Hallendorff

Raises many important questions. Does the resilience deter escalation but invite continuation below threshold? Does deterrence by denial actually work because it translates to strength? Is there credible deterrence by punishment in case the threshold is crossed?

Love these thought provoking write ups. 👍

The Atlantic Announces Free Digital Subscriptions for All U.S. Public High Schools None

www.theatlantic.com/press-releas...

Defending the national identity: exploring the links between a multidimensional national identity concept and the willingness to defend one’s country How does national identity affect the willingness to defend one’s country? In this paper, we demonstrate that in order to answer this question, we must take into account the multidimensionality of ...

What makes citizens willing to defend their country?

At least in Sweden & Denmark, "uncritical patriotism" has a *significant NEGATIVE* effect... and seeing one's country as *culture* has a significant POSITIVE effect.

Very interesting results here.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Ukraine: The Coming Storm Ukraine must be properly financed by Europe or unthinkable consequences will follow. Decision-time is fast approaching.

Like most of us, I probably call too much 'must-read'. This, however, really is must-read, from @tashecon.bsky.social @cepa.org. I've said for a long time that Europe can't afford to let Ukraine lose; now the financial costs of giving too little help earlier are soaring: cepa.org/article/ukra...

The Layer-Cake Model: European Minilateralisms Europe's layered defence formats enable action even without US leadership, but lack of an overarching structure beyond NATO is a challenge, Minna Ålander writes in the Europe Dispatch.

Important new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social The Russian drone attack into Poland emphasizes one very important change--a European only NATO group of states is beginning to take action. They understand that the US will not lead. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

How to Build a Post-American Liberal Order The world’s democracies must work together—and constrain Washington.

“There is a seeming logic behind Trump’s decision to turn away from democratic states and toward dictatorial ones: a desire to establish three spheres of influence that encompass most of the world,” writes Phillips O’Brien.

Latest article for @ForeignAffairs The US can no longer be considered a friend of democracy, as such the existing democratic states need to think strategically about protecting themselves and even starting a fightback. There is no point in pretending everything will be ok.

The Government Wants to See Your Papers And the Supreme Court decides that the Fourth Amendment might not be for everyone.

Will ICE send guys to Boston looking for red hair and listening for brogues? Or stake out delis in Chicago to see who buys a kielbasa?
No. This is about profiling people by skin color and language.

www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

The Government Wants to See Your Papers And the Supreme Court decides that the Fourth Amendment might not be for everyone.

Am I angry about the SCOTUS decision today that basically lets ICE ask for your papers like goons in a police state? You bet I am:
www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

First the EU delegation in Kyiv hit and now this.

It would be a great timing to say enough is enough and for Europe to deploy into Ukraine.

An apartment complex. A headline reads: "Did Switzerland Solve The Housing Crisis?"

The way that housing co-ops work in Switzerland may seem foreign to many. But the central idea is simple: What if homeownership had no profit motive and no capital gains? Advocates say their model could reshape how the world thinks about affordable housing. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/r...

Should Finland and Sweden reunite? The ever-deteriorating state of world affairs has prompted the Nordic countries to set aside their sibling rivalry and start thinking about a reunion.

Just published a wholesome weekend read, taking stock of the ever-ongoing bilateral competition between Finland and Sweden. Including my personal score !

Jokes aside though - should Finland and Sweden reunite ?

The Farther East One Goes in Europe, the More ‘West’ One Winds Up Nordic and Baltic states are driving the continent toward a more robust engagement on Ukraine amid apprehension over Trump’s dance with Putin

”Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to any number of unintended consequences, but none so quick and profound as the consolidation of the Nordic and Baltic regions under the NATO umbrella.

The Nordic and Baltic states have also been the most enthusiastic supporters of Ukraine.”

So I’ve been thinking a lot about AI use by students re: the importance of learning how to do a thing before you let AI help you with that thing. And then I came across this new paper about de-skilling in a medical context. :-/

Important discussion. Without discipline, there is a significant risk of both automation complacency and/ deskilling for the human and degenerative impact on the AI tools. The former due to lack of practice/complacency, the latter due to degenerating quality of practice data (due to the former).

title of article: "Where is Europe's ability to defend itself as America pulls back? Actually, it's doing better than you might think." https://europeancorrespondent.com/en/r/europe-fills-the-void

Interesting article by @alanderminna.bsky.social‬ noting how far forward the EU has moved recently, over the war with Russia, including defence strategies & alliances with Indo-Pacific partners and UK.

And we have the retreating USA to thank for it!

1/3

I kicked off the @eurcorrespond.bsky.social defence desk today with an article taking stock of where Europe stands 6 months after JD Vance came to Munich and declared culture war on Europe.

The placating strategy to deal with Trump obfuscates that in fact, Europe has moved a lot.

Opinion | The America We Knew Is Rapidly Slipping Away

The America We Knew Is Rapidly Slipping Away www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/o...

The President sees a bad jobs report, and responds by getting rid of the person in charge of the statistics. This is how America becomes a third-rate country.

It's a bizarre and frankly alienating feeling realizing that if you know the basic fact that the murder rate has gone down significantly since 1990 you're in the ~90th+ percentile of fact-knowers

Once again, Gen X is super wrong, but they're confidently wrong.

This @today.yougov.com poll is why I'm going to become the Joker.

The US murder rate in 2024 was likely down nearly 30 percent relative to 2020 and down nearly 50 percent relative to 1990.

Optics vs Reality In a Trumpian world, optics matter more than reality – but Europe still needs to deal with the reality as well, Minna Ålander writes in the Europe Dispatch.

This week in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social I look at the question of what matters more, optics or reality.

The EU-US trade deal was a great example of very bad optics of a partial nothingburger. In any case, the EU accepted a new economic reality where old rules don’t apply.

Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting

Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger https://on.ft.com/4obalZ4 | opinion

Spending 5 per cent on defence doesn’t make Nato stronger An arbitrary target won’t enhance members’ capabilities or co-ordination and encourages creative accounting

While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy.

My rant in the @financialtimes.com

Friendly reminder: the president who most increased debt in US history? Donald Trump! More than 43 other presidents accumulated in the country’s first 216 years combined.

The EU doesn’t need a deal with Trump The bloc has the strength not to offer the US anything

Martin Sandbu: "there is no settlement that will end Trump’s unreasonable demands and stabilise trade policy; the balance of bargaining power favours Europe more than conventional wisdom believes; and the EU may not need, in terms of its long-term economic interests,...
www.ft.com/content/d508...

Why Do So Many People Think Trump Is Good? The work of the moral philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre helps illuminate some central questions of our time.

Well worth reading. Building institutions or practices to permit people to develop, experience and practice shared values and cooperation may at least be part of a solution to moral devaluation or relativism.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Ukraine Support: Europe largely fills the US aid withdrawal, lead by the Nordics and the UK Aid flows to Ukraine shifted significantly in March and April 2025. While the United States allocated no new aid during this period, European countries increased their support. As a result, Europe has...

Missed this happy news last month: Europe already managed to largely fill the gap left by missing US aid to Ukraine by April this year.

The effort was mainly led by the Nordics & UK. Given that the Nordics are all small countries, this is yet another reminder never to underestimate the small ones !