advancing awareness and sharing the expertise each community, country, and region has developed on its own to these challenges, our response to the risks posed by climate change can be more than the sum of our parts.

Our workshop helped bridge understanding between both shared and distinct sources of risk and resilience across these regions. Rather than leave empty-handed, we developed roadmaps for action in our region that can build on the substantial momentum and practical solutions being advanced globally.

Perhaps nowhere are these preventative and resilience-building solutions more complex, diverse, and needed than across the breadth of Asia and the Pacific.

It's easy to get stuck admiring the substantial risks #climate disruption poses to global peace and security, to paraphrase remarks shared earlier this month by the Ambassador of Ireland to Australia Tim Mawe. As he so rightly noted, we have to get on with solutions.

It was a privilege to host a workshop earlier this month in Canberra, on behalf of the @aspi-org.bsky.social, in partnership with adelphi and the Toda Peace Institute, on the theme of "Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region."

#climatesecurity

Every president since Lyndon Johnson has recognized the security risks of climate change. Then came Trump. Turning a blind eye will only make the United States weaker.

Every President Since Lyndon Johnson Has Recognized the Security Risks of Climate Change. Then Came Trump.

My article on this.
www.motherjones.com/politics/202...

Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific - ASPI By Michael Copage, Dr Robert Glasser, Isabelle BondThe Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the […]

That includes making sure future assessments and plans grapple with complex, cross-border risks - much as we identified in our recent report exploring a stress-testing climate scenario for Indonesia in 2035: www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...

None of this needs to reinvent the wheel - I am looking forward to digging into the National Climate Risk Assessment once it is fully released! - but the bar needs to keep rising in future.

Crucially, no government should think a single assessment of adaptation plan is sufficient. Our awareness of risks grows as the science develops, and the intensity of impacts rises with every failure to reduce global emissions.

A regular statement on climate risks and plans, in every Government's mandate, ensures public awareness and governance remains fresh and relevant. While Governments have to grapple with many concurrent strategic challenges, climate disruption is sadly a reality for ours and many generations to come.

My recommendations build on many have already called for. The next Government should:
· Legislate regular climate risk assessments and adaptation plans, with a biennial statement to Parliament;
· Centralize climate risk governance in PM&C;
· Release public versions of existing assessments asap.

Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world - ASPI By Raelene Lockhorst, Chris Taylor, Marc Ablong PSM, Bethany Allen, Justin Bassi, Dr Alex Bristow, Henry Campbell, Danielle Cave, Michael Copage, James Corera, Dr John Coyne, Dr Malcolm Davis, Dr Fitriani, Andrew Henderson, Jocelinn Kang, Nerida King, Dr Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, Ian SatchwellFor more than a decade, which has included the 2013, 2016, 2019 […]

@aspi-org.bsky.social's 2025 edition of 'Agenda for Change', a major report on strategic challenges the next Australian Government must grapple with, is now out.

In it, I argue that strengthening climate risk governance should be a national security priority.

www.aspi.org.au/report/agend...

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨

In ‘Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world’, ASPI experts analyse the strategic challenges facing Australia and provide recommendations to assist the next Australian Government.

🔖 Read it now ➡️ bit.ly/4izTkUA

There's lots of road to travel, very quickly, before COP31 if it goes ahead here - and progress to make on this approach so that it's a success. This wasn't a great start, and it's important to call that out so that similar decisions are avoided down the track.

Some thoughts here from myself and Blake Johnson on how any Australian Government should approach COP31 post-election - both that it is in Australia's strategic interests, and that those interests are primarily in strengthening relationships with the Pacific.

A successful COP31 needs Pacific countries at the table | The Strategist Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation wi...

This week PM Albanese announced Adelaide as the preferred city to host COP31 (if the bid survives the election).

No knock to Adelaide, but if COP31 is meant to be co-hosted with the Pacific, then decisions on the host city should be done with Pacific input: www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-successful...

...and part 2!

Great to join Thomas Oriti on ABC News Radio yesterday to talk about our report on climate risks to Indonesia's security. Take a listen (Part 1 here, Part 2 below!), read through a quick summary here (www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-risk...), or the full report (www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...)

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

'Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific' reveals Indonesia’s economic and national security interests will be strained by climate risks in coming years, with consequences stretching across the Indo-Pacific.

🔖 Read the report 👉 bit.ly/4i7eyc4

That reflex by countries to turn inwards in the face of climate pressure will be a mistake, leaving us all worse off.

We can avoid this by proactively identifying and collaborating on mutual pressures and interests across the region.

All of this has the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tension, and a move away from investing in crisis prevention and response. Climate will amplify those pressures, and may limit the sources of support and assistance as countries turn to challenges within their own borders.