Deepak Premkumar

What’s Behind the Great American Murder Decline? Homicides are plummeting in many places. The explanation may be the sheer volume of different efforts to reduce violence.

Thanks to @byjustinfox.bsky.social for citing this study a few times, but most recently in this great data-driven piece about the murder decline in the US. (And thanks to the other people who've covered it as well @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev @jerusalem.bsky.social @charlesflehman.bsky.social) n/n

B/c of the crime impact seems to a response to the incident itself, need to reduce these high incidents from occurring, likely through interventions that reduce use of force in general. Happy to answer questions, but feel free to check out the paper (ungated link here) if you want to know more. 9/n

Recent declines in murders have renewed discussions of what caused the increases during COVID. It’s likely that the murder of George Floyd contributed. The analysis in this paper is from 2005-2016, but arrest and crime patterns seem to occur in Minneapolis (and perhaps the rest of the country). 8/n

There’s also a sharp increase in robberies and murders. Nearby cities experience declines in arrest with no change in crime, suggesting that the increase may be a response to the incident itself. I rule out other potential explanations, including investigations into the law enforcement agency. 7/n

After a high-profile police killing, arrests for low-level offenses continually plummet in the community where the death occurred for at least 1.5 years while arrests for more serious offenses do not change. Public scrutiny of police seems to be a driving factor in the reduction in arrests. 6/n

This study tackles what happens to local officer behavior and crime following a high-profile police killing. This study relies on crowdsourced datasets on police killings and protests, combined with data I collected on media coverage and community awareness of each incident. 5/n

A year later, I moved to Berkeley for grad school right as BLM protests took off in response the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO. Soon after, people began to wonder whether the protests and public scrutiny on police were resulting in them pulling back from their jobs ( “Ferguson Effect”). 4/n

It was not something I ever expected to witness—especially in Iowa. In the months following, I remember a moderate outcry, but nothing significant. Some of my friends on campus had not even heard about it. The lack of community awareness sparked the question “how often does this happen?” 3/n

Over a decade ago, when I was a senior in college in small-town Iowa, I witnessed someone driving recklessly through our central campus to evade the police. Shortly after, that person crashed into a tree, and the police shot and killed him. 2/n

Thrilled this is published in REStat! I am attached to it because it was my first foray into criminal justice research, which has remaining my focus ever since. I wanted to provide a thread about what prompted this work and the results of the study. #EconSky #FergusonEffect 1/n

This is great! Could I be added?

The ViCE seminar schedule for early summer 2025 is here:

jenniferdoleac.com/wp-content/u...

The next ViCE seminar is this Thursday, April 24, at 1pm ET.

Deepak Premkumar will present: "What Happened When California Suspended Bail during COVID?"

More info: jenniferdoleac.com/vice-seminar/

Thanks for having me! 👋 We got a lot of great feedback!