James Prentice

Enjoyed selling copies of my book at the makers fair this weekend.

🚨Data Update 🚨

We are pleased to release an updated version of the 2024 BES Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey dataset (v1.0.1) that includes improved versions of two important survey weights (wt_demog and wt_vote) based on new estimates of the VEP.

www.britishelectionstudy.com/2024-general...

An infographic highlighting that The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters according to the British Election Study - Wave 30 (2025). It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. It highlights the fragmentation of British politics nicely. It also shows Labour's most optimal strategy may be to go after the larger group of disillusioned left-liberal voters.

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters, according to the British Election Study. It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. Full report here: lnkd.in/eabH8EUC

Out of all 2024 Labour voters, only those lost to Reform mostly perceive migration as a negative. Those lost to the Greens and Lib-Dems more often view it as a positive or are indifferent. Labour conference could be used to change tone on migration debate as many of its base would support this.

I'm pleased with the two books I bought today. Judith Dench is for book group. @jamespren.bsky.social author of Fixing Hastings and Rye, was busy at #hastingsbookfest hosted by the #ObserverBuilding
His insight and policy prescriptions for #Hastings and #Rye will be valuable to our community.

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters according to the British Election Study - Wave 30 (2025). It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. It highlights the fragmentation of British politics nicely.

Fixing Hastings’ Housing crisis – a huge challenge. Hastings Borough Council (HBC) has recently set out its desire to formulate a housing strategy that will address Hastings’ housing crisis. With an experienced and knowledgeable team forming to provide...

A short article I wrote on the housing crisis in Hastings & St Leonards. It goes through the latest data available (mostly obtained from HBC) and outlines the scale of the challenge the council faces.

www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/fixing-...

The Conservative vote splintered across multiple parties in the last election, with it mostly going to Reform. Labour's vote this parliament is fragmenting but mostly in the other direction (with the Lib-Dems and the Greens being the main beneficiaries).

It is possible their defeat happens from the bottom up, if they keep losing seats to reform in local elections more members may jump.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 30% (-1)
LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 18% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 9% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 11-13 Jun.
Changes w/ 28-30 May.

The Leave vs Remain divide in the UK continued to divide the voters perceptions of the political parties across the last parliament. In this case, how well Labour would run the NHS if in government.

Losing faith and giving up: voter turn out in the 2024 general election - UK in a changing Europe James Prentice analyses the reasons behind the record low level of voter turn out in the 2024 general election.

ukandeu.ac.uk/losing-faith...

An article I wrote in declining turnout was published by UK in a Changing Europe. Tap the link to read.

Ahead of the government's Spending Review on Wednesday, the cost of living still comes top of British people's list of problems - both facing the country and them and their families.

At 23% Labour are just ahead of the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20% on best to deal with the issue.

Thanks for publishing @ukandeu.bsky.social

Losing faith and giving up: voter turn out in the 2024 general election - UK in a changing Europe James Prentice analyses the reasons behind the record low level of voter turn out in the 2024 general election.

"Turnout fell at the 2024 election. Across all constituencies, it declined by 7.6%, bringing it to a historic low of less than 65%."

✍️ @jamespren.bsky.social analyses the reasons behind the record low level of voter turn out in the 2024 general election

ukandeu.ac.uk/losing-faith...

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

Next week’s spending review must pass the ‘living standards test’, by ensuring key departments can raise incomes and reduce living costs.

Since the financial crisis, the rate of Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) growth has halved. 🧵

Better off | Fabian Society Fabian Society

Read Better off: A plan to improve living standards in one parliament, supported by @financialfairness.bsky.social 👇

Authored by:

@lukeraikes.bsky.social, @andrewharrop.bsky.social, @eloisesacares.bsky.social and @sasjkia.bsky.social

fabians.org.uk/publication/...

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨

The last parliament saw living standards decline for the first time since records began.

Today we show how this government can do better than the last.

Labour leaflet from 1951 c/o @markpackuk.bsky.social

No GP wants this, name another NHS service providing 20% more with 20% less funding, that gets as much flack & as little support

This is the problem

1/9 people waiting for hospital treatment
500k more people long term sick
2300 patients per GP - 500 more than 2016
20% less £

Only 1% of disadvantaged students in Hastings meet the higher standards in primary school testing, compared to 10+% across England. Needless to say that education outcomes for disadvantaged pupils in Hastings is generally poor. Early years inequality effects in education never ceases to amaze me.

The Conservatives lost their pro-Brexit coalition partly due to not being trusted to manage migration flows. Their decline sped up after the rise in small boat crossings and the decline in inflation. Labour doing poorly on the immigration issue could lose them leave voters they gained in 2024.

Flows of support for parties since the election, via @markpack open.substack.com/pub/theweeki...

It is a tricky one, if they went the other way on immigration they would lose voters to reform, although probably not as much.

The pro-Brexit base the Conservatives secured in 2019 disintegrated across the last parliament. This shows just how difficult parties are finding to keep their support bases in tact in the UK. Therefore, Labour not retaining its 2024 base is a continuation of a longer term trend.

Thank you for your interest. I thought about what to say alot. Challenging times re reforms rise

Voter movements visualised to May 2025

High Stakes | Fabian Society Fabian Society

Something I wrote about Labour's electoral strategy in the wake of the 2025 local election result was published by the @thefabians.bsky.social . I argue that Labour need to rethink its approach as the electoral landscape changes. #Reform #Labour #politics #election #UK #stratergy #analysis

People who voted in the the 2019 general election but chose not to participate in 2024 more often disapproved of all the party leaders. This displays a deep sense of apathy within the entire political system amongst those not voting. #voting #trust #politics #rating #party #Labour #Conservative

People who voted in the 2019 UK general election but did not vote in 2024 more often felt No Party performed on the issues they most cared about (the economy and immigration). A lack of faith in government being able to deliver could be decreasing turnout. #Trust #Vote #politics #tunrout #graph