Richard Allan

Nothing every changes but the climate When I became a climate scientist nearly 22 years ago, I started accumulating books on the subject. One of the first was called something1 like “Global Warming: Apocalypse or Hot Air?” …

Nothing ever changes but the climate

Some initial notes on the DOE Critical Review of Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the US Climate

And a 🧵 of other responses I'm aware of (let me know if you know of others)

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/08/01/n...

1/n

Also I’m not sure about their use of the word “sputtering”! 😄

True for the drying region I guess while the total non frozen component in all regions (left plus right bar) is much smaller than the GIC

Nice to see @metoffice.gov.uk and BBC making friends again!

Figure 4 of Chandanpurkar showing increasing sea level rise from terrestrial water storage decline

Figure 1 of Rodell et al showing abrupt drop of non frozen terrestrial water storage in 2015 and stable or rising since

This builds on earlier studies identifying continental drying. Although contribution to sea level from terrestrial water storage decline ramps up (their Fig 4A) this may be dominated by melting of ice since contribution from liquid water is stable since 2015 (Rodell Fig1): doi.org/10.1007/s107...

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise Drying continents, extreme drought, and groundwater depletion are shrinking water availability and increasing sea level rise.

Unprecedented continental drying since 2002 based on satellite data and dominated by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European #drought & groundwater depletion: doi.org/10.1126/scia...
Consistent with earlier work: doi.org/10.1007/s107...

CO2 levels and annuakl increases from the NOAA Mauna Loa observatory

Carbon uptake diminished in 2024 as decomposition in hot, wet conditions sped up, based on a preprint by Jiang et al. (www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-6...), leading to record annual growth rates in atmospheric CO2 as seen in the @climate.noaa.gov data: www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/co...

Residents try to extinguish the blazes in Omodos village, Cyprus, during a massive wildfire on the southern side of the east Mediterranean island nation’s Troodos mountain range, Thursday, July 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social 25th July 2025:
🌧️ #floods across Pakistan, China, South Korea
🔥 #wildfires in Greece, Cyprus, Turkey
🥀 #drought over Iran
⛈️ storms hit Ethiopia, France, Romania, Thailand, Vietnam
🌀 typhoon Co-may hits Philippines
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

Meteorology & Climate online courses @uniofreading.bsky.social suitable for professional meteorologists, consultants, STEM students, graduates & academics seeking to improve their range of skills and knowledge. Details & applications:
www.reading.ac.uk/meteorology/...

How does the UK summer so far compare to the extreme hot, dry summer of 1976? By Dr Laura Baker   Senior NCAS Scientist in the Department of Meteorology As we come to the end of the third heatwave of 2025, and a third English water board has announced a hosepipe ban, more an…

As the hosepipe ban kicks in over parts of Reading we look at how this summer so far compares to the UK’s infamous hot, dry summer of 1976 in this week’s @unirdg-met.bsky.social blog:
blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...

Smoke from the wildfires blanketed the Toronto skyline on Monday, where the air quality was among the lowest in the world [Getty Images]

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social 18 Jul 2025:
🔥 #wildfires Canada, USA, Spain
🌧️ #floods & landslides China, Nepal, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, USA, Ecuador, Spain, Sudan
🌪️ tornado New Zealand
⚡ lightning eastern USA
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

UK air quality is improving but pollution targets are still being breached – new study Researchers have analysed UK-wide trends for three major pollutants.

Researchers from @unirdg-met.bsky.social have analysed UK-wide trends for three major pollutants.
theconversation.com/uk-air-quali...

Figure 3 of Samset et al evidence of warming from pollution decline

Clean up of particle pollution across East Asia caused more sunlight to reach the oceans as clouds became less reflective, combining with rising greenhouse gases to accelerate in warming of climate since around 2010:
doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Rainfall in June 2025, wet in west, dry in east of UK

River flows in June 2025 low in east, higher in west of UK

Variable groundwater levels across UK in June 2025

Dry soils over much of UK in June 2025 but wetter in Wales and north west UK

Unsettled start to June 2025 in UK then heatwaves with dry conditions in east & low river flows, very dry soils, declining groundwater/reservoir levels with drought in northern England and heightened risk of drought elsewhere: nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/defaul...

Fig. 4 of Steenman et al (2025) shoing increase in compound drought then heavy rain compound events over Europe

Risk of drought ending with once in a year heavy precipitation event doubles over Europe by mid centrury based on regional modelling, highlighting need to adapt to more of these compound extremes: doi.org/10.1038/s416...

No, not you Skegness

Damaged vehicles are seen after severe monsoon rains flooded the Bhotekoshi River and swept away a key bridge connecting the country with China at Rasuwagadi,120 kilometers (75 miles) north of the capital, Kathmandu, Nepal, Wednesday, July, 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Sujan Gurung)

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social 11th Jul 2025:
🌧️ floods China, Nepal, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Indonesia, Colombia, Ecuador, USA, Nigeria
🌀 tropical cyclone DANAS China/Taiwan
🔥 wildfire France, Spain, Syria
⛈️ storms Italy, Romania, USA
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

Decadal changes in atmospheric circulation detected in cloud motion vectors - Nature Analysis of cloud motion vectors from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer over the past two decades indicates an acceleration and poleward shift of atmospheric circulation, and comparison with E...

