ICDS Tallinn

Europe on Trump's Chopping Block - International Centre for Defence and Security There is little doubt that the upcoming US Global Posture Review will include major troop drawdowns from Europe. But there have been few indications of which units will be affected and where reduction...

Any erosion of the US and NATO military posture that might result from the #GPR (Global Posture Review), from destroyers in Rota to garrisons in Germany and rotational troops in the Baltics, serves as a gift to Russia, writes Will McMillan.

Deterring ­Russia from Military Aggression Against Europe’s NATO Allies - International Centre for Defence and Security Russia’s war on Ukraine and Donald Trump’s wavering on US ­security commitments for NATO have raised three fundamental questions: How does Moscow perceive Europe’s current ability to counter Russian a...

"If Europe fails to replace US assistance, and if Europe leaves Ukraine to bleed economically and militarily, Moscow will consider its view of a weak Europe as vindicated."

⬇️ New @dgap.org Policy Brief by Karl-Heinz Kamp, @kristiraik.bsky.social, and Carolina Vendil Pallin.

Yesterday, Kristi Raik moderated a discussion by the Government Office and the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency on Estonia’s international reputation and security.

@edwardlucas.bsky.social, Magnus Hjort, Anna Rudels and Minna-Liina Lind discussed psychological defence and strategic narratives.

ICDS Seminar on Protecting Critical Maritime Infrastructure

Lessons Learned: Adapting National Legislations and Defining the Areas of Responsibility

- Brig Gen Lenny Hazelbag
- Ernest Wiersma
- Priit Saar
- Dr Alexander Lott

Moderated by Helga Kalm

Today, International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) and Embassy of the Netherlands in Estonia are hosting a seminar: "Protecting Critical Maritime Infrastructure from Hybrid Threats: Perspectives of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea".

@kristiraik.bsky.social

The EU’s Intelligence Debate: Capability First, Structures Last - International Centre for Defence and Security Brussels’ proposal for an EU-level intelligence “cell” has created headlines but not answers.  Europe’s challenge is not the absence of an intelligence structure—it is the absence of synthesis, integr...

Brussels’ idea for an EU-level intelligence “cell” makes headlines but does not offer solutions. Europe’s problem isn’t missing structures—it’s missing synthesis, integration, and trust.

New commentary by our non-resident fellow David Cattler 👇

icds.ee/en/the-eus-i...

@icct.bsky.social @harryspuusepp.bsky.social

ICDS Hybrid Series: Hired Hands of Hybrid War - International Centre for Defence and Security On 26 November, the ICDS, in cooperation with GLOBSEC, hosted a public seminar on Hired Hands of Hybrid War: How Crime and Coercion Serve the Kremlin.

"The ‘war’ component in the ‘hybrid war’ has become more pronounced" - this and other insights from a fascinating ICDS and @globsec.bsky.social seminar "Hired Hands of Hybrid War: How Crime and Coercion Serve the Kremlin" today 👇

icds.ee/en/icds-hybr...

UKRAINE’S PERILOUS MOMENT powervertical · UKRAINE'S PERILOUS MOMENT The most damaging corruption scandal of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidency could not have come at a worse time. Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies …

Ukraine is facing one of its most perilous moments since the Russian full-scale invasion. On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I break it down with the always insightful Mike Carpenter and James Sherr
www.powervertical.org/2025/11/21/u....

Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: The Wartime Engagements of an Aspiring Major Power - International Centre for Defence and Security The Red Sea has become more important to Russia since 2022, as several Russian trade and sanctions evasion routes run through it.

The Kremlin has taken a proactive approach to the Red Sea region to further its aggressive foreign policy, undermine what it perceives are western interests, and facilitate its energy trade through the Suez Canal.

⬇️ New report by @ivanklyszcz.com

Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: NB8 rahutus maailmas, venelased ja viisad, AfD, Ukraina talv – Diplomaatia Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 47. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.

