54th Parallel

We can get a bounce based on technicals but I do think Trump sees chaos as a ladder, and that he wants chaos to consolidate power and have more bargaining power

APOLLO: “There are more data centers in the US than in all other major countries combined.” 🇺🇸

Since Nov 28, 1900, gold has underperformed the S&P 500 by 21,365% (1st chart).

Between Jan 21, 1980 and June 30, 2008, gold underperformed the S&P 500 by 1,033% (2nd chart).

I am cherry picking dates, but this is so you are aware that gold isn't the safe haven you think it is. Cash flows win.

buy

Do you think Bessent the better pick?

We will finally get a thinner iPhone next year

The rumored iPhone 17 "Air" will be 6.00mm thin. Not quite as thin as the new iPad Pro (5.1mm) or the last iPod Nano (5.4mm) but a welcome change after seeing the width increase to 8.0mm in the latest models

$AAPL

Thoughts on bad $GOOGL news being a positive for $META?

The fact that this doesn't seem farfetched really speaks to the times we are living in. This would have been insane to say 5 years ago

Agree

Genuine replies and less spam imo. Look at the replies to this post vs what you would get on Twitter
Agree with other comments that search feature has to improve

14/
 
I just don't see the short thesis on GOOS at these levels.
 
Curious to hear any other takes and I hope you learned something!
 
NTM EBITDA 9.2x
CY23 EBITDA 9.9x
C24 EBITDA 8.2x
 
Will do a thread on brand surveys/buzz later (which are healthy)

13/
To summarize:
1) GOOS is gaining market share globally
2) GOOS sales are growing
3) GOOS is skewed to China
4) GOOS expectations have been revised downward many times
5) GOOS CQ2 credit card data looks ok
6) GOOS already down 75% from recent high
7) SI is at 1-yr highs

12/
Lastly, short interest has always been high for GOOS because people pair trade it with MONC. Seeing as how the SI is high for the US float but not the Canadian float, this is likely true. However, the squeeze risk is very high now per S3 data (SQ + CS >85 is no bueno)

11/
Operating Profit expectations have been revised lower many times already. Maybe they get revised lower yet again (this is $GOOS afterall lol), but it does feel like we are reaching trough expectations. We also have winter season just around the corner.

10/

China soft/weak-reopening should help this quarter too at the margin. The company has one of the largest company-owned store mixes in the luxury space.

9/

$GOOS earnings are out on Thursday.
 
For all the worries about sales in the US wholesale channel weakening, credit and debit card data points to better than last year sales in DTC (from a small sample set, admittedly). See chart.

8/
An open letter to the Canada Goose execs:
Hire people that didn't spend almost 15 years at Columbia Sportswear.
 
That's it. That's the letter.

7/

I also think that GOOS designers can be a bit boring when compared to other luxury brands.
Where are the collabs? Make this s**t sexy! A few quick prompts in Midjourney can yield great ideas. See example below of a Tiffany-Goose collab.

6/

The only part where I may agree with the shorts is in mgmt quality when it comes to setting expectations. Really poor forecasting on their part and not cautious enough with guidance given weakening economy. Mgmt also pays themselves too much.

5/

Look at the charts in the previous tweet again.
 
You’d need a deterioration in market share in 14 countries in order to justify shorting a growing designer/apparel name trading at 9x NTM EBITDA.

4/

I think a lot of people see market share in the US, and assume that the same thing is happening in other countries.
 
But that’s not the case at all.
 
Here’s market share in every other country in which GOOS is big enough to show up in data.
 
All up and to the right ↗

3/

However, sales in the US continue to grow year after year (about 10% annually). They are not skyrocketing, but they're pretty steady and growing. See trend in the chart. Not a sign of a dying brand.

2/

I think that perhaps people are over-focused on the US market, which indeed has stalled over the last two years.

1/

Canada Goose $GOOS

Lots of haters on FinTwit on the name but they bring a poor game. I just don't see it. Canada Goose is gaining market share globally and growing (see chart).
 
Would love to hear more bearish views please!