Strengthening global atmospheric circulation across latitudes since 2000 based on mid-latitude upper tropospheric cloud motion speed increases (up to 4 m/s/decade in southern hemisphere) from MISR satellite data with poleward movement of northern tropics & both polar fronts:
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Freshening & stratification of Southern Ocean since the 1980s reversed around 2015 and has coincided with subsequent dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice coverage: doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

There have been claims that NOAA/NWS did not foresee catastrophic TX floods--but that's simply not true. This was undoubtedly an extreme event, but messaging rapidly escalated beginning ~12 hrs prior. Flood Watch mid PM, "heads up" outlook late PM, flash flood warnings ~1am.

Global map showing 2 metre temperature anomalies of -10C over parts of South America and +10C over parts of Europe on 1 July from climatereanalyzer.org

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social 4th July 2025
❄️Coldwave grips Argentina, Chile & Uruguay
🌡️Heatwave across Europe & Japan
🔥Wildfires France, Greece, Spain, Turkey & USA
🌧️Floods/Landslides Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, India, Nepal, France & Nigeria
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation - Nature A climate-trade-off risk curve derived from uncertainties in the radiative-forcing components indicates that focusing on reducing contrails or nitrogen oxide emissions is more effective than redu...

Surprisingly, when accounting for uncertainties in aviation's climate change effects, reducing contrails or nitrogen oxide emissions is more effective than reducing CO2 emissions (though tackling the rapid growth in aviation is presumably most effective): doi.org/10.1038/s415...

People walk with their belongings at a flood-affected area in Congjiang, in southwestern China's Guizhou province [China Out/AFP via Al Jazeera]

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social
🌧️floods/landslides Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, China, Pakistan, India, Indonesia
🔥wildfires Italy, Croatia, Greece
🌩️storms France
🌀Hurricane Erick Mexico
❄️Coldwave Uruguay
🌡️🌩️🔥🌪️heatwave/storms/tornado/wildfire USA
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

Episode 146: Liz Allan and Jolene Cook, OBE - Turning Science into Global Climate Action | Full Circle Continuous Improvement In this episode, Liz Allan speaks to Jolene Cook, OBE, Head of International Climate Science and UK IPCC Focal Point at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.

Immensely proud to know this talented individual: Jolene Cook OBE talks about her vital role as Head of International Climate Science and UK IPCC Focal Point at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero:
fullcircleci.co.uk/episode-146-...

Ancient trees are shipped to the UK, then burned – using billions in ‘green’ subsidies. Stop this madness now | Dale Vince The evidence against the Drax power station is damning, yet the government wants to continue its massive public funding, says campaigner Dale Vince

Tree-burning #Drax power station is UK’s largest single source of CO₂ emissions—and a major air polluter.

Yet ludicrously, UK Gov pretends its emissions are zero.

Reports on its impact on primary forests have been covered up.

Ministers are being played. Again.

Great article by @dalevince.com

Severe Tropical Storm Wutip making landfall over Guangdong. Credit: GEO-KOMPSAT 2A, RAMMB/CIRA, The Watchers. Acquired at 08:30 UTC on June 14, 2025.

Global #climate hazards @ukhsa.bsky.social 20th Jun 2025:
🌀storms China, Vietnam, Armenia, Austria, Cameroon, Mexico
⛈️ #floods & landslides Brazil, Colombia, USA, DR Congo, South Africa, India, Indonesia
🌡️ #heatwave Japan
🥀 #drought Syria
🔥 #wildfire New Mexico
www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/ex...

Figure 1 of Tseliousdis et al. (2025) showing satellite derived cloud cover and regions of strong sunlight reflection by clouds

Contraction of midlatitude & tropical storm regimes with warming could explain the 21st century increase in Earth's absorption of sunlight and overall heating rate: doi.org/10.1029/2025...

Figure 4b of England et al. (2025) showing how weaker winds and reduced cloud focused more of the sun's heat into a shallower upper ocean layer

Figure 1 of England et al. (2025) showing record North Atlantic warming in mid-2023

Record warming in east then west North Atlantic during mid-2023 explained by weak winds that focused strong solar heating in shallower upper ocean layer (with possible minor effect of cleaner marine air) that contributed to record global surface temperatures: doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenod...

A new paper updating key metrics from the IPCC is out:

Human induced (HI) warming now between 1.1 and 1.7°C

Rate of HI warming now at between 0.2 and 0.4°C/decade

Remaining carbon budget only 130 GtCO2 for 50% chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C

doi.org/10.5194/essd...

Observed increases in absorbed sunlight and infrared emission to space with warming showing models displaying low climate sensitivity show small changes that are inconsistent with observations

Simulations at the lower range of future warming projections may be unrealistic as they are unable to capture the large observed global increases in absorbed sunlight & infrared emission to space since 2000 based on @aaas.org study by
@gunnarmy.bsky.social et al:
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...