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Mike Beuoy

@inpredict.bsky.social

actuary creator of inpredictable.com co-creator of evollve.net

2,396 Followers  |  138 Following  |  320 Posts  |  Joined: 24.07.2023  |  1.9022

Latest posts by inpredict.bsky.social on Bluesky

My first boss was from Minnesota and a β€œduck duck gray duck” evangelist. He insisted it was superior, and more interesting from a strategic perspective.

31.07.2025 18:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Naz Hillmon

31.07.2025 04:39 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

that is a hot take.

maybe it’s from working in actuarial/finance for so long but I’ve found they’re very useful in answering β€œnumber was x dollars, now it’s y dollars. pls explain”-type requests.

and you get that type of question A LOT.

29.07.2025 20:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So, when the local Bloomington paper asked him to contribute to their "best albums of the year" feature that year, he just submitted a list of the Beatles 13 studio albums.

2/

29.07.2025 16:22 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I was taking his class when they started releasing the Beatles "Anthology" albums, which were collections of unreleased tracks.

He was so annoyed at how those were marketed because it ended up being so many people's 1st Beatles album purchase. Which is a terrible introduction to the Beatles.

1/

29.07.2025 16:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

History of Rock and Roll, I and II
Professor Glenn Gass - Indiana University

The only class I never skipped.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_G...

29.07.2025 16:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It can be shown that this is equivalent to assuming that whatever underlying parameter you're trying to measure (team efficiency, player value, etc.) "jiggles" according to a normally distributed random walk.

29.07.2025 14:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The constant tells you how many days (or whatever time unit you're using) it takes for an observation to be worth 50% of an observation today.

You determine the best constant through backtesting/cross validation.

29.07.2025 14:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Random modeling tip: If you're doing any type of modeling with recency weighting, I've found that the following weight works well across a variety of models and sports:

recency weight: 1 / (constant + time_elapsed)

This tends to work better than exponential decay or linearly decreasing weights.

29.07.2025 14:25 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

the pictures can't even do it justice

28.07.2025 23:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

That was our reaction as well. How isn’t this everywhere like McDonalds.

28.07.2025 22:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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If you’re ever in San Marcos, TX, you should check out North Street Beer Bar, a TexMex/Curry Shop fusion.

The curry queso dip is life changing.

28.07.2025 22:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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Pace and efficiency trends for the WNBA going back to 1998.

To the left -> faster pace
To the top -> more efficient offense

I didn't realize what an outlier those 2007-2010 Mercury teams were on pace.

As with the NBA, there has been a recent trend towards faster pace and more efficient offense.

28.07.2025 15:00 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

"Mr. Lehrer's muse is not fettered by such inhibiting factors as taste." - The New York Times

27.07.2025 19:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

RIP Tom Lehrer.

"If, after hearing my songs, just one human being is inspired to say something nasty to a friend, or perhaps to strike a loved one, it will all have been worth the while."

27.07.2025 19:45 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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My hobby: Trying to reverse engineer the root cause of a software glitch.

I'm fairly confident that the mid-July record temperature in Pasadena is higher than 84.6 degrees.

Best guess: They're pulling the record temperature as of midnight, but comparing at any point in the day.

From msn weather:

16.07.2025 21:11 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

just try to make stuff that moves you

that’s really all that matters

you can’t worry about the outside response

you gotta just focus on how you feel about the thing you’re making

if you think it’s good and cool then it’s a success

15.07.2025 21:40 β€” πŸ‘ 198    πŸ” 29    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 3
We Investigated Malik Beasley, "Moose," and the NBA Gambling Scandal | PTFO
YouTube video by PABLO TORRE FINDS OUT We Investigated Malik Beasley, "Moose," and the NBA Gambling Scandal | PTFO

*whispers* our new investigation is responsible for why I have been sleeping very little for the last two weeks.

but it's worth it.

@tomhaberstroh.bsky.social @darthamin.bsky.social youtu.be/c4u9--GM9to?...

15.07.2025 13:05 β€” πŸ‘ 387    πŸ” 53    πŸ’¬ 25    πŸ“Œ 57

Thinking about our April 6 story on all the ways Trump + Musk’s cuts shifted risk to average Americans

06.07.2025 14:02 β€” πŸ‘ 118    πŸ” 34    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1
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🚨HISTORIC MOMENT ALERT🚨

The W is leveling UP β€” three new teams, three new cities, one unstoppable future. ⭐

Say hello to our newest expansion teams:
🟣 Cleveland- coming 2028
πŸ”΅ Detroit - coming 2029
πŸ”΄ Philadelphia - coming 2030

New energy. New legacies. New era. #WelcometotheW

30.06.2025 14:03 β€” πŸ‘ 777    πŸ” 211    πŸ’¬ 31    πŸ“Œ 168

guess I’ll sign off for this NBA season but naming some of the possibly lesser known folks who have consistently upped my enjoyment of this league. In no order

@owenphillips.bsky.social
@keerthikau.bsky.social
@caitlinmaycooper.bsky.social
@crumpledjumper.bsky.social
@wtevs.bsky.social

23.06.2025 03:57 β€” πŸ‘ 88    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

That’s a wrap. Brutal end to what was the best and arguably most memorable run ever for the Pacers. To everyone who subscribed or followed along with my work this season, thanks for letting me add to your experience. It was a blast, while it lasted. Your support means everything.

23.06.2025 03:07 β€” πŸ‘ 496    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 1
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Pace and efficiency trends in the WNBA through the 1st 82 games.

Pace is measured in seconds per possession, so faster pace shows up lower on the y axis.

22.06.2025 15:11 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This is an extremely rare NBA Finals that has been played at a faster pace than the league's regular season average

22.06.2025 13:35 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Since 1997, there have been 8 NBA playoff series that went to Game 7 where the lower seed won the 1st, 3rd, and 6th game. The lower seed went on to win in 3 of those 8 series.

22.06.2025 13:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Lu Dort's shot arc is absurdly high.

You have time to grab a drink from the kitchen while the ball is airborne.

20.06.2025 02:41 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Pacers with a 1.45 points per possession off of defensive rebounds.

20.06.2025 01:51 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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It's crazy that possibly the best Simpsons episode was from season 3.

18.06.2025 21:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Lost a few sources from last year (so shout if you know of others), but bringing back the #WNBA Composite Power Ratings for now!

Sources
@espn.com: BPI
@inpredict.bsky.social: Inpredictable
@positiveresidual.com: Positive Residual

17.06.2025 16:48 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

[If you're looking for more NBA accounts to fill up your timeline with for tonight's pivotal Finals game, here's a reminder that there are two huge NBA starter packs featuring hundreds of users you can follow - 99% of whom are active.

Pack 1: go.bsky.app/5YP4x2U
Pack 2: go.bsky.app/DiLDwo6 ]

16.06.2025 23:33 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 6

@inpredict is following 20 prominent accounts