Jonny Currie 🚀

"Allsvenskan GW18" "Projected goals and CS%" Table of team projected goals and clean sheet percentages for the matches in Allsvenskan gameweek 18

Allsvenskan GW18 matchups 🇸🇪 ⚽️

#Allsvenskan #AllsvenskanFantasy

"Eliteserien GW16" "Projected goals and CS%" Table of team projected goals and clean sheet percentages for the matches in Eliteserien runde 16

Eliteserien Runde 16 matchups 🇳🇴 ⚽️

#Eliteserien #ESFantasy

By my count, João Palhinha hit the DC threshold in 71% (47/66) of starts across the 22/23 and 23/24 PL seasons for Fulham

Yearly reminder that pre-season is an unreliable indicator of any 'meaningful' season trends.

If there is any signal, it is in fitness, squad availability, tactics/set-up/formations.

Individual performances, goals, assists, and especially results are almost entirely noise.

YouTube video by Solio Analytics Market Odds in FPL featuring RobT

Market Odds in FPL 🎙️

A Solio exclusive with the esteemed @robtfpl.com as he joins @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social to explain how betting markets can inform your FPL decisions.

youtu.be/b-IZS2LCyXc

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[Opta, via fbref]

Will be doing some digging later into better understanding Champ -> PL transition on these numbers (and the team styles)

24/25 Championship

Bogle (LEE)
- 5.37 defcon/90
- 2% CBIT hit rate

Rodon (LEE)
- 7.15 defcon/90
- 24% CBIT hit rate

Esteve (BUR)
- 7.98 defcon/90
- 28% CBIT hit rate

Hume (SUN)
- 7.83 defcon/90
- 30% CBIT hit rate

Ballard (SUN)
- 8.48 defcon/90
- 33% CBIT hit rate

Perhaps not my best example, my championship knowledge is a little limited. Mostly just meant the promoted teams don't naturally top the defcon tables.

Had had a quick glance at Burnley 23/24 PL season and O'Shea hit CBIT ~38% of the time, Esteve ~27%, albeit Beyer was ~48%. Different team now ofc.

Allsvenskan GW17 matchups 🇸🇪 ⚽️

#Allsvenskan #AllsvenskanFantasy

Eliteserien Runde 15 matchups 🇳🇴 ⚽️

#Eliteserien #ESFantasy

Note: B/G - SIF projections are from market-inferred model, as lines are not yet available for this match

#FPL May as well share here too, if anyone wants to see some defensive action points and per-game stats from previous seasons. Comes with the benefit of actually lining up with the Scout and Official FPL totals 🦦

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

YouTube video by Solio Analytics Welcome to Solio and the 2025/26 FPL season

Welcome to Solio and the 2025/26 FPL season

Here it is, our first ever video. Join @pras-fpl.bsky.social and @jonnyc.bsky.social as they talk briefly about Solio and mostly about the upcoming #FPL season. Hope you like it!

youtu.be/iZEdS3BAA2U

Screenshot from the Fantasy Premier League website. Depicts a virtual football squad will 11 players in formation and 4 players on the bench. Arrizabalaga Zinchenko Kerkez Humphreys Szoboszlai N.Gonzalez Gonzalez Jimoh-Aloba Dewsbury-Hall Kaladjzic Zirkzee Mamardashvili Mykolenko Havertz Zabarnyi

#FPL has launched, which of course means it's time for the all important 25/26 edition of if players earned points for their name as a scrabble score

Tiebreakers settled by first name

"Official FPL’s new definition for fantasy assists would have seen 3.7% more goals awarded with an assist in 24/25" "Fantasy assists relative to total goals for the 24/25 Premier League season, by assist definition" "Data: Opta (via fbref), Fantasy Premier League" "Graphic: @jonnyc.bsky.social" Horizontal bar chart depticting total goal and assists for the 24/25 Premier League season. 1115 total goals were scored, 804 Opta assists were awarded (72.1% of total goals), 978 old fantasy assists were awarded (87.7% of total goals), and 1019 new fantasy assists would have been awarded (91.4% of total goals).

Whoops, should say *87.7% of total goals for the old fantasy assists

"AFCON TRANSFERS" "All managers will be topped up to the maximum possible number of 5 free transfers in Gameweek 16, ahead of AFCON, regardless of how many they had before." "More points. More choice. More fun." Graphic from Official Fantasy Premier League with headshots of Amad Diallo, Mo Salah, and Bryan Mbeumo.

"Development & Accomplishment is the internal drive of making progress, developing skills, and eventually overcoming challenges. The word 'challenge' here is very important, as a badge or trophy without a challenge is not meaningful at all."

