CTML - Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference

The next talk in our CTML Seminar Series is coming up on October 15th! Join us for an engaging discussion led by Michael Rosenblum, Ph.D.(link is external), Professor of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, on "Methodological Problems in Every Black-Box Study of Forensic Firearm Comparisons." This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

Reviews conducted by the National Academy of Sciences (2009) and the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) concluded that the field of forensic firearm comparisons has not been demonstrated to be scientifically valid. Scientific validity requires adequately designed studies of firearm examiner performance in terms of accuracy, repeatability, and reproducibility. Researchers have performed “black-box” studies with the goal of estimating these performance measures. As statisticians with expertise in experimental design, we conducted a literature search of such studies to date and then evaluated the designand statistical analysis methods used in each study. Our conclusion is that all studies in our literature search have methodological flaws that are so grave that they render the studies invalid, that is, incapable of establishing scientific validity of the field of firearms examination. Notably, error rates among firearms examiners, both collectively and individually, remain unknown. Therefore, statements about the common origin of bullets or cartridge cases that are based on examination of “individual” characteristics do not have a scientific basis. We provide some recommendations for the design and analysis of future studies.

The next talk in our CTML Seminar Series is coming up on Oct 15! Join us for an engaging discussion led by Michael Rosenblum, Prof. of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

T-shirt only: We’re reopening Professor Art Reingold’s commemorative t-shirt store for a limited time! Celebrate his remarkable career and legacy with an exclusive t-shirt designed just for this occasion. Link in bio to order! The store will close by October 25th.

T-shirt only: We’re reopening Professor Art Reingold’s commemorative t-shirt store for a limited time! 🎉

Celebrate his remarkable career and legacy with an exclusive t-shirt designed just for this occasion.

📦 Link in bio to order!
📅 The store will close by October 25th.

Don't miss the next session of the CTML Seminar Series on October 1st, where Wenxin Zhang will discuss "Efficient Statistical Estimation for Sequential Adaptive Experiments with Implications for Adaptive Designs." This talk will take place from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation based on accumulating data. At the end of adaptive experiments, it is often desirable to answer various causal questions based on the observed data. However, the adaptive nature of such experiments and the resulting dependence among observations pose significant challenges for providing statistical inference of causal estimands. Building upon the Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) literature that has provided valid statistical inference tailored to adaptive experimental settings, I will discuss our recent advance in efficient statistical inference under relaxed assumptions of adaptive experiments, with their implications for improving adaptive designs.

Don't miss the next session of the CTML Seminar Series on October 1st, where Wenxin Zhang will discuss "Efficient Statistical Estimation for Sequential Adaptive Experiments with Implications for Adaptive Designs." This talk will take place from 12-1 PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

📢 Don’t miss this session today at the ASA Biopharmaceutical Section RISW 2025!

CTML Faculty Mark van der Laan, will be presenting:
“The Causal Roadmap and Adaptive TMLE for ECT-Hybrid Designs”

📅 Sept 25
🕐 1:15PM – 2:30PM(EDT)

Be sure to add this to your agenda if you’re attending the conference!

Thank you to our outstanding speakers & panelists for sharing their expertise at this year’s Fall Visit for the Joint Initiative for Causal Inference (JICI)!

A special note of appreciation goes to CTML Leads, Maya Petersen and Mark van der Laan, for their leadership in making this event a success.

There’s still time to contribute to Professor Art Reingold’s legacy book!

📝 Please keep testimonials to 100 words or less.
📸 You may share a photo in your commemorative t-shirt, holding his graphic, or with Art.
📬 Submissions due by Sept 30: forms.gle/LY4T126cPjdq...

We are excited to announce CTML faculty, students and staff will lead roundtable discussions at the upcoming RISW (Regulatory Industry Statistic Workshop) at the ASA (American Statistical Association) conference in Rockville, Maryland! Date: September 25, 2025 Time: 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM (EDT)

We are excited to announce CTML faculty, students and staff will lead roundtable discussions at the upcoming RISW (Regulatory Industry Statistic Workshop) at the ASA (American Statistical Association) conference in Rockville, Maryland!

