A Heaping Spoonful of Allegheny County Political Data

Alex Rose is proving that in Allegheny County, it's not so much that Democrats win, but also that Republicans lose.

I see two trends:

Republicans are ever so slowly becoming more comfortable with mail-in voting.

Republicans applied for ballots in relatively higher numbers in General Elections when compared to Democrats.

Except 2025.

The ratio of D/R applications for every election since then:

2022 P: 545/100
2022 G: 508/100

2023 P: 532/100
2023 G: 490/100

2024 P: 444/100
2024 G: 279/100

2025 P: 421/100
2025 G: 431/100

But there is a stat that sticks out to me applicable to Allegheny County at least:

For the 2021 Primary, there were 533 Democratic applications for every 100 Republican, with the ratio being 528/100 for the General. It went down: there were more Republican applications, relatively speaking.

The lowered return rate is typical for an odd year when compared to a Presidential year, but the biggest thing to note is the difference in the return rate. They were nearly even in 2024, but there is a greater than 1% gap in the Democrats' favor this year.

On Election Day Eve, the mail-in ballot status:

In PA:
D: 585,948 returned out of 737,669 applications (79.43%)
R: 219,288 out of 280,912 (78.06%)
I: 72,714 out of 109,432 (66.45%)

In 2024, this was:
D: 1,036,617 / 1,188,303 (87.24%)
R: 617,104 / 708,202 (87.14%)
I: 221,338 / 277,837 (79.66%)

... tomorrow, and though there are signs that Republicans will once again apply in large numbers (for them) in these final weeks, so far it hasn't been pronounced as before.

...until the last couple weeks before the election. Typically, Republicans apply in larger numbers right before the election happens, and the ratio winds up being higher for Republicans than Democrats. This was especially pronounced in 2022 and 2023. We are three weeks away from the election ...

I don't have statewide data prior to 2024, but I do have data for Allegheny County back to 2021. Typically, in past years (except 2024), the ratio of mail-in ballot applications for the general election compared the total for the previous primary tended to be higher for Democrats that Republicans...

Some aspects where that skews comparisons: in 2024, at the time of the primary, there were 3 Democratic mail-in ballot requests for every Republican, and this year that stood at 2.8 D applications for every R. By this time last year, that ratio stood at 2.1, but this year it is at 2.9, trending up.

I'm beginning to compare the mail-in ballot statistics this year to those of last year from a statewide perspective and back to 2021 from an Allegheny County perspective. It's difficult to make direct comparisons with 2024 because of the push the Republicans made for same-day in-person voting.

There's nothing quite like a 12,984-page campaign finance report where the string "actblue" appears 90,581 times and "stripe" appears 45,044 times.

www.campaignfinanceonline.pa.gov/Pages/ShowRe...

Expenses start on page 1,682.

Newly discovered stat: there are 44 voters registered as members of the Whig Party in Pennsylvania.

The maps shows, generally, that registered who moved within the county between 2020 and 2024 tended to move from the city of Pittsburgh and centrally-located suburbs outward from the center. Exceptions to this include portions of the Ohio valley and Mon valley.

This map shows how voters in Allegheny County who were registered in July 2020 and November 2024 moved during that time period. Areas in red show a net out-migration while areas in green show a net in-migration. This only includes voters who were registered in Allegheny County in both years.

Between the 2024 general election and 2025 primary, voters tended to move to Mt. Lebanon from Pittsburgh's Ward 19, Carnegie, Bethel Park and others, while voters tended to leave Mt. Lebanon for Scott, Upper St. Clair, and South Fayette, among other places.

This shows the parties preferred by new voters in Allegheny County who registered between the 2024 General and 2025 Primary.

Blue means more Democrats than Republicans/Independents

Red means more Republicans than Democrats/Independents

Yellow means more Independents than Democrats/Republicans

A map of Allegheny County showing how changes in the percentage of party registration changed relative to other parties by ward and municipality.

How party registration changed between the 2024 general and 2025 primary

% of Democrats went up in Blue, Green, and Purple areas, down in others

% of Republicans went up in Red, Orange, and Purple areas, down in others

% of Independents went up in Yellow, Green, and Orange areas, down in others

Congratulations to Haysville!

Between the 2024 general and the 2025 primary:

No voter was removed from the voter roles
No voter was added to the voter roles
No voter switched parties

In short, the only part of the county where there was no change whatsoever in voter registration is Haysville.

Dennis Very finished 22nd in the county, and 22nd or close to it in almost all areas south of the Ohio and Allegheny rivers. North of that, though, he did much better, but rarely in the top eight.

Jackie Obara was very strong in Elizabeth Twp, Forward, and the surrounding areas, but didn't finish as strongly beyond.

Elizabeth Hughes did quite well in Turtle Creek and areas like southern Monroeville and North Braddock, plus she had decent support in eastern suburban areas between the rivers.

Mike Sullivan's results were similar to Wheatley's, though somewhat less concentrated in Mt. Lebanon.

Hilary Wheatley did relatively well in Mt. Lebanon and some surrounding areas.

Craig Stephens did very well in Scott, Collier, Green Tree, and some surrounding areas, but less so everywhere else.

Ilan Zur did well in the 14th ward of Pittsburgh but that's it.

Bryan Neft rarely finished in the top eight, managing to do so in portions of the South Hills and in the 14th ward, but not anywhere else.

Sarra Terry was strongest in Ross with a good showing in West Deer, Shaler, and Kennedy, while weakest in Pittsburgh and the eastern and southern portions of the county.

Carmen Robinson perhaps had the starkest difference between places she did well and places she did not -- very strong in the 3rd, 5th, 12th, and 13th wards, portions of the North Side, Penn Hills, McKeesport, Clairton, and the lower Mon Valley, while finishing near the bottom nearly everywhere else.

Michele Santicola did best in Moon and the West Hills, where she is best known. She did not do well in Pittsburgh, but notably better, of generally below eighth, in the remaining suburban areas.

Amy Mathieu's results were very similar to those of Leiggi, doing well within Pittsburgh but less so in the rest of the county. The major difference is Leiggi did decently well in the 14th ward, while Mathieu did not.