Finn_FPL

I see. It will be interesting to see the team you put together.

@fpljoe.bsky.social WC-video?

#FPL
Worst xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)

🍷 BUR -6.1 (-3)
🟣 AVL -4.3 (-4)
🐺 WOL -3.5 (-9)
⚒ WHU -3.5 (-8)
🌳 NFO -3.4 (-4)
⚪ LEE -2.4 (-3)
⬜ FUL -1.3 (+1)
🐈‍⬛ SUN -1.0 (+2)
🐝 BRE -0.7 (-4)
🐓 TOT +0.1 (+7)

#FPL
Best xG teams season so far
xG diff (actual Goal Diff)

⭕ ARS +4.3 (+8)
🦅 CRY +3.7 (+4)
🧿 CHE +3.6 (+5)
🍒 BOU +3.1 (+1)
👹 MUN +2.9 (-2)
🔴 LIV +2.8 (+6)
🔵 MCI +2.4 (+4)
⚫ NEW +2.1 (0)
🕊 BHA +0.9 (-2)
🍬 EVE +0.3 (+1)

Players to consider on FH34

Fulham: Robinson, Sessegnon

Newcastle: Isak, Barnes, Murphy, Schar, Trippier

Wolves: Cunha, Strand Larsen, RAN

Chelsea: Palmer, Cucurella

Bournemouth: Kluivert, Evanilson, Kerkez

Liverpool: Salah

Brentford: Mbeumo

Forest: Sels, Wood, Milenkovic

A table showing probabilities for double and blank gameweeks in FPL

A table showing fixture probabilities

A table showing fixture slates and their probabilities

fixtures and such

The ©️A P T A I N and
P R E M I U M matrix 🖊️

🗓️ #GW27 - to - GW38

🟪 highlighting key CAPTAIN and PREMIUM player options and their HOME and AWAY matches versus last seasons bottom 12/promoted sides 👀

#CaptaincyMatrix #FPL

💚💛❤️

We officially reached full home/away equilibrium in the Premier League after this weekend's games:

🔹 Home teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)
🔹Away teams - 261 games, 396 goals (1.52 goals per game)

Probability distribution of the difference between Arteta and Slot's assistant manager points for GW26. The expected value is that Arteta outscores slot by 3.90 points. Arteta outscores Slot 72.99% of the time, and Slot outscores Arteta 18.52% of the time. The distribution is mostly a single plateau between 0 and 10 point difference in Arteta's favour.

Probability distribution of the difference between Glasner and Slot's assistant manager points for GW26. The expected value is that Arteta outscores slot by 3.62 points. Glasner outscores Slot 54.00% of the time, and Slot outscores Glasner 35.84% of the time. The distribution is erratic. The highest likelihood outcome is a relatively even affair, with smaller spikes occurring at +10 and +20 in Glasner's favour, but also -5 and -10 in Slot's favour.

📊 GW26: Stay at the Slot machine or gamble elsewhere?

250k simulations show the distribution of expected gain by making the switch from Slot to this week's top managers available for each risk profile.

Based on team ratings by @elevenify.com

GW26 clean sheet % 🥅🧤

ARS: 55%
BOU: 36%
FUL: 36%
BHA: 36%
EVE: 33%
NEW: 33%
MUN: 31%
BRE: 28%
TOT: 27%
CPL: 24%
CHE: 23%
AVL: 21%
LIV: 20%
MCI: 18%
LEI: 18%
IPS: 18%
NFO: 18%
WOL: 14%
SOU: 14%
WHU: 11%

Source: Oddschecker

Very early look at #FPL AM pts projections, via betting markets

Will be fluctuations before final Friday updates, but essentially looks like a test of risk appetite: safe option (Arteta) or roll the 🎲 on table bonus managers with a higher ceiling / higher bust potential!

A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴

Nottingham Forest are only the second side in Premier League history to lose a game by 5+ goals and then follow it up by immediately winning their next game in the competition by 5+ goals.

Who was the first?

Salah TC — 16 points

Slot AM — 10 points

Moyes AM — 12 points

Half time of DGW24

Salah needs 66 points in his remaining 15 games (4.4 pts per match) to break the all-time FPL points record. He's averaging 10.2 pts per match this season. 🤯

Wolves confirm Matheus Cunha has signed a new contract this evening keeping him at the club until 2029. New deal has a release clause.🐺

🗣️ Chair Jeff Shi: “It’s always important to us that we reward our strongest and most impactful players, and Matheus deserves this new deal.”

GW 24 - 26 #FPL UPDATED Assistant Manager Chip Predicted Points 📊

Final updated AM predicted points. This considers all available information (as of post-announcements 31st Jan) and is the best current estimate of predicted points.

Big thanks to @guymc.com for running simulations.

Bournemouth continue to cook and there's a new starter (🍡!) who warrants evaluating! So I figured I'd make a new (far too long) 🧵. Again, I'm not a Cherries fan (hope they have an off day on Sat), just a regular watcher and admirer of Iraola-ball and their players. So take this for what you will

UPDATE! Now with DGW25 and BGW37?!

An even more proactive announcement on DGW25 than we anticipated suggests the GW34 blanks might be more likely to come forward to GW33 midweek, and the same logic with GW37 FA cup final clashes coming forward to GW36 midweek instead of pushed back to GW37 midweek.

F I X T U R E S 🗓️

#GW23 - to - GW38

#DGW25 for #FULTOT is likely if Spurs finish Top 8 in Europa League (currently 6th) AND Spurs bt Liverpool to reach Carabao Final (currently 1-0 with second leg at Anfield). Likely earliest confirmation will come after DGW24 deadline.

#theFPLmatrix

💚💛❤️

Table showing PL fixtures and potential rearrangements for gameweeks 23 to 38

Table showing probability of fixture rearrangements

Table showing probability of blank and double gameweeks

FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks

Viz dump + logic explained 🧵

Liverpool have broken their record for most minutes without conceding a goal in European competition.

Arne Slot's side have not conceded in the Champions League since Christian Pulisic scored against them for Milan in September.

The previous record was set under Rafa Benitez in 2005-06 (572 mins).

Liverpool qualify for the #UCL last 16 after a 2-1 win over Lille. 7/7 wins for Arne Slot.👌

The salute 😮

Early in the season, Liverpool rode their luck a bit and got the best results that maybe weren't always that deserved.

I have some bad news...

They are getting better.

They turned early-season defensive stability into MASSIVE shot dominance recently.

Ange Postecoglou says Dominic Solanke and Brennan Johnson are both set to be sidelined for a number of weeks through injury.

More from @jackpittbrooke.bsky.social ⬇️

nyti.ms/4fZLG4J