Kayly Ober

T H E W H I T E H OU S E W A S H I N G T O N S e p t e m b e r 3 0 , 2 0 2 5 P r e s i d e n t i a l D e t e r m i n a t i o n N o . _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 0 2 5 - 1 3 _ _ _ _ _ MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY THE SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES SUBJECT: Presidential Determination on Refugee Admissions for Fiscal Year 2026 By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, in accordance with section 207 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1157), and after appropriate consultations with the Congress, I hereby make the following determinations and authorize the following actions: The admissions of up to 7,500 refugees to the United States during Fiscal Year 2026 is justified by humanitarian concerns or is otherwise in the national interest. The admissions numbers shall primarily be allocated among Afrikaners from South Africa pursuant to Executive Order 14204, and other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands. Refugee admissions under this determination, which may reach but not exceed the numerical limit described herein, are in all respects subject to the requirements of other Presidential policies and actions, whether issued prior or subsequent to this determination. Those Presidential policies and actions include, but are not limited to: Executive Order 14161, which mandates that refugees receive the most stringent identification verification of any class of alien seeking admission or entry to the United States; Executive Order 14163, which suspends the entry into the United States of refugees other than when the Secretaries of State and Homeland Security jointly determine that an admission is in the national interest and does not threaten the security or welfare of the United States; Executive Order 14204, which provides for refugee resettlement of Afrikaners from South Africa who are victims of unjust racial discrimination; and …

NEW: Trump has announced that the US will admit the lowest level of refugees ever at 7,500 in FY 2026. The US will only be admitting as refugees White people from South Africa and "victims of illegal or unjust discrimination," which leaked memos suggest means far-right Europeans.

This ‘impressive’ AI model predicted Hurricane Melissa’s perilous growth An artificial-intelligence tool is helping to crack the challenge of forecasting hurricane intensity.

“As early Oct 21 long before it was obvious that Melissa would be a monster storm the model predicted a 50–60% chance that it would reach cat 5, the Google DeepMind team says. On Oct 23 the model estimated the storm had an 80% chance of reaching a cat 5”
www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Saying we need to focus more on economics and less on climate change is just saying you don't understand either.

Screenshot that says "Melissa has passed over waters made 1.4°C warmer, on average, by climate change." and "Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely." along with a map of Hurricane Melissa's path.

To understand the climate connection to Hurricane Melissa, check out our real-time attribution page at @climatecentral.org: www.climatecentral.org/tropical-cyc...

"Climate change made the ocean temperatures along Melissa's path 500 to 900 times more likely."

Bill Gates softens ‘Climate Disaster’ approach, says strategy needs to shift: Interview Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates says countries and leaders need to shift their approach to climate change and focus on 'improving lives'

This is a weird take. In what world are climate change and poverty not intimately related?

www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/b...

if you see this post, your actions are:
- if you have a spare buck, give it to Wikipedia, then repost this
- if you don't have a spare buck, just repost

your action is mandatory for the world's best source of information to survive

Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) is exactly the storm I'd compare Melissa to. It was the only other time I've seen the Dvorak scale violated above 8.0, and the only other time I've seen a complete ring of -80°F cloud tops (shown here in pink).

Do commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average.

This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9]

davidubilava.com/Papers/prote...

If you read my stuff often, you'll probably detect a shift in tone tonight. It felt weird writing it. Truly hoping for the best but my goodness this is bad.

This is not exactly good news and will mean higher sea-level rise.

Joint Congressional Investigation Launched in Response to ProPublica’s Revelations on Detained Americans Senators, House members and even a mayor expressed outrage and demanded accountability after our investigation detailed how at least 170 citizens have been held by immigration agents this year.

“Over 170 U.S. Citizens are being arrested. Why? Because they look like me,” Rep. Robert Garcia of California said, referencing our reporting. “Or because they are suspected to not be a U.S. citizen, or because they are suspected of crimes they have not committed.”

Known Lethal U.S. Attacks on Civilian Vessels in the Caribbean Total reported killed: 34 people Notification Date Number Reported Killed Approximate Location Notification URL September 2, 2025 11 “in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility” (later revealed as between Sucre, Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago) View September 15, 2025 3 “in International Waters… in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility”; Colombian president claimed it was a fishing boat in Colombian waters View September 19, 2025 3 “in international waters… in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility” near the Dominican Republic View October 3, 2025 4 “in international waters just off the coast of Venezuela” View October 14, 2025 6 “in International Waters… just off the Coast of Venezuela” View October 16, 2025 2; 2 reported survivors “in the Caribbean” View October 17, 2025 3 “in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility” View October 21, 2025 2 “in the Eastern Pacific” View

34 people killed in 50 days. Their guilt or innocence unknown, for an alleged crime that doesn't carry a death sentence. That's a lot of death.

adamisacson.com/boat-strikes/

Scientists Confirm First Mosquitoes Found in Iceland Three mosquitoes have been found in West Iceland, the first confirmed discovery of mosquitoes on Icelandic soil, according to the Icelandic Institute of Natural History. As reported by RÚV, the insect...

The poleward movement of living populations from global warming is so predictable that scientists use it as a fingerprint for climate velocity itself. Unfortunately, this is the world’s most dangerous animal arriving in Iceland.

www.icelandreview.com/news/scienti...

> @reuters.com

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour Rescue crews airlift hundreds out of rural Alaskan villages after powerful storm

This is good reporting on the disaster in Alaska if you're looking for a reliable summary.

This is a bigger disaster than I think most are realizing. 1500 people have been displaced by the flooding with an exceptionally complicated response and recovery.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5kz...

