CTML - Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference

CTML Co-Director Mark van der Laan’s talk will be presented at the Pharmaceutical Users Software Exchange (PHUSE) Workshop on Jan 29th, 2026, from 10AM–11AM (EST). The talk will be available online via Zoom. Click the link to register today! 🔗: https://www.phuse-events.org/attend/frontend/reg/tOtherPage.csp?pageID=80014&eventID=106&traceRedir=4

CTML Co-Director Mark van der Laan’s talk will be presented at the Pharmaceutical Users Software Exchange (PHUSE) Workshop on Jan 29th, 2026, from 10AM–11AM (EST). The talk will be available online via Zoom. Click the link to register today! 🔗: www.phuse-events.org/attend/front...

Former CTML Postdoc David McCoy will be presenting his and CTML Postdoc Zach Butzin-Dozier's research at the Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 2025 Conference in Mexico City. If attending the conference, please stop by and check out their poster!

Former CTML Postdoc David McCoy will be presenting his and CTML Postdoc Zach Butzin-Dozier's research at the Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 2025 Conference in Mexico City. If attending the conference, please stop by and check out their poster!

Thank you to Antonio Remiro Azócar for presenting his talk "Data Fusion for Indirect Treatment Comparisons in Health Technology Assessment" as part of the JICI Lab Seminar Series on 12/2/2025. To learn more about Antonio's work, please scan the QR code or visit lnkd.in/ge_qruVY.

CTML Postdoc Marie Charpignon, will be presenting her poster at the AHLI 2025 ML4H Symposium next Monday, December 1st. If you’ll be attending AHLI, we welcome you to stop by Poster #4 to learn more about her work on federated target trial emulation using EHR data spanning multiple health systems!

CTML Postdoc Marie Charpignon, will be presenting her poster at the AHLI 2025 ML4H Symposium next Monday, December 1st. If you’ll be attending AHLI, we welcome you to stop by Poster #4 to learn more about her work on federated target trial emulation using EHR data spanning multiple health systems!

T-shirt only: We’re reopening Professor Art Reingold’s commemorative t-shirt store for the last time! 🎉

Celebrate his remarkable career and legacy with an exclusive t-shirt designed just for this occasion.

📦Order here: www.customink.com/g/rgc0-00cz-...

📅 The store will close on November 30th.

Interest in AI for social impact? Join us on December 2nd as CTML’s Dr. Laura Balzer presents her latest research during #BerkeleyPublicHealth’s virtual Latest in Public Health Research series.

To register for zoom: lnkd.in/gXT-k2Ve

For more info: lnkd.in/girU-8Cf

Thank you to Alejandro Schuler, for presenting his talk "Increasing the Efficiency of Randomized Trials with Machine Learning" as part of the JICI Lab Seminar Series on 11/18/2025. To learn more about Alejandro’s talk, please scan the QR code or visit lnkd.in/ge_qruVY.

A big thank you to CTML's Co-Director Mark van der Laan for delivering an engaging talk on "Targeted Learning as a Principled Statistical Approach for Decision Making" at the Bay Area Biotech-Pharma Statistics Workshop on November 7, 2025!

Meet one of our newest team members, Sophie Chen.

"Hi everyone! My name is Sophie! I'm an undergrad student pursuing a double degree in Statistics and Economics with a Data Science minor. I'm interested in finance and technology. I'm excited to be part of the CTML community!"

Continuing our CTML Seminar Series is CTML GSR, Yi Li. His talk, "Targeted Deep Architectures: A TMLE-Based Framework for Robust Causal Inference in Neural Networks" will take place on October 29th at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401. You won't want to miss it!

Modern neural networks excel at prediction but often produce biased estimates and unreliable uncertainty for causal target parameters(e.g., average treatment effects or entire survival curves). This talk introduces Targeted Deep Architectures (TDA), a framework that embeds a targeted maximum likelihood–style update directly into a network’s parameter space. TDA freezes most weights, identifies a small “targeting” subset, and projects influence functions onto network gradients to obtain a targeting direction that iteratively removes first‑order bias. The resulting universal targeting gradient enables simultaneous debiasing of multidimensional parameters—for example, an entire survival curve—without cumbersome post‑hoc fluctuations or specialized losses. If time permits, I will also present our new work on weighted‑path updates for simultaneous targeting of multidimensional parameters, where per‑component targeting directions are combined via statistically informed weights to produce stable, coherent updates and practical convergence criteria. The framework is model‑agnostic and integrates seamlessly with modern deep architectures.

