Robert Rust

The way to avoid the Thucydides Trap is to seize the Metternich Moment and find Bismarckian Balance through Tordesillas Tradeoffs, thus avoiding the danger of a Sarajevo Surprise that leads to the Macedonian Mastery of a Standby Successor from outside the Pacific Peloponnesus.

China has announced completion of initial design plans for its million kilowatt commercial fast reactor, CFR1000. Next step in nuclear energy strategy after the two CFR600s in Fujian. news.bjx.com.cn/html/2025072...

Gaza hospital boss says 21 children died of malnutrition, starvation over last 3 days As Israel faces mounting pressure to end the Gaza war, a hospital director says the Palestinian enclave is facing "alarming numbers of deaths" from starvation.

It seems that helping Israel starve children is what constitutes an “America First” foreign policy.

Congrats to all the U.S. officials involved in arms transfers to Israel.

You’re no doubt very proud.
www.cbsnews.com/news/gaza-st...

(all similarities to modern political movements are purely coincidental)

I still wonder whether Trump and the gang's insistence on Mission Accomplished has less to do with genuine belief or pride and more to do with getting Israel off their backs.

Been reading Hugh Trevor-Roper's The Last Days of Hitler, which is great. He ridicules figures like Goering, Himmler, Borrman throughout for deluding themselves into thinking there would be any "power" left to inherit once Hitler was gone. In other words, no Hitler no party.

Russia Offers a Motherly Embrace for Ukraine Industry (Published 2001)

NYT offers more detail. The Chinese piece says an unnamed official said Putin and Kuchma were going to discuss ICBM cooperation at this summit. Ukraine denied that this was on the docket. NYT piece shows US unease at closeness between Russian and Ukrainian industry. www.nytimes.com/2001/02/13/w...

Came across this interesting little nugget, from China Daily via China Atomic Energy Agency in 2001. Apparently there were rumors, later denied, that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine on space and aviation was going to include cooperation on ICBMs. www.caea.gov.cn/n6760338/n67...

Is this about the Ukraine authorization stuff?

Consent manufacturers not sending their best bsky.app/profile/edro...

What China’s Approach to Iran Tells Us About Its Foreign Policy By not taking sides against Iran or Russia in recent conflicts, China is trying to achieve stability and play the role of global mediator.

My thoughts on China's approach to Iran-Israel. After the ceasefire, many were quick to say China "won" or "lost." Despite China's political leaning towards Tehran, its foreign policy approach, avoiding security obligations, delegitimizes the idea of a China-led "axis." blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...

We've come full circle on the "I overheard two libs in a coffee shop whispering about how good of a job Trump is doing" meme

If you read one thing today, let it be Edwin Lyman's piece on Iran’s ability to make a nuclear bomb.

I can think of at least one other example

"Enjog" is my personal favorite.

As per usual, China was years ahead of us on this marketing style

How to Survive the New Nuclear Age National security in a world of proliferating risks and eroding constraints.

More of the same junk. All these pieces cite the '22 Pentagon report's guesstimate that China "might seek 1500 nukes by 2035" instead of 23/24's "maybe 1000 by 2030." There's also no indication that China wants to use nukes offensively. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Think of treaties as like vaccines -- more effective than quack cures but deeply unpopular among the stupidest people on earth.

See also: Taiwan

Does the absence of an explicit collective defense treaty make a difference here?

Why do you think they are "amazing" and "tactically brilliant" if they seemingly failed to achieve their (publicly) stated objectives? I agreed with you ten days ago when you said this seemed to be about regime change than nuclear, but the terror-induced "uprising" Israel and US wanted never came.

There are prominent members of the current admin who have said the exact same thing about Japan.

习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话-新华网 习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话-6月5日晚，国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。

Trump-Xi call this AM. Readout mainly focused on adhering to Geneva progress. Xi says China "is sincere, but also principled." Taiwan gets its own one-sentence para ("don't let independence minority drag us into dangerous situation of conflict and confrontation.")
www.news.cn/politics/lea...

How far are we from Yglesias finally admitting he's a Republican?

Extremely cowardly to come out like this after months of sneering at the podium and still try to hedge your bets.

@gkucs.bsky.social

Symposium: Was the Vietnam War a mistake or fatal flaw in the system? It's been 50 years since the Fall of Saigon and we still haven't reckoned with the biggest question of them all. Until today.

"Ironically, Washington’s proclivity to intervene in other countries’ affairs and use military power as a first resort has only grown. It seems the true lessons of Vietnam were left on that rooftop from which the last helicopter left Saigon 50 years ago." responsiblestatecraft.org/vietnam-war/...

AidData | Into the Breach: Will China Step Up as the U.S. Retreats on Global Development? Mar 04, 2025 |

Rubio is right, China won't jump into humanitarian assistance gaps left by US (linked an excellent report on that dynamic below.) But selling Congress the debunked debt trap idea in 2025 is just another case of China policy being hijacked by ideology. www.aiddata.org/publications...

"They provide debt traps, and that’s a point over and over again around the world that we’ve made, and we’ve found receptive audiences to it." I'm not surprised that USG is still using this talking point, but I'm also not sure whether this is mainly ignorance or denial.