Rindejoont Ukrainas määrab umbes 20 km sügavune tapmistsoon, kus otsustavas rollis on droonid ja suurtükituli. Suur osa kaotustest on droonirünnakute tagajärg. Kui varem oli ülekaal Ukrainal, siis nüüd on jõud enam-vähem tasakaalus, kirjutab Marek Kohv RKK nädalakirjas.

@icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Coercion to Capitulation: The Trump–Putin Playbook on Ukraine - International Centre for Defence and Security This week, media reports revealed ongoing, behind-the-scenes contacts between Russian and US representatives, who are allegedly close to agreeing on a 28-point “peace plan for Ukraine.” Although membe...

Yet another Witkoff’s peace plan rests entirely on Russian ultimatums and would leave Ukraine nearly defenceless against a renewed Russian invasion.

The US president continues to pursue a quick deal at any price, writes Igor Gretskiy.

YouTube video by International Centre for Defence and Security Toomas Hanso on Central Asia’s New Railways: Russia’s Pain, China’s Gain

In 2024, two major railway projects were announced in Central Asia, marking a shift in the region’s China-Russia power balance.

🎦 Watch also: Toomas Hanso on Central Asia’s New Railways: Russia’s Pain, China’s Gain

Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest - International Centre for Defence and Security While maintaining traditional ties with Russia, Central Asian states have seen China’s growing economic and security footprint, as well as the increasing role of other powers—or ‘the rest’—such as the...

Central Asian countries are increasingly pursuing multi-vector foreign policies and leveraging overlapping spheres of influence to maximise their agency and autonomy.

The EU has a chance to build mutually beneficial partnerships, write Sanshiro Hosaka and Toomas Hanso.

@sanshiro.bsky.social

NB8: meisterlikud kohanejad rahutus maailmas – Diplomaatia Järgmisel aastal on Põhjala ja Balti riikide koostöö ehk NB8 rühma eesistujaks Eesti. Julgeolekukeskkonna ebastabiilsuse tõttu on koostöö piirkonna riikide vahel tihedam kui eales varem. Sünged trendi...

Kuna normidel põhinev liberaalne kord on hakanud murenema ning demokraatia on rünnaku all isegi USA-s, mis seni oli vaba maailma juhtriik, siis läheb Põhjamaade ja Balti riikide julgeolekumurede lahendamiseks tarvis realistlikumaid meetodeid, kirjutab Kristi Raik.

@kristiraik.bsky.social

The Future of Russia: The Relationship Between External and Internal Change - International Centre for Defence and Security In a recent statement, the Russian oppositionist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, said that “the only thing that will bring peace and security to Ukraine is political change in Russia.” My view is the opposite. ...

Does Ukraine's future hinge on political change in Russia, as Vladimir Kara-Murza suggests? Or is it Russia's fate that will be determined by the outcome of the war in Ukraine?

James Sherr's lecture to the National Academy of the SBU.

NB8: Masters of Adaptation in a Turbulent World - International Centre for Defence and Security Next year, Estonia will be acting as chair of the Nordic-Baltic cooperation, known as the NB8 group. It will come at a time when the turbulent security environment has pushed countries in the region t...

Dark trends in European security and the global order require small states in the Nordic-Baltic region to adapt, strike a new balance between realism and idealism, and join forces to defend their interests and values, writes Kristi Raik.

@kristiraik.bsky.social

The Future of Russia: The Relationship Between External and Internal Change - International Centre for Defence and Security In a recent statement, the Russian oppositionist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, said that “the only thing that will bring peace and security to Ukraine is political change in Russia.” My view is the opposite. ...

"To those who say the collapse of Putinism will produce a democratic Russia, we should ask: Why will you succeed today when you failed in the past?"

The greatest influence on Russia’s future will be the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

James Sherr's lecture to the National Academy of the SBU

Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest - International Centre for Defence and Security While maintaining traditional ties with Russia, Central Asian states have seen China’s growing economic and security footprint, as well as the increasing role of other powers—or ‘the rest’—such as the...

The report is available here: icds.ee/en/between-g...

Yesterday, @sanshiro.bsky.social and Toomas Hanso presented their report "Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest" — followed by a discussion with Eka Metreveli and Amb Alex Petriashvili, with Helga Kalm leading the conversation.

