My first boss was from Minnesota and a βduck duck gray duckβ evangelist. He insisted it was superior, and more interesting from a strategic perspective.
31.07.2025 18:12 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0@inpredict.bsky.social
actuary creator of inpredictable.com co-creator of evollve.net
My first boss was from Minnesota and a βduck duck gray duckβ evangelist. He insisted it was superior, and more interesting from a strategic perspective.
31.07.2025 18:12 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Naz Hillmon
31.07.2025 04:39 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0that is a hot take.
maybe itβs from working in actuarial/finance for so long but Iβve found theyβre very useful in answering βnumber was x dollars, now itβs y dollars. pls explainβ-type requests.
and you get that type of question A LOT.
So, when the local Bloomington paper asked him to contribute to their "best albums of the year" feature that year, he just submitted a list of the Beatles 13 studio albums.
2/
I was taking his class when they started releasing the Beatles "Anthology" albums, which were collections of unreleased tracks.
He was so annoyed at how those were marketed because it ended up being so many people's 1st Beatles album purchase. Which is a terrible introduction to the Beatles.
1/
History of Rock and Roll, I and II
Professor Glenn Gass - Indiana University
The only class I never skipped.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_G...
It can be shown that this is equivalent to assuming that whatever underlying parameter you're trying to measure (team efficiency, player value, etc.) "jiggles" according to a normally distributed random walk.
29.07.2025 14:32 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The constant tells you how many days (or whatever time unit you're using) it takes for an observation to be worth 50% of an observation today.
You determine the best constant through backtesting/cross validation.
Random modeling tip: If you're doing any type of modeling with recency weighting, I've found that the following weight works well across a variety of models and sports:
recency weight: 1 / (constant + time_elapsed)
This tends to work better than exponential decay or linearly decreasing weights.
the pictures can't even do it justice
28.07.2025 23:01 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0That was our reaction as well. How isnβt this everywhere like McDonalds.
28.07.2025 22:29 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0If youβre ever in San Marcos, TX, you should check out North Street Beer Bar, a TexMex/Curry Shop fusion.
The curry queso dip is life changing.
Pace and efficiency trends for the WNBA going back to 1998.
To the left -> faster pace
To the top -> more efficient offense
I didn't realize what an outlier those 2007-2010 Mercury teams were on pace.
As with the NBA, there has been a recent trend towards faster pace and more efficient offense.
"Mr. Lehrer's muse is not fettered by such inhibiting factors as taste." - The New York Times
27.07.2025 19:46 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0RIP Tom Lehrer.
"If, after hearing my songs, just one human being is inspired to say something nasty to a friend, or perhaps to strike a loved one, it will all have been worth the while."
My hobby: Trying to reverse engineer the root cause of a software glitch.
I'm fairly confident that the mid-July record temperature in Pasadena is higher than 84.6 degrees.
Best guess: They're pulling the record temperature as of midnight, but comparing at any point in the day.
From msn weather:
just try to make stuff that moves you
thatβs really all that matters
you canβt worry about the outside response
you gotta just focus on how you feel about the thing youβre making
if you think itβs good and cool then itβs a success
*whispers* our new investigation is responsible for why I have been sleeping very little for the last two weeks.
but it's worth it.
@tomhaberstroh.bsky.social @darthamin.bsky.social youtu.be/c4u9--GM9to?...
Thinking about our April 6 story on all the ways Trump + Muskβs cuts shifted risk to average Americans
06.07.2025 14:02 β π 118 π 34 π¬ 2 π 1π¨HISTORIC MOMENT ALERTπ¨
The W is leveling UP β three new teams, three new cities, one unstoppable future. β
Say hello to our newest expansion teams:
π£ Cleveland- coming 2028
π΅ Detroit - coming 2029
π΄ Philadelphia - coming 2030
New energy. New legacies. New era. #WelcometotheW
guess Iβll sign off for this NBA season but naming some of the possibly lesser known folks who have consistently upped my enjoyment of this league. In no order
@owenphillips.bsky.social
@keerthikau.bsky.social
@caitlinmaycooper.bsky.social
@crumpledjumper.bsky.social
@wtevs.bsky.social
Thatβs a wrap. Brutal end to what was the best and arguably most memorable run ever for the Pacers. To everyone who subscribed or followed along with my work this season, thanks for letting me add to your experience. It was a blast, while it lasted. Your support means everything.
23.06.2025 03:07 β π 496 π 15 π¬ 12 π 1Pace and efficiency trends in the WNBA through the 1st 82 games.
Pace is measured in seconds per possession, so faster pace shows up lower on the y axis.
This is an extremely rare NBA Finals that has been played at a faster pace than the league's regular season average
22.06.2025 13:35 β π 11 π 3 π¬ 0 π 0Since 1997, there have been 8 NBA playoff series that went to Game 7 where the lower seed won the 1st, 3rd, and 6th game. The lower seed went on to win in 3 of those 8 series.
22.06.2025 13:29 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Lu Dort's shot arc is absurdly high.
You have time to grab a drink from the kitchen while the ball is airborne.
Pacers with a 1.45 points per possession off of defensive rebounds.
20.06.2025 01:51 β π 5 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0It's crazy that possibly the best Simpsons episode was from season 3.
18.06.2025 21:41 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Lost a few sources from last year (so shout if you know of others), but bringing back the #WNBA Composite Power Ratings for now!
Sources
@espn.com: BPI
@inpredict.bsky.social: Inpredictable
@positiveresidual.com: Positive Residual
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