ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System

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🪾Large parts of the #Amazon face savanna-like dry seasons if deforestations levels reach 25%.

In the next #ClimTip webinar #JuliaPongratz @lmumuenchen.bsky.social talks about the state and future of the rainforest from the latest findings.

👉 Join on 2 Dec 2025 at 2–3pm CET
bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Shell ready to invest more in Italy if drilling permits unlocked Shell is ready to invest more in Italy to boost hydrocarbon production, the head of the energy group's Italian unit said on Wednesday, urging the government to allow new drilling.

This is corporate manslaughter!

Every new well that Shell sinks kills more people.

Recent cutting-edge work by #climate scientists demonstrates how we can now attribute the deaths that will be caused from individual oil & gas projects...

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

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Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...

"Opening the conference, @iiasa.ac.at director general Prof Hans Joachim Schellnhuber shared his personal view that '1.5C is dead, 2C is in agony and 3C is looming'."

www.carbonbrief.org/overshoot-ex...

⚖️ Most scientists agree #Greenland melt will likely tip the Atlantic currents, but can the #WestAntarcticIceSheet melt stabilize it?

Sacha Sinet @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social shares his findings soon to appear in @science.org #AMOC

Join #ClimTipWebinar 4 Nov 2-3pm CET
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Climate Research at the Heart of EU Policy: Six Projects Unite to Inform Decision-Making Climate research provides the scientific foundation of the European Union’s climate policies, including the ambitious European Green Deal, which aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050. Scienti…

6 EU-funded climate & Earth system modelling projects—@esm2025.bsky.social, @optimesm-eu.bsky.social, @tipesm.bsky.social, @climtip.bsky.social, @rescueclimate.bsky.social & NextGEMS—came together for a clustered science-to-policy meeting to present insights.💬🌐 ukesm.ac.uk/climate-rese...

Has anyone else been dealing with some serious headline whiplash recently?

Even for those of us who follow #climate and #energy matters closely, it can be hard to know what the hell is going on!

So here's a thread to help climate communicators get a grip on how to deal with this 🧵

📈 It matters not just much our planet heats up, but how fast that happens.

Join today's #ClimTip webinar with Jan Swierczek-Jereczek from @ucm.es on this process called rate-induced tipping and the stability of Antarctic Ice Sheet.

7 October, 2025
2:00–3:00 pm CEST
👉 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

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Image of the Earth precariously balancing on a jenga tower with text that reads: "Out of Balance". Image credit: "Out of Balance" (Digital collage from Ai generated art with typography) by Kuat Abeshev.

⚠️ New study in @nature.com shows convincing observational evidence that the Greenland Ice Sheet, Atlantic Ocean currents (AMOC), Amazon rainforest & South American monsoons – are all losing resilience.

Read more tinyurl.com/26heycew

#ClimTip @tum.de @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

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Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.

10/ To refine these projections, we need better observations of the Southern Ocean and Indo-Pacific to check these stabilising processes.

🔀 If models are biased here, the picture could change.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

9/ Collapse this century looks unlikely, but weakening is almost certain and carries serious risks⚠️

“This is no excuse for complacency. A “big freeze” in Europe may not be imminent, but the urgency to act has never been greater. The AMOC’s future depends on our actions today," says the author

Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate The global and regional impacts of the AMOC slowdown on climate change in the 21st century are isolated and quantified.

8/ 🪾A weaker AMOC could shift rainfall belts, bringing drought to parts of the tropics.
❄️ Europe may face stormier winters and drier summers, ⬆️ the US east coast faster sea-level rise,
🌾 while ecosystems and food security worldwide could be disrupted.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models The magnitude of 21st century Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakening in CMIP6 models is highly correlated with an AMOC pathway into the Indo-Pacific Ocean The real-world “In...

7/ Together, these processes explain why models show slowdown rather than collapse.

⚠️ Climate projections suggest the AMOC will weaken by ~25–40% by 2100, depending on emissions.

And that weakening matters.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

6/ 2️⃣ Pacific circulation is too weak. In extreme cases, a Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC) forms – a reversed version of Pacific circulation today.

🌊 If strong enough, it could replace Atlantic sinking and trigger collapse.

But under realistic warming, it stays weak or absent.

5/ 1️⃣ 🌬️ Southern Ocean winds act like a pump, hauling deep water to the surface.

⚖️ That upwelling must be balanced by sinking elsewhere. Unless the Pacific fully takes over, some sinking will always remain in the Atlantic.

Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.

4/ To see AMOC’s response, authors used 34 climate models under two extreme scenarios:
1) quadrupling CO₂; 2) adding huge freshwater from Greenland.

In both cases the AMOC weakened, but didn’t completely shut down.

‼️ The explanation comes down to two stabilising factors:
tinyurl.com/264rmmrt

Assessing the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation of the past, present, and future - Journal of Meteorological Research This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to ...

3/ Global warming and Greenland’s meltwater entering the North Atlantic weaken this circulation, raising fears it could fail.

Yet most climate models don’t show collapse (i.e., weakening below 6 Sv) this century.

Until now, the reason for that stability wasn’t clear.

tinyurl.com/mrx5fza4

Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review Intra-annual AMOC variability is large and forced by the wind Decadal AMOC variability is associated with density variations on the ocean boundaries The subtropical-subpolar transition zone is a pa...

2/ The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports huge amounts of heat & salt north from the tropics & returns cold water south at depth – the Atlantic heat engine.

It shapes climate & rainfall patterns across Europe, Africa, the Americas & global ecosystems
tinyurl.com/2xu6x2ja

Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.

1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025.

New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social ‬in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.

But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires incre...

Hello everyone. Today in “One day, one paper”, Despite a 26% drop in global burned area from 2002 to 2021, human exposure to wildland fires rose by 40%, especially in Africa. Population growth and expansion of the wildland-urban interface doubled exposure per burned area unit 🌎

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🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.

Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.

📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

Earth's vital systems nearing abrupt and irreversible collapse, warn scientists An interview with the ClimTip project

❝ Evidence shows that many parts of the Earth system—from the Amazon rainforest, Atlantic currents to ice sheets—are losing resilience.❞ #ClimTip

💬 Read the full interview with #SebastianBathiany & @kuatabeshev.bsky.social for @maiaresilience.bsky.social

alterclimatechange.com/publication/...

Last month's total #Arctic sea ice volume averaged the 5th lowest on record for the month of July. This was about 60% below 1979 levels and 41% below the 1979-2024 July average.

More at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i.... Data from PIOMAS 🥼❄️🌊

Earth's vital systems nearing abrupt and irreversible collapse, warn scientists An interview with the ClimTip project

❝ Evidence shows that many parts of the Earth system—from the Amazon rainforest, Atlantic currents to ice sheets—are losing resilience.❞ #ClimTip

💬 Read the full interview with #SebastianBathiany & @kuatabeshev.bsky.social for @maiaresilience.bsky.social

alterclimatechange.com/publication/...

Pink orange clouds at sunset over a silhouetted treed landscape

It’s been so smoky grey here I’m missing these sunsets 🌅 #sunset