Kenzie Krocak

Two things:

1. Large language models like ChatGPT are statistically likely word generators; they don't have "expertise" in anything.

2. I have seen a team of PhD level experts fail to assemble a dresser from IKEA.

The general public has absolutely no idea how much work scientists put in just TRYING to get grants, and then to cobble enough grant money together to do the actual research they envision. The idea that scientists (at least the ones I work with) somehow get rich off of grants is so laughable.

Three hands holding up emoji signs against a blue background, displaying different expressions from left to right: neutral, sad, and happy. Photo credit: Getty Images via Unsplash.

A study published in #WeaClimateSoc by @sean-ernst-wx.bsky.social & co (incl @mjkrocak.bsky.social & @wwwehde.bsky.social) found that survey respondents who described their feelings about extreme weather in positive terms rated significantly higher on tornado preparedness.

Read more: bit.ly/442d1Rp

Several wildfires grow rapidly in size in Minnesota's Arrowhead region.

Could certainly happen, but imo we know enough about who typically doesn’t do well in tor events (MMH residents especially) that we have to start doing better for those pops. WoFS guidance and other similar ideas are one of many we should utilize in the pre-warning timeframe, when appropriate.

Explicit mentions of uncertainty, suggested protective actions (that aren’t “get underground or die”) and being really clear about what the guidance can/can’t tell us. At least that would be my first go-tos :)

It’s definitely nuanced. Imo, there’s always going to be a need for the 15-30 min “warning-scale” notice. That said, many populations and systems need more. We really need both: advanced notice when we are confident something will happen 1-2 hours ahead, and then a warning again at 15 mins.

Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted

Call your congresspeople! NOAA provides incredible ROI and we cannot kill all of the cooperative institutes. I've heard people complain NOAA is behind ECMWF in terms of AI. This would flat out put us behind EVERY weather agency around the world! CALL! WRITE!

www.science.org/content/arti...

A tricky thing about modern society is that no one has any idea when they don’t die.

Like, the number of lives saved by controlling air pollution in America is probably over 200,000 per year, but the number of people who think their life was saved by controlling air pollution is zero.

Bloomberg article about the OAR cloud computing contract services going away. I talked about impacts on severe wx R&D in my Substack post yesterday.

open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

New paper out for early release - huge team effort over at OU IPPRA getting this one out! We tested several early prototypes of the Storm Prediction Center's Conditional Intensity visualizations with the public, emergency managers, and broadcast mets. 1/4 journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Multiple fires and evacuations in and near Norman OK. If you are not signed up for city alerts, go here: www.normanok.gov/public-safet... #okwx

Severe weather outlook for central Illinois

Today is my day off, but I will be heading to work in a few hours to help out with this outbreak. We have 10 people scheduled to work on an evening where the normal staffing is 2. We will keep working even if the government shuts down. Saving lives is our #1 priority.

Guest opinion: Robert Hart, Kerry Emanuel and Lance Bosart: We need NOAA now more than ever The recent seemingly arbitrary and capricious reductions to NOAA are seriously jeopardizing the future of the country and, more generally, the property and lives of hundreds of millions of tax-payi…

Nice piece by three heavyweights on the academia side of meteorology explaining NOAA’s critical importance.

Today I received an email expressing praise and appreciation for my work this week. That sort of simple kindness is like jet fuel for the soul.

I will never believe that empathy and kindness are a weakness. Praising a job well done, even when excellence is the expectation, is never bad.

Halting weather balloon launches in Albany is a disaster waiting to happen.

No weather balloons means weaker storm tracking, worse forecasts, and more lives at risk. Our community needs full National Weather Service staffing now!

Plug for a new weather app: apps.apple.com/us/app/every...

Developed by an NWS forecaster specifically for weather-minded folks who want ad-free access to NWS forecasts and more!

AFDs, CF6s, radar with SPC and WPC outlook overlays, clean forecast displays

Did I mention it’s ad-free? 😀

NOAA Cuts Leave Wind Chimes As Sole Predictor Of Approaching Hurricanes SILVER SPRING, MD—As mass firings of career experts and scientists continued to roil the federal government, officials confirmed Friday that cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...

NOAA Cuts Leave Wind Chimes As Sole Predictor Of Approaching Hurricanes

Another factoid, the NWS budget represents about 0.02% of the total federal budget.

“My weather app does it better!”

-Weather Watches/Warnings? NWS
-Forecast data? NWS
-Observations? NWS
-Satellite? NOAA/NESDIS
-Futurecast modeling data? You guessed it, NWS (via EMC).
-Climatology data? The weather data compiled over a long period by techs.
-Outlooks? NWS

Food for thought. 💭

I’m a federal employee, a research meteorologist at a NOAA lab (OAR-NSSL). I still have my job tonight. Many of my NOAA colleagues and many more of my fellow civil servants don’t. I want to share what people like me do. Instead of doomscrolling, maybe we can learn what civil service looks like.

Second this! But please don't forget about the folks in the other NOAA Line Offices. The folks in OAR, NESDIS, etc are developing our future weather radar technologies, operational forecast models, warning paradigms... the list goes on. The entire enterprise is valuable and deserves to be saved. 🥺

I am now hearing from multiple folks in the past two hours (including some who have personally been fired) that mass firings have now commenced within NOAA--including, yes, at the National Weather Service.

This may be a good time to remind folks that 1 out of every 3 Executive Branch employees is a veteran (the largest employee of vets in the Nation). And not all in DOD: more than 20% of GSA, VA, DOT, DOE, DOJ, DOL, DHS, and State Dept are veterans, some of the agencies hardest hit by these firings.

Find all the things NOAA does in your neck of the woods by visiting this page: www.noaa.gov/legislative-...

In Oklahoma, the list is quite long! www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Not as long in West Virginia, but there’s probably more than you think! www.noaa.gov/sites/defaul...

Excellent article explaining the vast ways the National Weather Service protects life and property, and supports commerce in the U.S. The NWS is the gold standard across the world, with many countries modeling the NWS operating model. It’s a government service worth saving.

Same. Our pasture raised blah blah fancy eggs were $5.14 this week.