Continuing our CTML Seminar Series is CTML GSR, Yi Li. His talk, "Targeted Deep Architectures: A TMLE-Based Framework for Robust Causal Inference in Neural Networks" will take place on October 29th at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401. You won't want to miss it!

Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference (CTML) at DahShu Data Science Symposium 2025! Mark van der Laan, CTML Faculty, and Sky Qiu, CTML Graduate Student Researcher, will be presenting a full-day short course titled "Highly Adaptive Lasso and Targeted Learning" at the DahShu Data Science Symposium 2025: Innovative Frontiers – AI and Data-Driven Advances in Drug Development, Precision Medicine, and Healthcare. Saturday, October 18th 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM This short course introduces the Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) and its role in advancing Targeted Learning, a general framework for constructing asymptotically linear, efficient estimators under realistic assumptions about the data generating process. Attendees will learn about HAL’s theoretical properties, its implementation for causal inference in R, and new developments including A-TMLE, P-TMLE, and DeepLTMLE with applications to modern challenges in drug development and precision medicine. Make sure to catch their course during the symposium!

CTML Faculty Mark van der Laan and CTML GSR Sky Qiu will be presenting a full-day short course at the DahShu Data Science Symposium 2025: Innovative Frontiers – AI and Data-Driven Advances in Drug Development, Precision Medicine, and Healthcare.

📅 Saturday, Oct 18
🕘 9AM – 5PM

The next talk in our CTML Seminar Series is coming up on October 15th! Join us for an engaging discussion led by Michael Rosenblum, Ph.D.(link is external), Professor of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, on "Methodological Problems in Every Black-Box Study of Forensic Firearm Comparisons." This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

Reviews conducted by the National Academy of Sciences (2009) and the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) concluded that the field of forensic firearm comparisons has not been demonstrated to be scientifically valid. Scientific validity requires adequately designed studies of firearm examiner performance in terms of accuracy, repeatability, and reproducibility. Researchers have performed “black-box” studies with the goal of estimating these performance measures. As statisticians with expertise in experimental design, we conducted a literature search of such studies to date and then evaluated the designand statistical analysis methods used in each study. Our conclusion is that all studies in our literature search have methodological flaws that are so grave that they render the studies invalid, that is, incapable of establishing scientific validity of the field of firearms examination. Notably, error rates among firearms examiners, both collectively and individually, remain unknown. Therefore, statements about the common origin of bullets or cartridge cases that are based on examination of “individual” characteristics do not have a scientific basis. We provide some recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies.

The next talk in our CTML Seminar Series is coming up on Oct 15! Join us for an engaging discussion led by Michael Rosenblum, Prof. of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

T-shirt only: We’re reopening Professor Art Reingold’s commemorative t-shirt store for a limited time! Celebrate his remarkable career and legacy with an exclusive t-shirt designed just for this occasion. Link in bio to order! The store will close by October 25th.

T-shirt only: We’re reopening Professor Art Reingold’s commemorative t-shirt store for a limited time! 🎉

Celebrate his remarkable career and legacy with an exclusive t-shirt designed just for this occasion.

📦 Link in bio to order!
📅 The store will close by October 25th.

Don't miss the next session of the CTML Seminar Series on October 1st, where Wenxin Zhang will discuss "Efficient Statistical Estimation for Sequential Adaptive Experiments with Implications for Adaptive Designs." This talk will take place from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation based on accumulating data. At the end of adaptive experiments, it is often desirable to answer various causal questions based on the observed data. However, the adaptive nature of such experiments and the resulting dependence among observations pose significant challenges for providing statistical inference of causal estimands. Building upon the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) literature that has provided valid statistical inference tailored to adaptive experimental settings, I will discuss our recent advance in efficient statistical inference under relaxed assumptions of adaptive experiments, with their implications for improving adaptive designs.

