Gareth Dwyer 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇿🇦

Otherwise not much to say. Things look OK for now. Yay for getting back into the green zone on my dial for the first time since I added it.

This data and more at my site unofficialeskom.com - feel free to tag me with any questions.

also nice to see Koeberg performing at near full capacity for the last 3 months. A small dip in jan from a brief outage but seems to have been quickly resolved.

Hopefully they figure out the long-term plan for the waste in one of the coming decades..

demand and generation still at very record lows though, so we're still playing on easy mode in terms of high availability factor and low backup generator use. I'm interested to see what happens in July when the private solar drops off.

Lowest use of emergency diesel on record? I have one lower value in Nov 2020 but I think that's a data glitch. Last month we never generated more than 411MW with the OCGTs.

Eskom data - January 2026

We skipped December as Eskom stopped publishing data in November and didn't fix it for several weeks.

Starting with a highlight: best EAF in January since June 2020!

All data from my site unofficialeskom.com - feel free to lmk any questions or feedback

still playing on easy mode because there's no demand, so let's see how that changes when the sun goes away and private solar turns off.

wait there are three

> ILS – Interruptible Load Shed. This is consumer load(s) that can be contractually interrupted without notice or reduced by remote control or on instruction from
Eskom National Control. Individual contracts place limitations on usage.

so super clear? Anyway, nice that they're low.

> IOS – Interruption of Supply: all contracted as well as mandatory demand reduction resources utilised by Eskom National Control. Includes IOS due to Transmission network faults.

> MLR – Manual Load Reduction. An estimation of demand that has been reduced due to load shedding and/or curtailment.

Interruption of Supply and Manual Load Reduction looking good. I always forget exactly what these are an how they relate with each other

Thermal is dropping, but that's a usual trend for this time of year. Hopefully it starts increasing from Jan->July again if we can keep squeezing the coal plants.

Koeberg second unit is back, so we have 900MW of extra baseload to play with which is nice (and maybe related to not needing the OCGTs?)

New installed renewable record of 7.5GW - looks like all those announced installations are slowly coming online. I'm not sure exactly when they count as 'installed' from.

Eskom data - November 2025

End of Diesel? According to the data, we never generated more than 350MW with the OCGT backup generators, which is the lowest I have on record except for nov 2020 which might also be a glitch.

As always, more graphs on my site unofficialeskom.com and feel free to ask me any questions and I'll try answer.

Radioactive waste storage at Koeberg very close to full Storage of such waste is a major environmental concern in the region, as SA looks to extend Koeberg’s life for another two decades

I learned that we store all high-level waste on the Koeberg site itself, and that it's full, so we're buying expensive 'dry storage casks' from the US in order to store more, also on-site, but those are also full now?

www.businessday.co.za/bd/national/...

Maybe we'll build something by 2030

not visible in the monthly graphs yet, but the other Koeberg unit is busy powering up again. AFAIK this is the end of the cycling/swopping of the two units for refurbishment and refuelling, so we should have both running simultaneously for the first time in years.

The big drop in supply and demand from last month was not a one-off.

Lowest imports, maybe ever?

Using those diesel generators a bit more again as a result

Eskom data - October 2025

Not anything too interesting this month - EAF down again due to an increase in unplanned outages, but still 'ok' overall.

As always all data and graphs from unofficialeskom.com. Feel free to let me know any questions or answers.

I'm not sure I totally understand each of these, but maybe it's because iOS includes transmission network faults.

The transmission network seems to be the bottleneck now instead of generation which everyone has been focusing on, as many people predicted?

but ILS (interruptible load shed) went down 🤔

also weird, IOS (interruption of supply, a mechanism that lets Eskom cut off business users) went up a bit compared to last month.

Very low imports too. Is everything down.

Massive demand drop.

I need to go double check that I'm not missing data that causing this, because it looks sus.

We're hardly using the OCGT backup generators any more, with very low average and max use (relatively speaking).

I think the best EAF in september since 2018, top of the chart for my curve graphs as they don't go back that far.

Eskom data - September 2025

Another dip in unplanned outages takes us close to 2020 levels!

Overall Eskom deserves some of the crowing they've been doing recently (unplanned outages down = good), but in context things seem to be

a) similar to a year ago
b) a lot less pressure due to reduced demand

So I'm maintaining my cautiously optimistic stance about future stability.