Sanshiro Hosaka

Screenshot from linked article on foreign academics that have been lauded at Valdai.

Why does it matter? Because as this excellent (and balanced, and objective) article by @sanshiro.bsky.social on Soviet and Russian infiltration of academia lays out, Valdai is still useful to Russia in laundering and legitimating its narratives.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

📢 🐘 in the lecture hall is too big to ignore. The article calls for awareness, resilience, and open discussion in higher education.
Read while free 👉https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2025.2556211

🔇 Why silent? Too often, scholars hide encounters with Russian intelligence actors out of fear of career consequences.
🎓 The dilemma for the West: How to resist Russian espionage & covert influence operations without undermining academic freedom at home?

🎓 Western scholars (of Russian studies) are especially vulnerable:
– dependent on Russian data & contacts
– tempted to find alternatives to “dominant” Western systems & cultures
Moscow exploits these opportunities. Scholars' "public diplomacy” risks exposing Western gullibility.

Russian universities COOPERATE with intelligence agencies. FSB officers are seconded into higher education, monitoring scholars, recruiting students, and shaping international cooperation.
👉 Be aware academic exchanges risk helping intelligence operations & sanctions evasion.

🚨New article “The Elephant in the Lecture Hall: Russian Intelligence and Western Academia”🐘
Now FREE ACCESS:👉https://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2025.2556211
Should we resume academic cooperation with Russian universities someday—despite their deep integration into the (COUNTER)INTELLIGENCE STATE?

Trump-Brokered Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Deal: Breakthrough or Another Geopolitical Conundrum? - ICDS The footage of US President Donald Trump linking the hands of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during their summit at the White House surprised many obs...

Trump’s peace deal has sidelined Moscow, putting Washington at the centre of South Caucasus geopolitics. But with Azerbaijan’s demands and Iran’s opposition, it’s unclear if this is a breakthrough or just another geopolitical puzzle, writes Sanshiro Hosaka.

@sanshiro.bsky.social

Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest - ICDS While maintaining traditional ties with Russia, Central Asian states have seen China’s growing economic and security footprint, as well as the increasing role of other powers—or 'the rest’—such as the...

China is eroding—but not replacing—Russia’s sphere of influence in Central Asia, where countries are increasingly pursuing multi-vector foreign policies. The EU could play an important role.

📄 New report by Sanshiro Hosaka and Toomas Hanso. @sanshiro.bsky.social

Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest - ICDS While maintaining traditional ties with Russia, Central Asian states have seen China’s growing economic and security footprint, as well as the increasing role of other powers—or 'the rest’—such as the...

Moscow is concerned about growing Chinese influence in Central Asia, but the political necessity to maintain good ties with Beijing keeps rivalry muted.

What role can the EU play in this geopolitical landscape?

📄 New report by Sanshiro Hosaka and Toomas Hanso. @sanshiro.bsky.social

Full room for a panel on decolonizing digitally and the new ways - including Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) - towards the uncovering of academic and industrial production of disinformation about the RUTA region(s) with returning @sanshiro.bsky.social, Anselm Schmidt & @sergepoliakoff.bsky.social 💥

Epistemic Communities and ‘Agents of Influence’: Insights from Soviet Intelligence Documents The peaceful end of the Cold War highlighted the power of ideas diffused through transnational networks of scientists—epistemic communities—in international politics. Drawing on Soviet intelligence...

My new piece "Epistemic Communities and 'Agents of Influence'" describes the modus operandi of Russian intelligence interacting with Western scholars during the Cold War, warning against Track II diplomacy with Moscow on examples of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

YouTube video by International Centre for Defence and Security Sanshiro Hosaka on Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus and EU Policy Options

Is the Kremlin's presence in the #SouthCaucasus still significant? What levers and constraints does Moscow have, and how could and should the #EU counter #Russia's malicious activities in the region?

An interview with @sanshiro.bsky.social ⬇️

As I mentioned briefly in my report two years ago, the DVKR not just engages counterintelligence for the armed forces and GRU, but it has the function of conducting foreign intelligence and external counterintelligence. x.com/ICDS_Tallinn...

FSB military counterintelligence: Beyond countering terrorists and foreign spies – Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has published a report covering the security situation in the Baltic Sea region.