Hundreds evacuating from hardest hit Western Alaska villages following storm Nearly all the homes in both towns were damaged and a tribal administrator said it was unsafe to stay.

Hundreds evacuating from hardest hit Western Alaska villages following storm

A tribal administrator talks about how shocking it was to be drifting in his house, worried they would hit another house. Six kids in that home.
alaskapublic.org/news/public-...

NEW: There’s a disaster unfolding in Alaska right now. And no major network is covering it.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong battered western Alaska overnight. Homes, with people in them, have literally been swept into the Bering Strait.

At least 20 are missing. No comment from any federal agency.

Half Of The 2025 U.S. Nobel Prize Winners In Science Are Immigrants Three of the six U.S. winners in the 2025 Nobel Prize science categories immigrated to the United States, one of them as a teenager.

A remarkable story: Omar Yaghi, born a refugee in Jordan, came to America as a teen to attend community college and later earned a Ph.D. and the 2025 Nobel Prize in chemistry. Immigrants have won 40% of the U.S. Nobel Prizes in science since 2000. @mclem.org
www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Former USAID official here.

The current Administration has done zero impact analysis to estimate the effects of its obliteration of USAID on deaths around the world.

It just keeps saying "no one has died" as a mesmeric incantation.

The facts, below. 🧵

Trump to Axe All 7 Hydrogen Hubs, Bucking Bipartisan Law A new list of Department of Energy grants slated for termination will hit clean energy and oil majors alike, including Exxon and Chevron.

Some additional info on the new list of axed DOE projects circulating.
- All 7 H2 Hubs
- All 13 IRA grants to convert at-risk auto plants to EV mfg
- 11 of 15 grants to speed domestic clean energy mfg in former coal communities
- 10 of 38 grants for battery materials
heatmap.news/politics/doe...

Trump to Cancel Direct Air Capture Hubs in Texas, Louisiana A new list of grant cancellations obtained by Heatmap includes Climeworks and Heirloom projects funded by 2021 infrastructure law.

NEW: Trump is moving to kill all funding for proposed Texas and Louisiana mega-hubs to capture CO₂ from the atmosphere

The bipartisan-backed hubs represented a rare clean tech industry where the US was on the cutting edge

by @emilypont.bsky.social for @heatmap.news

heatmap.news/politics/doe...

Claim: 10 cars rammed ICE
Truth: No cars rammed ICE

Claim: She boxed ICE in
Truth: ICE boxed her in

Claim: She shot a rifle at ICE
Truth: She did not have a rifle

Claim: ICE returned fire
Truth: Only ICE fired

Claim: She drove herself to the hospital
Truth: Paramedics found her

Millions rely on dwindling Colorado River — but are kept ‘in the dark’ about fixes, critics say Negotiations aimed at solving the Colorado River's water shortage are at an impasse. Environmentalists are criticizing a lack of public information about the closed-door talks.

Colorado River "impasse has raised the possibility that the states could sue each other, a path riddled with uncertainty that water managers in both camps have said they hope to avoid."

Great piece @ianjames.bsky.social

www.latimes.com/environment/...

Sprouts Farmers Market to anchor Reservoir District in Northwest D.C. - Washington Business Journal After years of setbacks, the Reservoir District in Northwest D.C. has finally secured a grocery anchor. Here's who.

This makes me happy

www.bizjournals.com/washington/n...

ICE agents raid South Shore apartments; Trump says Chicago could become military training ground ICE agents raided a South Shore apartment building overnight as the city braces for a possible military deployment.

“ABC7 spoke to Pertissue Fisher, a woman who lives in the building. She said ICE agents took everyone in the building, including her, and asked questions later….’They was bringing the kids down, too, had them zip tied to each other.’”

It can’t happen here, you say. But it is happening.

Jane Goodall, Eminent Primatologist Who Chronicled the Lives of Chimps, Dies at 91

RIP to a real one

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/o...

Your Wallet Is Taking A Hit This Year. Blame Mass Deportation The rapid growth in daily expenses for working Americans has been fueled in part by the administration’s cruel and chaotic mass detention and deportation agenda.

Groceries costing more? It’s not just inflation.

"You can blame the admin's chaotic and destructive policies for the pain in your wallet," writes @tusk81.bsky.social

These mass deportation raids are gutting the farmworker workforce, leaving crops unharvested, and prices soaring.

Who Bears the Burden? Tracking the Global Impact of Recent US Foreign Policy Shifts Since January, the United States has adopted a range of foreign economic policies with negative impacts on the rest of the world, including higher tariffs on exports, taxes on remittances, and reducti...

Folks @cgdev.org calculated which countries are most impacted new US foreign policy stances that affect trade, remittance losses, & aid cuts.

Unshockingly, poorer countries are disproportionately hurt & US allies suffer just as much as non-allies.

www.cgdev.org/blog/who-bea...

We out this myth versus fact re: the Refugee Convention and US proposed reforms.

www.refugeesinternational.org/the-refugee-...

Want to add a couple more points.

Chart shows Detention Population, Among Those Arrested by ICE in the Interior, by Criminal Record. The chart shows three lines; Prior conviction, pending criminal charges, and no criminal record. From 2019 through September 2025, the largest group is people with criminal convictions, with much further down people with pending charges. But starting in January, those without criminal records spikes dramatically. In July it crossed pending charges and in the latest data it jumps above criminal convictions.

🚨NEW: For the first time in history, the single largest group of people arrested in the interior and sent to ICE detention is people with NO criminal record.

As of yesterday's data release, 40%(!) of those arrested in the interior and detained by ICE had no prior conviction or pending charges.