Don't miss the next session of the CTML Seminar Series on October 1st, where Wenxin Zhang will discuss "Efficient Statistical Estimation for Sequential Adaptive Experiments with Implications for Adaptive Designs." This talk will take place from 12-1 PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

📢 Don’t miss this session today at the ASA Biopharmaceutical Section RISW 2025!

CTML Faculty Mark van der Laan, will be presenting:
“The Causal Roadmap and Adaptive TMLE for ECT-Hybrid Designs”

📅 Sept 25
🕐 1:15PM – 2:30PM(EDT)

Be sure to add this to your agenda if you’re attending the conference!

Thank you to our outstanding speakers & panelists for sharing their expertise at this year’s Fall Visit for the Joint Initiative for Causal Inference (JICI)!

A special note of appreciation goes to CTML Leads, Maya Petersen and Mark van der Laan, for their leadership in making this event a success.

There’s still time to contribute to Professor Art Reingold’s legacy book!

📝 Please keep testimonials to 100 words or less.
📸 You may share a photo in your commemorative t-shirt, holding his graphic, or with Art.
📬 Submissions due by Sept 30: forms.gle/LY4T126cPjdq...

We are excited to announce CTML faculty, students and staff will lead roundtable discussions at the upcoming RISW (Regulatory Industry Statistic Workshop) at the ASA (American Statistical Association) conference in Rockville, Maryland! Date: September 25, 2025 Time: 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM (EDT)

We are excited to announce CTML faculty, students and staff will lead roundtable discussions at the upcoming RISW (Regulatory Industry Statistic Workshop) at the ASA (American Statistical Association) conference in Rockville, Maryland!

📌 Date: September 25, 2025
📌 Time: 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM (EDT)

Mark your calendars for September 17th! The CTML Seminar Series explores “Causal Inference via Electronic Health Record Data.” This exciting talk will be led by CTML's Postdoc Zachary Butzin-Dozier from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

📖 The Legacy of Art
Help honor Professor Art Reingold with a legacy book of memories.
📸 Share a photo with Art, in your t-shirt, or with his graphic + 📝 a testimonial by Sept 30 to this link: forms.gle/LY4T126cPjdq...

Every submission adds to the story of Art’s impactful career!

The Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference (CTML) Seminar Series continues on September 10th! Join us for an exciting talk on "Machine Learning, Causal Queueing, and SiMLQ for Data Driven Simulation." Opher Baron, Professor of Operations Management at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, will be presenting joint work with Zhenghang Xu, a fifth-year PhD candidate in Operations Management and Statistics. This talk will take place from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

The objective of this talk is to expose researchers to the vast possibilities of using modern machinery and data for implementing effective management analytics for queueing processes. Such process are ubiquitous in modern economies, e.g., customers waiting to service, inventory waiting for processing/transportation, payments and invoices waiting to be generated/cleared, computing tasks waiting for resources. I will thus discuss recent developments in queueing analysis based on several papers. We will also see a demo of www.SiMLQ.com that demonstrates how to take this theory to practice.

The CTML Seminar Series continues on Sept 10! Join us for an exciting talk on "Machine Learning, Causal Queueing, and SiMLQ for Data Driven Simulation." Opher Baron will be presenting joint work with Zhenghang Xu. This talk will take place from 12PM-1PM at BWW, 5th Fl, Rm 5401.

Join us on September 3rd to kick off our Fall 2025 CTML Seminar Series! Adam Yala, Assistant Professor in Computational Precision Health, Statistics, and Computer Science (EECS), will start our series with his talk "AI for Personalized Cancer Care." This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401. Early detection significantly improves outcomes across many cancers, motivating major investments in population-wide screening programs, such as low-dose CT for lung cancer. To make screening more effective, we must simultaneously improve early detection for patients who will develop cancer while minimizing the harms of over screening. Advancing this Pareto frontier requires progress across three fronts: (1) accurately predicting patient outcomes from all available data, (2) designing intervention strategies tailored to risk, and (3) evaluating and translating these strategies into clinical practice. In this talk, I will present ongoing work across all three areas, driven by the goal of using every available bit of patient data to personalize care.