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's annual report explains about the latest activities of the Russian FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (DVKR), which is quite informative. raport.valisluureamet.ee/2025/en/5-ru...

「４年目に入ったウクライナ侵略戦争 ロシアの行方と国際社会の選択」のご案内 | 公益財団法人日本国際フォーラム

3月12日「４年目に入ったウクライナ侵略戦争 ロシアの行方と国際社会の選択」（オンライン）で「ロシアの対ウクライナ・欧州戦略？ −−影響・破壊工作の観点から」について話します。この1週間に起きた激動の米欧関係も踏まえ、発表内容をかなり修正しなければ・・・
www.jfir.or.jp/2025/02/19/1...

Many thanks to our excellent moderator, panelists and audience! Important takeaways: nuances of "pro-Russian" in the South Caucasus; illiberal "conservative values" shared by autocrats and US government; alternatives for Russia are multiple; however, who will provide security?

There's no official DOS account in Bluesky... The DOS lives in that world...

In the U.S., the Government Accountability Office regularly monitors whether foreign aid is used as intended and aligns with policy objectives. This political decision will damage the global reputation of the U.S., potentially even more severely than its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

Happy to share my new report! Why is anti-Russian Georgia now at the highest risk of RUS influence? Why is Armenia, RUS's key ally, distancing from Moscow? Why is the RUS-Azerbaijan "allied cooperation" so clumsy? RUS influence was broken into 3 types and analyzed across domains.

通関手続きに1週間以上かかり、やっとご著書がエストニア入国

補足：Pielkeは学者と政策の関係を4つに分類。①政策に興味な政策決定者の選択肢を広げるために各選択肢の包括的な情報を提供するHonest Broker of Policy Alternatives。しかし、く理論しか共有しないPure Scientist、②政策決定者に事実情報を提供するScience Arbaiter、③自らの考えに基づき政策決定者の選択肢を狭めようとするIssue Advocate、④政治や政策から距離を置き、科学のみに従事すると主張する科学者（①や②）が往々にして③と同じく政策の選択肢を狭めること（Steath Issue Advocacy）を行っていると指摘する。

意図せずして、政治のディスコースに引きずり込まれたり、一方の紛争当事者（特に侵略者や独裁者）に利用されることが必至であれば、私は価値判断を明確にして議論する方が賢明であると思う。極度に政治化されたイシューで、政治学者だけが透明な存在であり続けることは不可能だから。

ウクライナに関していえば、西側メディアは政治的なバイアスがあると批判し、より「客観的」な視点を追求する学者や専門家の議論が、結果的にロシアのアジェンダと一致し、政策をロシア寄りに誘導してきた反省がある。https://online.ucpress.edu/cpcs/article-abstract/doi/10.1525/cpcs.2024.2313826/203531/Explaining-Support-for-Russian-Narratives-about?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Stafano Guzzini (2000）は、自然科学にない、社会科学（政治科学含む）の問題点として、分析という行為自体が現実世界に影響を与えうることを指摘している。この見方に立てば、政治学者も分析対象である政治の一部である。欧米の政策を批判し、ロシア政府から表彰された攻撃的リアリズム論者のJohn Mearsheimerなど事例は枚挙に暇がない。https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1354066100006002001

The Honest Broker Cambridge Core - Comparative Politics - The Honest Broker

Roger Pielke(2007)は、地球温暖化問題をめぐる議論等を通して、みかけの「中立性」を主張する科学者が実際には政策の選択肢を狭める「隠れたアドボカシー活動 （Steatlh Issue Advocacy）」を行っていることを指摘している。→ www.cambridge.org/core/books/h...

「中立」は実際上不可能で、本人の「中立性」の意図に関わらず、現実政治のディスコースの中で解釈され、時に利用される。2022年2月までロシアのウクライナ侵攻（2014年3月～）を「ウクライナ危機」という「中立」な用語で隠蔽していた学会やメディアがそのよい例である。→

政治を研究する者が価値判断から逃れることは一種のパラドクスではないだろうか。私は政治学者はみかけの「中立」を装うより、自らの価値判断を説明すべきだと思っている。地球温暖化問題のような自然科学ですら価値判断を伴う。学者がナラティブを発信、政策に影響を与えうる政治の研究では、→

なぜか毎年秋に海底ケーブル関係で何か起こるな。

x.com/HosakaSanshi...