📌 Date: September 25, 2025
📌 Time: 11:45 AM – 1:00 PM (EDT)

Mark your calendars for September 17th! The CTML Seminar Series explores “Causal Inference via Electronic Health Record Data.” This exciting talk will be led by CTML's Postdoc Zachary Butzin-Dozier from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

📖 The Legacy of Art
Help honor Professor Art Reingold with a legacy book of memories.
📸 Share a photo with Art, in your t-shirt, or with his graphic + 📝 a testimonial by Sept 30 to this link: forms.gle/LY4T126cPjdq...

Every submission adds to the story of Art’s impactful career!

The Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference (CTML) Seminar Series continues on September 10th! Join us for an exciting talk on "Machine Learning, Causal Queueing, and SiMLQ for Data Driven Simulation." Opher Baron, Professor of Operations Management at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, will be presenting joint work with Zhenghang Xu, a fifth-year PhD candidate in Operations Management and Statistics. This talk will take place from 12:00PM-1:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

The objective of this talk is to expose researchers to the vast possibilities of using modern machinery and data for implementing effective management analytics for queueing processes. Such process are ubiquitous in modern economies, e.g., customers waiting to service, inventory waiting for processing/transportation, payments and invoices waiting to be generated/cleared, computing tasks waiting for resources. I will thus discuss recent developments in queueing analysis based on several papers. We will also see a demo of www.SiMLQ.com that demonstrates how to take this theory to practice.

The CTML Seminar Series continues on Sept 10! Join us for an exciting talk on "Machine Learning, Causal Queueing, and SiMLQ for Data Driven Simulation." Opher Baron will be presenting joint work with Zhenghang Xu. This talk will take place from 12PM-1PM at BWW, 5th Fl, Rm 5401.

Join us on September 3rd to kick off our Fall 2025 CTML Seminar Series! Adam Yala, Assistant Professor in Computational Precision Health, Statistics, and Computer Science (EECS), will start our series with his talk "AI for Personalized Cancer Care." This talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401. Early detection significantly improves outcomes across many cancers, motivating major investments in population-wide screening programs, such as low-dose CT for lung cancer. To make screening more effective, we must simultaneously improve early detection for patients who will develop cancer while minimizing the harms of over screening. Advancing this Pareto frontier requires progress across three fronts: (1) accurately predicting patient outcomes from all available data, (2) designing intervention strategies tailored to risk, and (3) evaluating and translating these strategies into clinical practice. In this talk, I will present ongoing work across all three areas, driven by the goal of using every available bit of patient data to personalize care.

Join us on Sept 3rd to kick off our Fall 2025 CTML Seminar Series! Adam Yala, Assistant Prof. in Computational Precision Health, Statistics, and Computer Science (EECS), will start our series with his talk "AI for Personalized Cancer Care." This talk will take place at 12PM at BWW, 5th Fl, Rm 5401.

CTML Postdoc Marie-Laure Charpignon will be presenting during the poster session at the upcoming ISCB Conference on Wednesday, August 27. If you are attending ISCB, be sure to stop by the session and show your support!

CTML Postdoc Marie-Laure Charpignon will be presenting during the poster session at the upcoming ISCB Conference on Wednesday, August 27. If you are attending ISCB, be sure to stop by the session and show your support! 🎉

Final Day to Order 🎉 Join us in celebrating Professor Art Reingold’s remarkable career and legacy—our commemorative t-shirt store closes today. Secure your shirt now and take part in this special tribute!

Final Week to Order! 🎉 Don’t miss your chance to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! Our t-shirt store closes this Friday, Aug 22—order yours today & join in celebrating his incredible career and impact! Links to online store, graphics and google form for testimony submissions in our bio 🔗

Stay Connected with CTML! From cutting-edge publications and upcoming events to exciting achievements in our community, our newsletter keeps you in the loop. Subscribe today! Scan QR code or click the link in our bio to join.

Stay Connected with CTML! From cutting-edge publications and upcoming events to exciting achievements in our community, our newsletter keeps you in the loop.

