Jan Brøgger 🇳🇴🇺🇦🇵🇱🇪🇺

Russia is weak, yet talks like an empire. But if “might makes right,” Europe could flip the script: Novgorod, Poland, Finland, Georgia, Siberia - all once conquered by Moscow.

The danger isn’t just Russia attacking Europe. It’s Europe remembering how to play the same game.

#Russia #Imperialism

6/ The bottom line: History suggests dramatic diplomatic revolutions create as many problems as they solve. Trading reliable democratic allies for an authoritarian regime that invaded its neighbor?

That’s not realism - it’s a gamble with America’s future. 🇺🇸

5/ Today’s version faces even bigger problems:
• Russia-China partnership is MUCH stronger than expected
• Congress is pushing back with 500% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
• European allies represent $1.3 trillion in annual trade
• Putin has a track record of betraying partners

4/ But here’s the catch: The 1756 revolution worked short-term but collapsed quickly. Britain dumped Prussia after just 6 years. Why? Allies of convenience aren’t reliable when interests change.

3/ The parallels are striking:
• Abandoning traditional allies ✓
• Pursuing “pragmatic” partnerships ✓
• Betting on a rival’s rival ✓
• Shocking the international system ✓

2/ Fast forward to 2025: Trump’s doing something similar. After 75 years of NATO partnership, he’s cozying up to Putin while alienating European allies. The goal? Split Russia from China by offering Moscow a “grand bargain.”

1/ In 1756, Britain ditched Austria (its longtime ally) to team up with Prussia, while France flipped from supporting Prussia to backing Austria. It was called the “Diplomatic Revolution” - a complete alliance reversal that shocked Europe.

🧵 Is Trump’s Russia pivot like 1756’s “Diplomatic Revolution”? Here’s what history tells us about abandoning allies for new partners…
#Geopolitics #History #NATO #Ukraine​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Denmark pushes to suspend Hungary’s EU voting rights Danish European Affairs Minister Marie Bjerre says Copenhagen will ramp up Article 7 proceedings against Budapest.

Right thing to do & thank you @denmarkdotdk.bsky.social! www.politico.eu/article/denm... via @politico.eu

Screenshot from book describing Elbridge Colby and his political stance.

For no particular reason, I happened to recall what I wrote this time last year about the current U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.

Kongsberg, who produces NASAM, will open an office in Ukraine.
They will, together with a Ukrainian partner, will produce low-cost missiles to respond to the increased threat from Russian drones. Norway foots the bill to adapt the NASAMs air defense system.
👏👏👏

A shiny rebuilt Ukraine will be democracy’s and Europe’s showroom.

Ukraine’s victory will be the best thing that happened to American democracy. The orange one who licks Putin’s boot will not survive it, metaphorically.

They are a stopgap. Autonomy is the future. Compute is cheap, and range extensive.

A Region in the Making: The Nordic-Baltic Alignment - ICDS In the past three years, the Nordic-Baltic group has reached unprecedented levels of coherence and prominence. The main drivers of the alignment are the shared threat assessment that Russia poses an e...

For @icds-tallinn.bsky.social, I wrote that the whole Nordic-Baltic region is a potential frontline in a conflict with Russia - not only the Baltic states and Finland but also Norwegian High North and even Denmark together with Sweden as gatekeepers of the Baltic Sea and Iceland along the GIUK gap.

Careful with your tone. European NATO can clearly see that Ukraine is winning. Russia is boxed in. Any Russian full mobilization and conscription activates NATOs Russian bordering countries to respond.

A heroic flag-draped Ukranian soldier crushing the Soviet star underfoot, flanked by drones and jets

Ukraine is Europe’s army. Russia has no path to victory — only delay, destruction, and decline. Airspace is breached. Rail lines choked. Industry burns under relentless drone strikes. It’s time for Russia to withdraw. NATO watches in awe — and is ready to match any escalation. #Ukraine #NAFO

If NATO were a relationship, the US just stopped sleeping over, turned off location sharing, and won’t pick up your calls.
Not a breakup, technically — but you’re definitely not safe to walk home at night. Europe needs to rearm. #NATO #Europe #USExit www.politico.eu/article/nato...

Russians could always just go home.

It’s the fastest way to end the war.

I honestly struggle to come up with a historical comparison. Destroying strategic assets that difficult to impossible to replace has been done, daring special forces raids have been done, and striking airbases to great effect has been done, all of which are hard to do, but to combine all three?

The first Ukranian aircraft carrier 😉

Donald wake up we found negotiation CARDS

I sort of accidentally created a monster thread with lots of links for #OperationSpiderweb (Operatsiya
Pavutyna) where #Ukraine spent 18 months planning a sabotage mission targeting russia’s bombers used to terror bomb civilians in Ukraine that they executed today.

Well done and #SlavaUkraini

Russia has already lost. It bled half a million troops for barren fields. Its Black Sea Fleet is gone. Bombers burn in their own hangars. Bridges collapse far from the front. 🇺🇦 Ukraine fights with brilliance—drones, sabotage, strategy. This is defeat by design. #victory #ukraine #nafo

Ukraine’s strategic genius at work: massive drone attacks today deep inside Russia destroy key bombers as critical railway bridges collapse. Russian logistics are crumbling - fast. NAFO party in Kyiv soon! #nafo

I was skeptical, checked. SCOTUS gave Trump immunity. The “Big Beautiful Bill” blocks court enforcement unless a bond is posted (Sec. 70302) & bans nationwide injunctions. Opens the door to effectively defying election law with little legal consequence. Lot of executive power, difficult to fight.

Russia has lost: 100 casualties per km² in 2024–25. To take the rest of Donbas?
→ 1.5M casualties
→ 4–6M men needed.

Russia can’t win.
Defeat the invasion.
Rebuild Ukraine.
Secure Europe. Defend democracy.
#ukraine