- Yu-kai Chou, Gamification and Behavioural Design

I'm sure that's their intention, will likely always be one or two goals that don't fit nicely into a definition though. Hopefully much reduced debate!

Yep me too, FPL bonus never quite made sense to me.
A few different chips in Allsvenskan is nice as well.

Of course!

What's new in 2025/26 Fantasy: Changes to assists rules See why more players will be rewarded in FPL for setting up goals this season

How assists are changing this season ⬇️
www.premierleague.com/en/news/4362...

"Official FPL’s new definition for fantasy assists would have seen 3.7% more goals awarded with an assist in 24/25" "Fantasy assists relative to total goals for the 24/25 Premier League season, by assist definition" "Data: Opta (via fbref), Fantasy Premier League" "Graphic: @jonnyc.bsky.social" Horizontal bar chart depticting total goal and assists for the 24/25 Premier League season. 1115 total goals were scored, 804 Opta assists were awarded (72.1% of total goals), 978 old fantasy assists were awarded (88.7% of total goals), and 1019 new fantasy assists would have been awarded (91.4% of total goals).

Official FPL's new assist definition would have seen a fairly modest increase of 3.7% in new assists being awarded for the 24/25 season

41 of the 137 goals which were not awarded an assist would have fallen under the new rules, meaning 30% of unassisted goals would now have an assist

I am! Quite casually I would add, but have enjoyed playing and half-following the league for a few seasons now.

"Allsvenskan GW16" "Projected goals and CS%" Table of team projected goals and clean sheet percentages for the matches in Allsvenskan gameweek 16 "Data: SpreadEx, Viz: jonnyc.bsky.social, 18-07-2025"

Allsvenskan GW16 matchups 🇸🇪 ⚽️

#Allsvenskan #AllsvenskanFantasy

"Eliteserien GW14" "Projected goals and CS%" Table of team projected goals and clean sheet percentages for the matches in Eliteserien runde 14

Eliteserien Runde 14 matchups 🇳🇴 ⚽️

#Eliteserien #ESFantasy

We covered these in a bit more detail in the podcast itself

For ourselves 46:15
For the elite samples 1:13:00
For wildcard timings 1:19:15

There is a bit of chicken and egg here, with it being unclear if the wildcard window leads the transfer usage, or vice versa.

bsky.app/profile/jonn...

"Managers used transfers at different times depending on when they played their first wildcard" "Transfers available by gameweek across 24/25 season, by wildcard timings" "Samples taken from collective of elite manager samples: Analytics Elite 64, #Elite64, and Top 500 overall ranked managers from 24/25 season, giving a sample of 620 managers. Segmented by time when they played their first wildcard. Gameweek 2 to gameweek deemed “early wildcarders” (312 managers in this sample). Gameweek 7 to gameweek 12 deemed “middle wildcarders” (198 managers). Gameweek 13 to gameweek 19 deemed ”late wildcarders” (107 managers). 3 managers in this sample did not use their first wildcard." "Graphic: @jonnyc.bsky.social" A stepped line chart showing transfer usage across gameweeks 2 to 38 of the FPL 24/25 season for different samples of managers, segmented by wildcard timing.

Transfers usage varied by when chips were played, the most prominent being the usage of the first wildcard.

Late wildacarders rolled more to start, middle wildcarders taking a lead after their WC window, before late wildcards regain the lead.

Early wildcarders rarely holding the transfer surplus.

"Historically strong managers and high achieving managers used their transfers at similar times" "Transfers available by gameweek across 24/25 season, by elite manager sample" "Analytics Elite 64 is a sample of the 64 highest rated FPL managers based on ratings by @FPLresearch, incorporating FPL points and past FPL Review EV and xG data. #Elite64 is a sample of 64 of the best FPL managers selected by @FPLGeneral Top 500 is the 500 top ranked managers in the overall rankings of FPL at the end of the 24/25 season." "Graphic: @jonnyc.bsky.social" A stepped line chart displaying the usage of transfers by gameweek for FPL managers across gameweeks 2 to 38 of the FPL 24/25 season, segmented by elite manager samples.

I had meant to share these last week after the podcast with @aboveaveragefpl.bsky.social and @bakerfpl343.bsky.social but better late than never.

Transfer usage across historically strong managers matched closely with managers who finished top 500.

Analytics managers liked to roll transfers a lot.

Screenshot from FIFA club world cup fantasy website showing a team of 11 players and a bench.

22nd overall in #CWCFantasy

Big swings on the final match. Ended up right side of the Palmer max cap, but wrong side on the defensive stacks.

Very much enjoyed modelling the tournament for @solioanalytics.com and @elevenify.com, although I won't miss trawling through Auckland City penalty records.