More: icds.ee/en/presentat...

Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Infosõda, hübriidrünnakud, Hiina andmekeskused, Ladina-Ameerika – Diplomaatia Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 46. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.

Infosõda ei ole tulevikuoht, vaid praeguse aja otsustav lahinguväli.

Sõja võitmiseks peab lääs lõpetama kaitses mängimise ja haarama initsiatiivi, kirjutab Pekka Kallioniemi RKK nädalakirjas.

@icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Beyond Defence: A Proactive Strategy for the West in the Information Domain - International Centre for Defence and Security The information war is not a future threat—it is the defining battlefield of the present.

"The information war will be won not only by defending our values, but by strategically projecting them into contested information environments."

The west must stop playing defence to avoid losing the information war, writes Pekka Kallioniemi.

@vatniksoup.bsky.social

More Than Meets the AI: China’s Data Centre Strategy - International Centre for Defence and Security In February 2022, Beijing launched Eastern Data Western Compute (EDWC), a national megaproject to compute data from China’s developed eastern areas in its rural western regions, which enjoy a regional...

Beijing's growing compute capacity strengthens its hand in the global AI race — and the west should take note.

Toomas Hanso examines Eastern Data Western Compute (EDWC), its roots, role in China’s AI policy, and what it means for its global ambitions.

⬇️ Check out the new report “Europe-Russia: Balance of Power” by Ifri, which assesses the evolving power balance between Europe and Russia and highlights the challenges Europe must address by 2030.

ICDS was glad to help.

@kristiraik.bsky.social @ivanklyszcz.com

Trump’s Visit to Japan—Sakura Trees as a Symbol for New Beginnings? - International Centre for Defence and Security In Japan, Sakura trees mark the arrival of spring and signify rebirth or renewal. As this cultural symbol, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has announced that Japan will gift Sakura trees to the US on th...

Takaichi’s summit with the US President was widely considered as a first major foreign policy trial for the new Prime Minister—a test she mastered successfully, writes Prannavan Surendran.

Europe’s War and the Baltic Lesson: Building Resilience When the Front Is Everywhere - International Centre for Defence and Security The frontline has moved. The war is already here, and managing it by financial and policy decisions is no longer enough. To withstand the aggression and win the war, Europe needs cultural and psycholo...

Resilience isn’t a destination. It’s a muscle you exercise every day.

Too often, resilience is treated as crisis management rather than a standing posture, writes David Cattler.

Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Tuumakatsetused, Euroopa kriisikindlus, Trump Jaapanis, Sahel, Ukraina õppetunnid Mustal merel – Diplomaatia Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 45. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.

Kõigile tuttavat tuumaseent, mis tekib siis, kui hiiglasliku plahvatuse tõttu üles paisatud rusud tõusevad atmosfääri ülemise piirini ja seejärel laiali vajuvad, ei ole nähtud juba 45 aastat.

Tony Lawrence kirjutab RKK uudiskirjas tuumakatsetustest. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Europe’s War and the Baltic Lesson: Building Resilience When the Front Is Everywhere - International Centre for Defence and Security The frontline has moved. The war is already here, and managing it by financial and policy decisions is no longer enough. To withstand the aggression and win the war, Europe needs cultural and psycholo...

Estonia’s story shows that democracies can adapt faster than they believe, if they treat resilience not as an emergency measure but as second nature, writes David Cattler.

INTERVJUU ⟩ USA julgeolekuekspert: Kremli relv on illusioon Kremli tugevaim relv on illusioon, et Vene inimesed suudavad lõputult kannatada ja Venemaal on lõputult inimressursse, ütleb USA julgeolekuekspert David Cattler.

Venemaa suurim relv on paratamatuse illusioon – usk, et nad suudavad lõputult kannatada ja ohverdada inimelusid oma eesmärkide nimel.

See relv tuleb murda, leiab Postimehe intervjuus RKK koosseisuväline teadur David Cattler.

@icds-tallinn.bsky.social