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Alan Gerard

@wxmanms1.bsky.social

35 year meteorologist in warning/forecast provision and research, now CEO of Balanced Weather LLC, Disney/Peanuts fan, golfer, sports fan, TK Little. For more weather info go to https://balancedweather.substack.com/about

3,269 Followers  |  1,248 Following  |  2,980 Posts  |  Joined: 05.09.2023  |  2.2602

Latest posts by wxmanms1.bsky.social on Bluesky

All this shows is that the US has no idea what it’s doing and it’s being played by Moscow. Complete humiliation.

23.11.2025 01:13 β€” πŸ‘ 481    πŸ” 137    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 6
Some of you ask how a potential CFB playoff team could also be a Sickos Team. 

Well Oklahoma has 6 plays for -7 Yards after the first quarter.

Some of you ask how a potential CFB playoff team could also be a Sickos Team. Well Oklahoma has 6 plays for -7 Yards after the first quarter.

Some of you ask how a potential CFB playoff team could also be a Sickos Team.

Well Oklahoma has 6 plays for -7 Yards after the first quarter.

22.11.2025 17:45 β€” πŸ‘ 113    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 3

Just a legendary run for FSU football:

- NCSU punt so bad it bonks off a blocker's head and the punter recovers

- Defense gets stop, punt is dropped

- Defense gives up 4th down TD

- Return flight diverted due to fog

- Bus breaks down on drive from Jacksonville to Tallahassee

22.11.2025 17:15 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Gus fit check, Week 13

22.11.2025 17:06 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Looking at a record wet mid-November for parts of the Southwest, while record warmth persists in the Southeast Some flash flood and severe weather risk early next week in the south central US, plus a look at Thanksgiving travel weather

Southern CA just experienced one of its wettest mid-November periods on record, and Phoenix is having a welcome wet start to the cool season. Also talking about some flash flood and severe weather risk next couple of days. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

22.11.2025 15:45 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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ABSOLUTE INSANITY GOING ON
🌑️One of the most extreme events the world has ever seen
WARMER THAN SUMMER in Eastern Mediterranean

Insane MINIMUMS
23.6 Famagusta CYPRUS
23.2 Tascucu TURKEY
23.0 Kastellorizo GREECE

Minimums +17 in Romania and Ukraine‼️

And wait for my post with the MAXES !

22.11.2025 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 60    πŸ” 20    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2

Alabama's CFP resume now includes a loss to a team with a losing record.

22.11.2025 04:29 β€” πŸ‘ 55    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 5
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BalancedWx Special: Revisiting the Texas Hill Country flash flood catastrophe Recent New York Times article provides details about events at Camp Mystic

New details from media reporting and lawsuits by victims families suggest July 4 TX flash flood response was plagued by poor preparedness and deep misunderstandings. My perspectives on what has been learned about the tragedy and what we need to do better going forward.

tinyurl.com/2yyzza2y

22.11.2025 00:42 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Extremely cold conditions have prevailed under surface inversion in Lapland now for several days. Some stations have not risen above -25 Β°C even in the daytime, which is exceptional for the time of the year.

For example, KittilΓ€ Lompolonvuoma *highest* today is -27.1 Β°C.

21.11.2025 10:29 β€” πŸ‘ 74    πŸ” 20    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
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Sitka, AK, has reported a thunderstorm two days in a row now. November is the most common month for thunderstorms in Sitka - followed by October and then December. Oct-Dec thunderstorms in Sitka are 14x more common than summer thunderstorms. @alaskawx.bsky.social

21.11.2025 19:45 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The climate change issue to me is about people understanding their risk going forward. The threat for this flood was apparent, climate change or not.

21.11.2025 20:08 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe letting the HHS secretary override medical professionals and the DHS secretary override emergency management professionals (see my link) is not the optimum way to run a government.

open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

21.11.2025 19:17 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I grew up near STL so I've been to Hannibal multiple times which is why it came to mind to use as an example, but it's been a while lol.

21.11.2025 17:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Another excellent example of the type of damaging, dangerous flash flood events we need to increase awareness of

21.11.2025 17:47 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks, Justin, I fixed the map, I thought I was zoomed out on that original one but now clearly see where that original map was. It's funny, I had several people review this and nobody noticed that. Anyway, thanks for letting me know!

21.11.2025 17:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I may have it wrong. I asked the map server for Hannibal. I will check it, thanks!

