David Hale

P5 QBs w/25 pass TD, 3K pass yd, 4< INT in reg season vs FBS/playoff era

2014 Cody Kessler
2014 Marcus Mariota*%
2020 Mac Jones*
2021 Bryce Young*%
2022 Caleb Williams*%
2023 Bo Nix*
2023 Jayden Daniels*%
2025 Darian Mensah
*1st-round pick
%Heisman winner

A peek into the abyss The ACC could miss the College Football Playoff entirely. That's just the start of the problems.

Also dug a little deeper on some of the data in today's newsletter, looking at the shifts in revenue, recruits, wins and NFL draft picks over the past 12 or so years. open.substack.com/pub/davidhal...

'Coastal Chaos' and 7-5 Duke: Can the ACC's longstanding problems ever get resolved? Duke's presence in the ACC title game isn't just a result of five-way tie for second, it's a symptom of longstanding issues.

The ACC is facing the real possibility of missing the CFP. Its a symptom of a conference that has been too slow to keep pace with the changing realities of the sport. I talked with a dozen current/former coaches & ADs to find out where it went wrong... www.espn.com/college-foot...

UVA's Mitchell Melton will be key in ACCCG. One of the most underrated players in the league (at least by All-ACC voting!)...

- 27 tackles at/behind LoS (1st in ACC)
- 17 run stuffs (t-1st)
- 14.9% pressure rate (t-3rd)
- 37 pressures (8th)
- 55 tackles (t-3rd among DL)

The Midnight Runners are gonna pissed about this. (Side note: I am very old.)

Nothing official but UVA has put in a request for a waiver for QB Chandler Morris to return in 2026. He was a 2020 signee at Oklahoma, where he played 5 games w/COVID waiver. Appeared in 4 games in 2021, got hurt in opener in 2022 and only played in 3 games.

Week 15 Anger Index: The case for Texas and monthlong gripes for Miami, BYU Which teams have the most to be upset about over their latest CFP ranking?

This week’s Anger Index: Should Texas get extra credit for 3 playoff caliber wins? Why is BYU seen as so much worse than Ole Miss? UNT > JMU is a choice. And why won’t Bama get the SMU treatment?

www.espn.com/college-foot...

Another off-the-board gripe: I'm not even worried about the Lane impact. But Ole Miss's resume is in no way demonstrably different than BYU's, yet the Rebels are FIVE spots higher. Same record. BYU has better SoR, more quality wins, same top-15 wins, same top-25 wins.

It's a small thing but it'd be so easy to bump Oklahoma over Ole Miss to set up a Sooners-UVA Round 1 game between Tony Elliott and Brent Venables/Chandler Morris vs. his original team. If this were the hoops tourney, it'd be set in stone already.

Team A is Miami
Team B is Alabama

Who ya got?

TEAM A: No. 6 composite*, best W vs No. 3, next vs. No. 24, Ls to Nos. 23 and 29, No. 14 SoR, No. 6 GC, 4 wins vs bowl eligible

TEAM B: No. 8 composite*, best W vs No. 7, next vs. No. 12, Ls to Nos. 13 and 39, No. 8 SoR, No. 7 GC, 5 wins vs bowl eligible

*avg of FPI, SP+ and Sagarin

Team A is Texas
Team B is Okla

Who ya got?

TEAM A: No. 15 composite*, 3 wins vs SP+ top 15, 3 vs SP+ top 40, No. 12 SoR, losses to Nos. 1, 7 & 41, has head to head vs. Team B

TEAM B: No. 13 composite*, 1 win vs. SP+ top 15, 6 vs SP+ top 40, No. 9 SoR, losses to Nos. 10 & 15

*avg of FPI, SP+, Sagarin

Team A is James Madison
Team B is North Texas

Who ya got?
Team A: No. 25 composite rank*, best win vs. No. 54, No. 18 SoR, No. 40 GC, 6 wins vs bowl eligible

Team B: No. 31 composite rank*, best win vs. No. 62, No. 22 SoR, No. 34 GC, 5 wins vs bowl eligible

1 common opp: Team B won by 4+ TDs, Team A won by 1 possession
*avg FPI, SP+, Sagarin

Who ya got?

TEAM A: No. 6 SoR, No. 14 GC, best win* vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, 4 wins vs. composite top-40

TEAM B: No. 7 SoR, No. 10 GC, best win* vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, 3 wins vs. composite top-40

*via SP+/FPI/Sagarin average
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Team A is BYU.
Team B is Ole Miss.

