Jared Rennie

I'm not in NWS, so not-essential

New pump up music just dropped.

See you on the other side of the shutdown

youtu.be/TA9deCtUNGM?...

Shutdown

🤷‍♂️

GOOD MORNING FOLKS!

Kind of

Justin Timberlake GIF ALT: Justin Timberlake GIF

Getting an email at 11:25am eastern with an action that's due by close of business September 30th.

My string of #Helene talks comes to an end this Friday in Downtown Asheville. If you're around, please join us!

Moment of Zen:
High Falls,
DuPont Stare Forest,
North Carolina.

I think yes Humberto is going to pull it away

This is PRECISELY why folks can't take just one forecast and use it as gospel over a period of time.

The models for #TD9 were super tricky, and 48 hours ago we were thinking about a landfall in the Carolinas as a possibility.

Now it's going to take a literal right turn!

“If it hits you, it’s just not your day.”

90% of people struck by lightning survive but many have lifelong injuries. We still see around 20 deaths from lightning every year in the U.S.

We’ve seen 5 deaths in the U.S. in September alone.

The best course of action right now remains to continue monitoring your trusted sources for forecast updates, especially in the Bahamas and along the coast in the Carolinas, and ensure you have hurricane plans prepared in case of major impacts. (graphic from NHC)

Western NC: Keep Calm and Be Prepared

#NCwx

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 looking like it's going to be a serious rainstorm for the eastern Carolinas The goalposts of possible rainfall totals in the Carolinas are quite wide

Here is our evening update on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, a system likely to become Imelda, hit the Bahamas, and then threaten the coastal Carolinas with very heavy rain. Details on the rainfall scenarios.

#ncwx #scwx

Woof #PTC9

Helene was also PTC9

We continue to monitor Hurricane Humberto and AL94 in the Atlantic.

Make sure to check hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast.

Plot of vertical temperature profiles measured by Argo floats for the top 120 meters of the ocean within 94L's outlook area as of 12 UTC 26 September. Inset map shows the locations of each profile where the line color matches the dot color.

Line plots of area-averaged daily sea surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical North Atlantic as of September 25, 2025. Black shows the 1991-2020 average, red shows 2023, orange shows 2024, and blue shows 2025 (so far). An inset map depicts September 25th's map of anomalies, where the dashed box represents the averaging region used to make the line plot values. These are computed from NOAA's OISST dataset using Python.

Infrared image from UW-CIMSS for 1420 UTC on 26 September centered on 94L (the "I" label) that also shows 200-850-hPa (deep layer) vertical wind shear. Green contours imply weak shear, yellow imply moderate shear, and red imply strong shear. Higher vertical wind shear tends to get in the way of tropical cyclone development.

Map of total precipitable water derived from microwave imagery by UW-CIMSS for 1100 UTC on 26 September centered on 94L (the "I" label). Higher values (orange, brown, pink colors) imply more moist air, and more moisture can support the thunderstorms that "power" a future tropical cyclone.

The tropical wave labeled 94L (no, I won't name it in advance) has warm water, moderate to low vertical wind shear, and plenty of moist air ahead of it. The system is partly over land today, delivering heavy rain and gusty winds to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Simple yet powerful.

Hurts me as a parent too

While the #Helene anniversary has been traumatic for most in the area (and the tropical situation isn't helping). the use of photography is important tel tell the story.

And as media will come and go with the anniversary, the stories should still be told, so we do not forget.

Helene in Southern Appalachia One year later: An event analysis and how we move forward.

Even if you're not from here, I'd suggest you check it out

Yes you can get your "disaster porn" fix , but you can also get the personal experiences from folks who lived through the event.

We even got permission from them to use photos for our story map

storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/8887...

Come Hell or High Water In late September 2024, Tropical Storm Helene ripped through Western North Carolina. Helene eclipsed the Great Flood of 1916, and is now the most significant natural disaster in our region’s r…

The @buncombecounty.bsky.social special collections group developed a website called "Come Hell or High Water" which is a fantastic website documenting EVERYTHING about #Helene.

It includes photos, videos, and oral histories.

specialcollections.buncombecounty.org/helene/

I've said before here and in local talks I'm not going to show damage photos. And I still probably won't.

HOWEVER they can serve as a reference for both past and future events, cause guess what? It's probably going to happen again!

They say pictures are worth a thousand words, which can be cliche, but it's SO true.

When @wxbrad.bsky.social saw that downtown Boone NC, an area not near a river, was flooding similar to their flood of 1940, he knew it was going to be bad.

But, what was helpful were the IMAGES.

This image is not from #Helene, but rather 2004.

When I saw the forecast for Helene, I knew that it was going to be like this, if not worse.