21.11.2025 17:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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BalancedWx Special: Revisiting the Texas Hill Country flash flood catastrophe Recent New York Times article provides details about events at Camp Mystic

TX Hill Country floods have been in the news as more victims' families file lawsuits. I've had a lot of opportunity to examine this event - including visiting Kerrville - and share my perspectives on what I've learned & what we can do to keep this from happening again. https://tinyurl.com/2yyzza2y

21.11.2025 16:35 β€” πŸ‘ 28    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

This Utah law and campus reaction doesn’t seem to square with Gov Cox’s β€œdisagree better” project…

21.11.2025 12:23 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
Increases in average annual premiums in seven key states.

Increases in average annual premiums in seven key states.

"Climate shock." New study shows that rising property insurance premiums caused by growing weather extremes are cascading into the real estate market. Homes in the ZIP codes most exposed to hurricanes and wildfires would sell for an average of $43,900 less than they would otherwise.

20.11.2025 23:12 β€” πŸ‘ 90    πŸ” 43    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 4
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Media reports that FEMA council report being edited by DHS, raising concerns about FEMA future Active weather for much of country today, along with more record warmth in the south

The more I think about the reports that the FEMA council recommendations are being edited by DHS, the angrier I get. If an expert panel was brought in to develop a plan to reform the air traffic control system, would we be OK with the DOT secretary rewriting it? tinyurl.com/mp93fdkm

21.11.2025 04:17 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Media reports that FEMA council report being edited by DHS, raising concerns about FEMA future Active weather for much of country today, along with more record warmth in the south

Multiple media outlets report that DHS Sec. Noem is making major edits to the recommendations for FEMA crafted by the administration's hand-picked council of experts. It is crucial that those with actual disaster experience should guide how FEMA is reformed. https://tinyurl.com/mp93fdkm

20.11.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 2

Only one way to find out

20.11.2025 15:32 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

CNN, NYT, AP, and other media orgs literally have interviewed families of people killed in Caribbean boat strikes, including some who say they were just fishermen.

Lies nested within lies, all in service of violating the laws of armed combat, for no evident national interest advancement at all.

20.11.2025 15:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1147    πŸ” 320    πŸ’¬ 29    πŸ“Œ 8
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Family Affair: Commerce Secretary’s Sons Cash In on A.I. Frenzy

NEW: As Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick drives billions of dollars in foreign payments to help build AI data centers in the US, his sons help run a company earning tens of millions in fees helping finance AI data centers. A NYT investigation. (Free link)

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...

20.11.2025 12:02 β€” πŸ‘ 2224    πŸ” 1112    πŸ’¬ 114    πŸ“Œ 110
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Past is prologue.

In 1933, during the Great Depression, a group of wealthy businessmen tried to overthrow the US government and install a fascist dictator to protect their own interests.

And everything that led to it feels way too familiar right now.

This is not a history lesson, it’s a warning.

20.11.2025 03:32 β€” πŸ‘ 2849    πŸ” 1503    πŸ’¬ 112    πŸ“Œ 126
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β€œTicking Time Bomb”: A Pregnant Mother Kept Getting Sicker. She Died After She Couldn’t Get an Abortion in Texas. Walker is one of several women ProPublica found with underlying health conditions who died when they couldn’t access abortions.

NEW: ProPublica has found multiple cases of women with underlying health conditions who died when they couldn’t access abortions.

Tierra Walker, a 37-year-old mother, was told by doctors there was no emergency before preeclampsia killed her.

19.11.2025 12:00 β€” πŸ‘ 2101    πŸ” 1173    πŸ’¬ 64    πŸ“Œ 91
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Fire burning in southwestern Japan damages 170 homes and forces evacuations A man in his 70s was unaccounted for and firefighters later found a body, possibly of the missing man, and a woman in her 50s suffered a minor injury, officials said.

Firefighters and army helicopters battle a fire that’s burning through a neighborhood in southwestern Japan, killing one person, injuring another, and forcing more than 170 people to evacuate.

20.11.2025 05:00 β€” πŸ‘ 31    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Employee of a Federal Official Charged with Conspiracy to Falsely Report Violent Attack and Giving False Statements to Law Enforcement A New Jersey woman was charged with conspiring and falsely reporting to law enforcement that she had been violently assaulted with a firearm due to her employment with a federal official.

SCOOP β€” A former staffer for Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), Natalie Green, 26, was charged today for falsely reporting she was attacked by 3 men who wrote "TRUMP WHORE" on her stomach bc of her job. It was staged by her + a friend.

Van Drew isn't named in the complaint but I've confirmed w/ his office.

19.11.2025 23:22 β€” πŸ‘ 5995    πŸ” 2128    πŸ’¬ 306    πŸ“Œ 485

NEW: Larry Summers will immediately leave his role as an instructor at Harvard while the University investigates his ties to child sex trafficker Epstein, per Harvard Crimson.

Let the consequences begin!!!!

20.11.2025 01:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1807    πŸ” 375    πŸ’¬ 85    πŸ“Œ 39

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