Rainbow Murray

"‘Whatever It Takes?’ The Policy Implications of Supporting Ukraine".

What does supporting Ukraine mean in practice?

What are the implications for national security, tax policy, EU relations, energy security & more?

28 Oct 12:00 at @mileendinstitute.bsky.social.
us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The co-optation of the themes of the far-right by mainstream parties, in the Netherlands as elsewhere, only serves to normalise the far-right's agenda and strengthen far-right parties electorally. You cannot defeat the far-right by becoming more like them.

Will the proposed Trump-Putin summit in Budapest do any good? - Monocle As reports emerge of a “shouting match” between Zelensky and Trump during their latest meeting, we discuss what lies ahead...

Latest Daily on Monocle Radio. @rainbowmurray.bsky.social and Nik Gowing on the day's stuff, plus regular panellist Julie Norman on the new book she has co-written on Gaza. monocle.com/radio/shows/...

Labour sheds support from impatient Britons Research shows party losing voters who want results now, with women more likely to prioritise short-term gains

Great to speak to @greenmirandahere.bsky.social for today's FT Inside Politics about the latest finding from our politics of (im)patience project, w/ @karlpike.bsky.social and @philipjcowley.bsky.social.

www.ft.com/content/e984...

Voters' voices are being shut out of British politics. Your Party has a radical plan to change that | Jeremy Corbyn At our conference in November we will use a jury service-type model to allow members to discuss and decide policy, strategy and even the name of our party, says Your Party co-founder Jeremy Corbyn

If you think this proposed organisational model will work (or, indeed, last very long in reality rather than appearance), then you might want to google 'Robert Michels and "iron law of oligarchy"'.

In sum: French politics is in a real mess. Asking the outgoing PM to return to the job he just quit is not going to fix the mess. Casual spectators can enjoy the plot-twists 🍿👀, Brits can compare the longevity of French PMs to 🥬, but for many in France the situation is actually one of despair 😞 /end

Understandably the Left are very peeved. They hoped they might get one of their own as the next PM. They did not. They hoped they could overturn the pension reform. They cannot. No surprise then that some have threatened to no-confidence Lecornu immediately, while others refuse to rule it out 12/

What the Left really want it to overturn the bitterly opposed pension reform from 2023 that raised the retirement age to 64. There were hints this week that pensions were back on the table - turns out Macron is not willing to scrap the reform, only to delay it until after the next election 11/

Lecornu has offered meaningful parliamentary input into the budget & promised not to use constitutional clause 49.3 to force the budget through without a vote. He has also offered to soften the targets for deficit reduction, which would mean less austerity but more debt. Will it be enough? 10/

Mainstream parties don't need to agree on everything but they do need to find enough common ground to pass a budget. Urgently. Their failure to do so previously has left a string of ousted prime ministers in its wake. What can Lecornu do to succeed where all others have failed? 9/

So no surprise that the far-right & far-left are calling for elections & promising to vote down the government before its members are even announced. & Macron is relying once again on fear of the extremes to try & force everyone else to fall in line behind him. It's become his signature move 8/

But what this week of discussions HAS demonstrated is that there is, in fact, one thing uniting all moderate parties - the fear of another snap election. Because polls suggest the far-right would win & the moderates could all lose seats. They don't want that. & the extremist parties want it a lot 7/

Will the new government be yet another replica of its failed predecessors? Tbc. One person who's clearly out is Bruno Le Maire, whose controversial return to the previous government precipitated its collapse. Lecornu has also said the government must be free of those with presidential ambitions 6/

"Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you" 5/

Lecornu himself is a close ally of Macron, and many see this as Macron's desperate bid to hold onto power. But Macron also has the challenge of uniting moderate left & right when neither side wants to work with the other, especially 18 months from the next presidential election 4/

While speculation was rife about who would succeed Lecornu as prime minister, it seemed clear that Lecornu did not want the job back. There was much speculation about a PM from the left, or maybe the centrist Jean-Louis Borloo. But what did we get after all that? Lecornu again. 3/

On Monday morning, Lecornu surprised everyone by resigning, taking the new govt down with him. Then he was asked by Macron to engage in intense negotiations with (most) other parties to find a way out of the impasse. On Weds night he went on tv saying his mission was complete 2/

There's a French saying that perfectly captures this week in French politics: "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose" (the more things change, the more they stay the same). On Sunday night, PM Lecornu appointed a government that was almost identical to the govt that had fallen weeks earlier 1/

I'll be on @france24.com (in English) at 21h30 UK time to laugh hysterically at the fact that, after nearly five days of deliberations, false promises and calls for compromise, Macron has nominated as the new French PM... the same guy who resigned on Monday 🤣🤣😦

And the person he nominated to replace him in the Defence portfolio was a key bone of contention - Bruno le Maire, finance minister 2017-24, whose nomination was bitterly opposed by the right-wing Republicans and contributed to the downfall of the government almost as soon as it had been nominated

You have to feel a bit sorry for all those nominated to the French government last night who went to bed excited to start their new jobs, only to wake up the next morning to find their posts revoked. A week is a long time in politics but they didn't even get one day

But another 18 months of political turmoil, coming on the back of years of crisis, will take a heavy toil on the beleaguered French economy, which is already struggling with high debt. Investors don't like uncertainty and France is a risky bet right now. 😕

The only other options are for Macron to resign, which he has refused to do, or else lurch from one crisis to the next till presidential election in 18 months' time. Most parties refusing to compromise now because they are already strategising for that election.

An alternative option is to call another general election - but that is unlikely to resolve the crisis & the far-right would likely make further gains. The crisis caused by a hung parliament in 2022 was only exacerbated by the snap election in 2024; risk that things could again go from bad to worse

Macron keeps appointing PMs from the centre/right, with no success. If he tries again he'll likely fail again. Appointing from the left is risky tho as the right won't work with the moderate left, no-one will work with the hard left & the moderate left don't have the numbers without the others

The level of instability in French politics is unprecedented & even worse than the UK post-Brexit (Lecornu's 26 days in office is barely half what the ill-fated Liz Truss could muster). A hung parliament split between multiple groups who refuse to work together is a recipe for disaster

Last night, France's new prime minister, Sebatien Lecornu, announced his new govt, with a line-up v similar to the preceding govts. Other parties protested. This morning Lecornu resigned. He'd only been in office a few weeks, France's 5th PM in <2 yrs. No side has a majority & no-one will compromise

My contribution to this issue calls for Labour to counter the growing illiberalism in British politics.

Our research makes it clear: by capitulating to the right, Labour is driving voters to Reform UK | Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte Mimicking Farage on immigration is senseless. Labour voters feel betrayed; anti-immigration voters see through the ruse, say academics Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

For the Guardian, @turnbulldugarte.com and I discuss our research that clearly shows one thing: Labour's anti-immigration strategy will only strengthen Reform and weaken its own electoral prospects. It won't win voters back but ultimately normalizes the far right

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

It would be helpful if you could complement that post about people's (erroneous) beliefs about illegal immigration with another stating the actual correct percentage, both to avoid further fuelling misperceptions and to demonstrate the gulf between beliefs and reality