I think you can knock the staff for being too slow to identify their best guys (on both sides of the ball) but Steve Belichick made some needed changes after Clemson & it made UNC instantly competitive.

And arguably 2 best performances were vs. 2 teams playing for ACCCG now.

I've been accused of being too mean to UNC this year so something good...

the defensive improvement, particularly the pass D, after the 2nd open date was dramatic...

Yds/dropback allowed 1st 4 FBS foes - 7.3
Last 7 - 4.8

And it wasn't just about lesser opposition (see the relative differences)

Record in 1-score games in 2025
Tulane, 5-0
UNLV, KswSt, Miss & Hou, 5-1
Navy & aTm, 4-0
Mich, Troy, BYU, 3-0
-
Ark & Aub, 0-6
Penn St, 1-5
K St, 2-5
OK St, FSU, 0-4
TxSt, Wazzu, Lib, Mar, 1-4
BC, UMd, Pur, Tol, 0-3

Explosives vs. Success thru Wk14... playoff teams highlighted...
ND, Oregon, TTU, OhSt, Indiana are at a diff level
UVA = Bama?

Eye test?
Top 10 Game Control
1. Ohio St
2. Ore
3. TTU
4. Ind
5. ND
6. Miami
7. Bama
8. A&M
9. Okla
10. Miss

Best W (avg FPI/SP+/Sag)?
Mia (ND)
A&M (ND)
Ind (Ore)
Bama (UGA)
Okla (Bama)
Texas (A&M)
UGA (Miss)
TTU (Utah)
BYU (Utah)

Worst L?
TTU (ArizSt)
Texas (UF)
Bama (FSU)
Miami (Lou)
Miami (SMU)

Playoff picture:

Who's "best"?
Top 10 avg SP+/FPI/Sagarin
1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. ND
4. Oregon
5. TTU
6. UGA
7. Miami
8. Bama
9. A&M
10. Miss

Most deserving?
Top 10 SoR
1. Indiana
2. Ohio St
3. A&M
4. Oregon
5. UGA
6. BYU
7. Miss
8. Bama
9. Okla
10. TTU

I’m not defending. I’m saying he’s not alone and they all warrant criticism. And that it’ll keep happening because this sport cares more about $ than the product it’s selling.

Oh I fully agree. I’m not defending Kiffin so much as saying he’s not alone. This is yet another example of how the sport’s entire business model seems designed to minimize the actual games.

I’m not sure why this makes any difference? Doesn’t make him any more or less likely to take his own players or recruits with him.

Kiffin cannot possibly stay with Ole Miss for their playoff run! He’s a monster who chases the next job!

Meanwhile either Tulane or UNT will be in the playoff with a coach who already took another job but no one cares.

Wins vs. SP+ top 40:
6 - Okla, Bama
5 - OhSt, BYU, UGA
4 - Ind, Van, Oreg, A&M
3 - Tex, Mia, SMU, IaSt, AzSt, NCSU, Lou
2* - ND, Miss, TTU, Tulane
1* - Duke, UVA
0* - JMU, UNT

*partial list

Most wins vs 8-win opps:
5 - Ind, Ohio St, BYU
4 - NCSU, Okla, UGA, Bama, ND

vs 7-win:
6 - OhSt, BYU
5 - Ind, Okla, Bama, ND

vs 6-win:
7 - OhSt
6 - Ind, Oreg, USC, BYU, JMU

vs 7-win P4:
5 - BYU, Bama, Okla, OhSt
4 - UGA, Oregon, Duke(!)

vs 6-win P4:
6 - OhSt, Oreg
5 - BYU, Bama, Okla

FWIW

SoR
14. Miami
18. JMU
22. UNT
23. Tulane
24. UVA
59. Duke

FPI
7. Miami
28. JMU
37. UNT
40. UVA
46. Duke
57. Tulane

SP+
9. Miami
16. UNT
24. JMU
28. UVA
44. Tulane
53. Duke

SoS
44. Miami
74. Duke
78. Tulane
82. UVA
118. JMU
125. UNT

Through Wk9, we had 22 Ls by top-12 teams. Overall, top-12 teams had a .667 win% vs P4 opps.

Since Wk10, just 7 top-12 Ls, (3 to other top-12 teams) & overall they have an .800 win% vs. P4.

Halloween ended our chaos this year. Does that mean we're due this weekend?