Jeff Frame

A mesovortex has developed along a surface wind shift within the line segment east of Lubbock, TX. The low-level circulation remains quite broad and has not prompted a tornado warning.

Storms will increase in coverage as ascent attendant to the upper trough spreads eastward, but meager instability, despite seasonal shear, and diurnal boundary layer cooling should temper any severe threat, but the strongest storms could produce large hail and strong winds. #TXwx

Storms in West Texas have struggled to organize before sunset this evening, as expected. The evening sounding from Midland depicts poor low-level moisture quality relative to mid-level temperatures, with CAPE of only 500 J/kg and CIN > 100 J/kg.

I don’t want to ban AI use outright, mostly because that’s practically unenforceable.

Speaking from experience, relying on it heavily for personal statements that should contain one’s passion, personality, and excitement just hurts your chances (and any human reading it). AI is a disadvantage here.

A line curve showing number of awards for fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal years 2021-2025 across NSF. The fiscal year 2026 curve lies well below curves for other fiscal years.

NSF Update

Funding curve overall. A little bit of progress in the past week, but only a little bit.

Now by Directorate...

1/11

GEFS dewpoint forecast at 00Z next Saturday.

Ensembles indicate that a true maritime tropical air mass characterized by 70s dewpoints should finally return to the Gulf basin by the end of next week, but another cyclone (a week + from now) will be needed to bring them northward. Predictability at that range is low. 7/7

Thus, while some localized areas of severe weather are possible through the middle of next week, a widespread outbreak appears highly unlikely owing to limited moisture and thus instability. 6/7

500 mb wind speed forecast at 00Z Wednesday showing a 100 knot jet streak over the Texas Panhandle

Surface dewpoint forecast over the CONUS at 00Z Wednesday

Surface dewpoint forecast over the CONUS at 00Z Thursday

This means that whatever surface cyclone develops in the lee of the Rockies in the early to middle part of next week will have very limited moisture in its warm sector, despite the impressive jet streak. 5/7

Surface dewpoint forecast at 00Z Wednesday for the Gulf and Caribbean

Looking ahead, another cold front will clear the Gulf this weekend and early next week, while dewpoints across the Caribbean finally rebound into the 70s by the end of the day on Tuesday. 4/7

Model soundings from this region (as well as the morning sounding from Brownsville, TX) indicate that this moisture is exceptionally shallow, and surface dewpoints would quickly decrease to around 60F with inland vertical mixing. 3/7

Surface dewpoint forecast over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico

Model analyses and forecasts also indicate low-to-mid 60s dewpoints in the NW Caribbean Sea, with NE surface flow. Models and offshore observations also indicate upper 60s and low 70s dewpoints over the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, but... 2/7

Remember those frontal incursions into the Caribbean a couple of weeks ago? The air mass hasn't fully recovered almost 2 weeks later. Morning soundings from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands exhibit boundary layer dewpoints only in the lower 60sF. 1/7

( #NWSWPC): What a difference! A week of sunshine and warmer temperatures have ELIMINATED much of the January/early-February snow depth across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Additional days of above average temperatures are expected for these regions into the middle of next week! 😎

#USwx #wx

( #NWSCPC): A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). A #LaNina Advisory remains in effect. #USwx #ENSO www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

Still a bunch of REU and internship opportunities with application deadlines in the next few days. Updated list/links here: wx.erau.edu/about/opport...

Looks like they delayed the end of the broadcast by 10 minutes

Infrared images from @eumetsat.int #Meteosat9 showed Cyclone #Gezani making landfall along the east coast of Madagascar (near the city of Toamasina, station identifier FMMT) as a Category 3 storm. Full resolution: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...

Sunny, mid 50s temperatures, and I just sent an email announcing the spring field course. #SpringFever

From Monday's NCEI January report...10 states from Texas to the West Coast had their record warmest "November - January" period in 131 years.

Only somewhat "below average" in MA, OH, PA.

My database indicates tied for second largest temperature increase over a 5 hour exact interval for Topeka, KS KTOP. FWIW

Atmospheric sounding diagram

The temperature in Topeka, KS, warmed from 28F to 70F in a few hours as this sharp, shallow, surface inversion mixed away

It's an Orangey Sky. Monday's start in Chicago.

A screenshot of the lecture announcement.

Looking forward to returning to my alma mater this week to give the @climasillinois.bsky.social distinguished alumni lecture! You can attend in person or watch online, link below. Tuesday @ 3.30PM central

calendars.illinois.edu/detail/3491?...

Seattle Seahawks' 'Dark Side' defense stifles New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX The Seattle Seahawks have won the franchise's second Super Bowl, and defense was the driving force behind this championship.

The Seattle Seahawks have won the franchise's second Super Bowl, and defense was the driving force behind this championship.

Defense wins championships #SuperBowl

Xfinity is the new leader in the clubhouse for the best #SuperBowl commercial.

For me, it was The Who (2010), although I have a few songs by Madonna (2012) and one by Coldplay (2016).

Enjoying the Big Ten West Championship Game tonight

That or State Farm, although both had cringeworthy moments.

I think wildfire smoke from either Mexico or Central America also contributed to the poor visibility.