Tom Lubbock

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Why study public policy at Oxford? 🌍

With MPP applications opening 8 September, here are 5 reasons the Oxford MPP stands out – from global networks to real-world learning.👇
www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/blog/five-re...

Reform's 10 point lead with a share in the low 30s matches almost exactly Labour's election result last year. They got a 174 seat majority

Highest vote share and lead for Reform in J.L. Partners polling to date.
t.co/eJwn0GzAuX

NEW: JL Partners Voting Intention in The Sun

2,118 British adults, 19 August - 1 September 2025
Changes w/ 17-19 July 2025

🟣 RFM: 32% (+3)
🔴 LAB: 22% (-1)
🔵 CON: 18% (+1)
🟡 LDEM: 12% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 7% (-2)

Taiwan just ahead of the UK in value of trade with the US

The Chinese government will give families Rmb3,600 ($503) a year for each child under the age of three, state news agency Xinhua said. https://on.ft.com/4f9jihL

Great new report out today! The net zero economy grew by 10% in 2024

3rd interstellar object discovered? Maybe. There's a lot of buzz right now in the Astro community. More observations should come in tonight to confirm if A11pI3Z is from beyond the solar system.

Bergsturz in der Schweiz: So sieht es im Lötschental nach dem Gletscherabbruch aus Ein ganzes Dorf wurde nach dem Bergsturz in Blatten unter meterhohem Schutt begraben. Dahinter staut sich gefährlich das Flusswasser der Lonza. Ein Überblick im Video

Video from @zeitonline showing that Swiss village after the glacier collapse:
www.zeit.de/video/2025-0...

Big upside for the government if they can land an EU deal – our polling in @thetimes shows 54% of the public think there will be a positive economic impact. That's high in the context of this kind of event:
thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions fell ~1.6% in the first quarter and have now been flat or down for more than a year. This is the first time on record that emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand.

FT Exclusive: The deal, set to be signed this week, is due to include quotas that spare some UK exports from the full brunt of the additional 25% tariffs that US President Donald Trump levied on steel and car imports. www.ft.com/content/ca38...

'Bloody disgusting and unfair': Voters give verdict on Reeves slashing benefits Voters' panel voices fears over living costs, and anger that super-rich were spared in Spring Statement

My comments in the @theipaper on the Spring Statement:
Politicians need to realise that the cost of living is still the number one concern for people listening to things like the Spring Statement.

inews.co.uk/news/politic...

Weapons maker Rheinmetall is now worth more than VW.

Going into the spring statement the public rate Reeves' handling of the UK economy 15 points *worse* than Hunt's on the day he left office

Starmer/Reeves: -58
Sunak/Hunt: -43

Labour have to turn these perceptions around

MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.

- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.

Germany is back - economically and militarily.

1/x

'A political earthquake': The rise of Reform UK in the North East As the Senior Data Scientist at a leading polling firm, my job is to predict how many seats parties might win and assess their standing in national…

www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/opinion/2492...

Devolution revolution: six areas to elect Mayors for first time Deputy Prime Minister brings six areas onto the Devolution Priority Programme with Mayors to be elected by May 2026 plus four new devolved institutions created.

ICYMI - yesterday the government announced the intention that 6 new areas will elect mayors in May 2026 with powers over transport, housing and more:

Cumbria
Cheshire & Warrington
Norfolk & Suffolk
Greater Essex
Sussex & Brighton
Hampshire & Solent

🥳

www.gov.uk/government/n...

Latest polling from Lord Ashcroft on net zero and climate change: h/t @rentouljohn.bsky.social

Palisades Fire from a flight arriving at LAX.

Credit: Mark Viniello

The context for Labour's relaunch on the NHS – the public has soured on their handling of health over the last 6 months.

From a rating of -32 in July to -52 now

How China's Rising Emissions Could Change Global Climate Politics China has now passed Europe in its historical contribution to global warming. Rich nations say the country should contribute more climate aid.

China has just overtaken Europe for all-time emissions
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html

The fundamentals of this race right here:

Trump favorability 2020: -9
Trump favorability 2024: +2

The thing that makes this cycle so different to others is that Trump has always been an underdog. The fact that he is not this time round is one of the many variables that makes this race (still) so uncertain

Listening to Sam Coates and Jack Blanchard talking about the plan for the NHS and the plan for Prisons.

Tuned out for 2 seconds for a bite of toast and genuinely don't know which one they are talking about. Smart watches for patients/prisoners and moving patients/prisoners into the community?