Join us on Sept 3rd to kick off our Fall 2025 CTML Seminar Series! Adam Yala, Assistant Prof. in Computational Precision Health, Statistics, and Computer Science (EECS), will start our series with his talk "AI for Personalized Cancer Care." This talk will take place at 12PM at BWW, 5th Fl, Rm 5401.

CTML Postdoc Marie-Laure Charpignon will be presenting during the poster session at the upcoming ISCB Conference on Wednesday, August 27. If you are attending ISCB, be sure to stop by the session and show your support!

CTML Postdoc Marie-Laure Charpignon will be presenting during the poster session at the upcoming ISCB Conference on Wednesday, August 27. If you are attending ISCB, be sure to stop by the session and show your support! 🎉

Final Day to Order 🎉 Join us in celebrating Professor Art Reingold’s remarkable career and legacy—our commemorative t-shirt store closes today. Secure your shirt now and take part in this special tribute!

Final Week to Order! 🎉 Don’t miss your chance to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! Our t-shirt store closes this Friday, Aug 22—order yours today & join in celebrating his incredible career and impact! Links to online store, graphics and google form for testimony submissions in our bio 🔗

Stay Connected with CTML! From cutting-edge publications and upcoming events to exciting achievements in our community, our newsletter keeps you in the loop. Subscribe today! Scan QR code or click the link in our bio to join.

Stay Connected with CTML! From cutting-edge publications and upcoming events to exciting achievements in our community, our newsletter keeps you in the loop.

📬 Subscribe today! Scan QR code or click the link in our bio to join.

There’s still time to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! Link to the online store and graphics are in our bio. Help us spread the word. If a friend or colleague isn’t on social media, just send us their email via direct message and we’ll send them all the details!

There’s still time to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! 💙💛 Link to the online store and graphics are in our bio.

Help us spread the word 📣 If a friend or colleague isn’t on social media, just send us their email via direct message and we’ll send them all the details!

Honoring a Global Public Health Leader: Professor Art Reingold. Join us in honoring the remarkable career of Professor Art Reingold. Art Reingold has shaped generations of public health leaders, with a transformative impact on global health. We're putting together a special memory book to thank him and honor his legacy. Join the Tribute: Commemorative T-Shirt for Art! 1. Buy a T-shirt Online store open until August 22nd! Option 1: "I, Too, Was Art's Student" Link to online store : https://www.customink.com/g/rgc0-00cz-cs3n Link to graphic: https://tinyurl.com/mrna8rf9 Option 2: "I, Too, Was Trained by Art's Student" Link to online store : https://www.customink.com/g/rgc0-00cz-cs7j Link to graphic: https://tinyurl.com/2hbrc7ac 2. Share a Photo Take a photo wearing your t-shirt—or holding his graphic—and snap a picture! 3. Be Part of the Legacy Book Submit your photo and testimony by Sept 30th to be included in a legacy book we're creating for Art!

Honoring a Global Public Health Leader: Professor Art Reingold. Join the Tribute! 🎉

1. Buy a T-shirt 👕
Online store open until August 22! Links in Bio 🔗

2. Share a Photo 📸

3. Be Part of the Legacy Book 📖

📍Submit photos & testimonies to the google form in our bio by Sept 30!

Mark your calendars: CTML graduate student researchers Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), held August 2–7 in Nashville, Tennessee. Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted. If you’re attending JSM, don’t miss their sessions—come show your support!

CTML GSRs Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM). Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted.
If you’re attending JSM—come show your support!

CTML Visiting Student Researcher alum Carlos Garcia Meixide and CTML co-director Mark van der Laan present a new approach to causal inference. The new paper challenges the traditional assumption-based identification to what can be learned directly from observed data using implied interventions. By leveraging instrumental variable structure and Highly Adaptive Lasso (Hal), the authors propose a transparent G-computation formula that identifies causal effects without needing to specify everything up front.

CTML VSR alum Carlos Meixide and CTML co-director Mark van der Laan present a new approach to causal inference. The new paper challenges the traditional assumption-based identification to what can be learned directly from observed data using implied interventions. Link in bio! 🔗