📬 Subscribe today! Scan QR code or click the link in our bio to join.

There’s still time to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! Link to the online store and graphics are in our bio. Help us spread the word. If a friend or colleague isn’t on social media, just send us their email via direct message and we’ll send them all the details!

There’s still time to be part of the tribute to Prof. Art Reingold! 💙💛 Link to the online store and graphics are in our bio.

Help us spread the word 📣 If a friend or colleague isn’t on social media, just send us their email via direct message and we’ll send them all the details!

Honoring a Global Public Health Leader: Professor Art Reingold. Join us in honoring the remarkable career of Professor Art Reingold. Art Reingold has shaped generations of public health leaders, with a transformative impact on global health. We're putting together a special memory book to thank him and honor his legacy. Join the Tribute: Commemorative T-Shirt for Art! 1. Buy a T-shirt Online store open until August 22nd! Option 1: "I, Too, Was Art's Student" Link to online store : https://www.customink.com/g/rgc0-00cz-cs3n Link to graphic: https://tinyurl.com/mrna8rf9 Option 2: "I, Too, Was Trained by Art's Student" Link to online store : https://www.customink.com/g/rgc0-00cz-cs7j Link to graphic: https://tinyurl.com/2hbrc7ac 2. Share a Photo Take a photo wearing your t-shirt—or holding his graphic—and snap a picture! 3. Be Part of the Legacy Book Submit your photo and testimony by Sept 30th to be included in a legacy book we're creating for Art!

Honoring a Global Public Health Leader: Professor Art Reingold. Join the Tribute! 🎉

1. Buy a T-shirt 👕
Online store open until August 22! Links in Bio 🔗

2. Share a Photo 📸

3. Be Part of the Legacy Book 📖

📍Submit photos & testimonies to the google form in our bio by Sept 30!

Mark your calendars: CTML graduate student researchers Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), held August 2–7 in Nashville, Tennessee. Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted. If you’re attending JSM, don’t miss their sessions—come show your support!

CTML GSRs Wenxin Zhang, Kaiwen Hou, and Alissa Gordon will be presenting their work next week at the 2025 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM). Innovations in causal inference, adaptive study design, and statistical methodology will be highlighted.
If you’re attending JSM—come show your support!

CTML Visiting Student Researcher alum Carlos Garcia Meixide and CTML co-director Mark van der Laan present a new approach to causal inference. The new paper challenges the traditional assumption-based identification to what can be learned directly from observed data using implied interventions. By leveraging instrumental variable structure and Highly Adaptive Lasso (Hal), the authors propose a transparent G-computation formula that identifies causal effects without needing to specify everything up front.

CTML VSR alum Carlos Meixide and CTML co-director Mark van der Laan present a new approach to causal inference. The new paper challenges the traditional assumption-based identification to what can be learned directly from observed data using implied interventions. Link in bio! 🔗

Utilizing mediation analysis methods developed by CTML, a recent study by the University of Edinburgh in EMBO Molecular Medicine uncovered strong biological signatures linked to ME/CFS (Chronic Fatigue Syndrome).

Utilizing mediation analysis methods developed by #CTML, a recent study by the #UniversityofEdinburgh in #EMBOMolecularMedicine uncovered strong biological signatures linked to ME/CFS (Chronic Fatigue Syndrome).

Click the link here or scan the QR code below! 👉 www.embopress.org/doi/full/10....

CTML Faculty Laura Balzer was honored to present her talk, “Machine Learning in Randomized Trials? We Can & We Should!” at the Statistical Issues in Clinical Trials conference, hosted by the University of Pennsylvania on April 7th. This annual conference addresses active areas of biostatistical research, including important conversations on how to effectively and validly implement covariate adjustment to improve statistical power in randomized trials. Speakers covered topics of broad relevance—such as covariate adjustment in group-sequential and re-randomization designs, complexities of adjustment in the face of missing covariate data, machine learning for covariate selection, and the role of covariate adjustment in the drug and device approval process.

CTML Faculty Laura Balzer presented her talk at the Statistical Issues in Clinical Trials conference. This conference addresses areas of biostatistical research, including conversations on how to effectively & validly implement covariate adjustment to improve statistical power in randomized trials.

