Silvia C

Copenhagen: Cacophony at the Summit This is a shortened version of La Matinale Européenne translated and edited into English using artificial intelligence tools.

The first pilot of the Europe Morning Post is online.

“Copenhagen: Cacophony at the Summit”.

Let me know what you think. 👇

europemorningpost.substack.com/p/copenhagen...

Graph of GDP per capita growth rates in the euro area vs rest of the world. The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts, such as declining home bias and falling import prices, have offset the appreciation pressures from the productivity growth gap. Weak domestic investment is partly driven by global forces, highlighting the limits of purely demand-based explanations and associated policy prescriptions.

A Ifrim, R Kollmann, P Pfeiffer, M Ratto, & W Roeger show productivity growth differentials relative to the rest of the world are a key driver of Europe’s external surplus. Structural trade shifts have offset appreciation pressures from the productivity growth gap.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

It seems that the Commission will indeed propose one big fund to cover all existing structural funds and the CAP and to organise the payout from this fund via a single national plan That would mean a huge departure from how the EU budget and the MFF negotiations have worked so far.

Here is why:

The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the EU's next long-term budget on Wednesday 16 July.

Today, lead MEPs are holding a press conference on Parliament's priorities ahead of the proposal tomorrow.

Follow live from 9.30 CET ↓

La Danimarca, pro-europea per necessità geopolitica Buongiorno!

Il Mattinale Europeo è online.

L’analisi del giorno: “La Danimarca, pro-europea per necessità geopolitica”.

Con @CSpillmann 👇

davidcarretta.substack.com/p/la-danimar...

Già fa caldo e c'è il cambiamento climatico, in più ci si mettono anche i titolisti.

Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US Trump’s attacks on the Fed and growing geopolitical risks reignite public debate about repatriating bullion

The international monetary system is changing before our eyes. Germany and Italy pressed to bring gold home from US; a survey of more than 70 global central banks showed more were thinking of storing their gold domestically amid concerns about ability to access it.

www.ft.com/content/e393...

If you’re interested in applied macroeconomics, two A+ podcasts to stay on top of are JP Morgan’s Global Data Pod and GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins vs Breamish (featuring Bluesky’s own @darioperkins.bsky.social). Both have quite adversarial pairings of colleagues batting around forecasts/data.

"The doorbell rang at a time of day when I don't like to open"

Can relate

Dire “no” a Trump sull'Ucraina: l'UE mette la sua sovranità alla prova Buongiorno!

Il Mattinale Europeo è online.

L’analisi del giorno di @cspillmann.bsky.social : « Dire “no” a Trump sull'Ucraina: l'UE mette la sua sovranità alla prova »

Abbonatevi! 👇

davidcarretta.substack.com/p/dire-no-a-...

Chancellor unveils plans to maintain level playing field for British business British businesses will be supported to trade freely as the Chancellor chooses to act on practices that undercut fair trade, such as the dumping of cheap goods into the UK.

Tariff de minimis dominoes continues. EU, US, now UK’s under scrutiny.

www.gov.uk/government/n...

Happy Andor Release Day!

When Martin Wolf and Brad Setser join up to make charts you'd better pay attention.

More of China's tiny trade surplus will be rerouted to European markets as it bounces of the US tariff wall. And the urgency for the EU to respond with trade defence and its own industrial policy will grow.

Attendendo le elezioni del 28 aprile, il premier canadese Mark Carney tenta di abbattere le barriere commerciali interne, i regimi autorizzativi al movimento interprovinciale di cose e persone. Le guerre commerciali si combattono meglio se si è coerenti a casa propria.
markcarney.ca/one-canadian...

The Doubtful Guest by Edward Gorey

An editor friend of mine posted about this little Edward Gorey book. The title and his sneakers captured my interest.

I bought it and read it last night. Gloriously weird, *exactly* what I needed. I want a t-shirt with that little guy on it, 😁.

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

The ECB recently joined BlueSky, with @ecb.europa.eu 🇪🇺
Go follow it for the latest publications and information from the euro area!

I found some very old blankets, almost 100yo: they are very heavy! In Italian they even had a specific name: 'coltrone'. I think ppl made them lighter over time as easier to wash and store.

A recent paper by Eoin McGuirk and @nathannunn.bsky.social highlights how agricultural development projects can backfire in traditionally pastoral areas of Africa, fueling conflict instead of fostering development.

#EconSky

www.nber.org/papers/w33191

🚨 Deal on the EU-Mercosur Agreement

The free trade agreement "is not only economic opportunities, but a political necessity," says Ursula von der Leyen.

“This agreement is a winning for Europe”.

Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.

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Very happy to have contributed to this excellent strategy guidance note by Raj Chari for the #UN Committee of Experts on Public Administration

#Lobbying registers and #transparency can be now treated as instruments to address SDGs

publicadministration.desa.un.org/sites/defaul...

I have a new paper with @yotoyotov.bsky.social and co-authors on Canadian interwar trade policy. It is open access for 50 days, and is available here: kwnsfk27.r.eu-west-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F...

A lot of discussion about incumbency effects at the moment.

The plot below maps the trend since 1937. In Irish general elections, around 8 in 10 TDs who choose to stand again are re-elected. This re-election rate ranks among the highest in the world.

www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
1/2

The new von der Leyen Commission will be approved by simple majority at the European Parliament. It will pass.

But it will be difficult for Ursula von der Leyen to have the absolute majority of the Parliament.

Almost impossibile the 401 votes of July. My bet: just below 361.

The euro area current account surplus widened spectacularly in the year to September, mostly reflecting weak domestic demand. This represents a weakness (soft sentiment and poor investment returns), a vulnerability (to protectionism), and an opportunity, as set out in the article linked below.

Growth forecast for 2025 (% real GDP change):
🇲🇹 4.3
🇮🇪 4.0
🇵🇱 3.6
🇭🇷 3.3
🇱🇹 3.0
🇧🇬 2.9
🇨🇾 2.8
🇷🇴 2.5
🇩🇰 2.5
🇸🇮 2.5
🇨🇿 2.4
🇬🇷 2.3
🇱🇺 2.3
🇸🇰 2.3
🇪🇸 2.3
🇵🇹 1.9
🇭🇺 1.8
🇸🇪 1.8
🇳🇱 1.6
🇪🇺 1.5
🇫🇮 1.5
🇧🇪 1.2
🇪🇪 1.1
🇱🇻 1.0
🇮🇹 1.0
🇦🇹 1.0
🇫🇷 0.8
🇩🇪 0.7

Autumn #ECForecast → europa.eu/!VtjBdP

Geometriphylogenetics xkcd.com/3010