Great synergy at Global Health Equity Initiative visit with Gilead Sciences on May 13!

Co-moderated by Gilead's Anand Chokkalingam & UCB's Art Reingold, CTML's Dr. Maya Petersen spoke during “Optimizing Industry-Academic Partnerships to Advance Global Public Health” panel.

Thank you to all the incredible presenters who made the Biostatistics Research Showcase such a success! We were thrilled to feature 10 lightning talks and 9 poster presentations. A heartfelt thank you to all the students, faculty, and staff who attended and supported the event.
#CTML #ucberkeley

CTML Graduate Student Researchers Kaiwen Hou, Wenxin Zhang, Kaitlyn Lee, and Sky Qiu will present their research at the 2025 American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC), taking place in Detroit, Michigan, from May 13 to 16. Kaiwen Hou will lead a short course and present a poster. Wenxin Zhang and Kaitlyn Lee will each give a lightning talk and present a poster. Sky Qiu will also present a poster, contributing to the wide range of CTML research being shared.

CTML Graduate Student Researchers Kaiwen Hou, Wenxin Zhang, Kaitlyn Lee, and Sky Qiu will present their research at the 2025 American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC), taking place in Detroit, Michigan, from May 13 to 16.
#BerkeleyCTML #ACIC2025

Stay for the Biostatistics Poster Presentations on Friday, May 2, 2024, from 3:00–4:00 PM at Berkeley Way West (Room 1102)! Explore innovative research in statistical methodology and health applications from our biostatistics community. All are welcome.

#UCBerkeley #CTML

Join us for the Lightning Talks session at the Biostatistics Research Showcase this Friday, May 2nd from 2:00–3:00 PM at Berkeley Way West (Room 1104)! Come hear rapid-fire presentations from biostatistics researchers on cutting-edge methods in causal inference, machine learning, and public health applications. Open to the biostatistics community. For accessibility accommodations, contact cdasilva@berkeley.edu.

Join us for the Lightning Talks session at the Biostatistics Research Showcase this Friday, May 2nd from 2:00–3:00 PM at Berkeley Way West (Room 1104)! Open to the biostatistics community. For accessibility accommodations, contact cdasilva@berkeley.edu.
#BerkeleyCTML

CTML Graduate Student Researchers Featured at the April 29th Frontiers in Computational Health Conference! Be sure to check out exciting poster presentations by CTML GSRs Sylvia Cheng, Nolan Gunter, Kaiwen Hou, Kaitlyn Lee, and Wenxin Zhang. Their research spans causal inference, machine learning, and statistical methods—driving innovation in precision health.

📣 CTML Graduate Student Researchers Featured at the April 29th Frontiers in Computational Health Conference!

Be sure to check out their exciting poster presentations! Their research spans causal inference, machine learning, and statistical methods—driving innovation in precision health.💡📈

Come and be part of our next seminar discussion on April 30th! Carlos García Meixide, CTML's Visiting Student Researcher, will present his talk on "Causal Inference Via Proxy Interventions." The talk will take place at 12 PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401.

#UCBerkeley #CTML #Berkeley

Come join us for our next talk in our seminar series on April 23rd. Joy Nakato, CTML GSR will present her talk at 12 PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5101 (Caravan Room).

Please note the room change this week.

A growing body of epidemiologic research is examining the health effects of social policies. In this area, researchers face multiple challenges to causal inference, because policies are nuanced and rarely randomized, effects are often imprecisely estimated, and distinct subsets of population are affected differently. In this talk, I will discuss a framework for thinking about these challenges, and address two of them in depth: heterogeneity in the effects of policies across population subgroups and treatment-confounder feedback. For each challenge, I will describe the problem, characterize its magnitude, and discuss practical solutions.

On April 16 our CTML Seminar Series welcomes Ellie Matthay, Assistant Professor of Population Health at NYU Grossman School of Medicine. This exciting talk will take place at 12:00PM at Berkeley Way West, 5th Floor, Room 5401. Speaker will be presenting remotely.*