Scott St. George

I love to see papers on wind drought but also because so many models struggle to get the correct rhythm of ENSO + El Niño is a big influence on extended spells of weak winds, I worry this sort of analysis might still underestimate the risks. Definitely going in my read pile though, thank you.

Prolonged wind droughts in a warming climate threaten global wind power security - Nature Climate Change Prolonged low wind speeds can lead to a strong reduction in wind power generation. Here, the authors show that such wind drought events become more frequent and extended under global warming, threaten...

Expect an increase in the frequency and duration of wind droughts in a world that has a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference #climate 🧪🌊

Good grief. Does anybody understand what the “1 in X” catastrophe is? Maybe we should just forget about the curve-fitting and switch to “X times bigger than the previous record”.

Canada Excellence Research Chair - University of Victoria - University of Victoria Find information about applying to be Canada Excellence Research Chair at the University of Victoria

Attention Climate Solutions Scholars! @uvic.ca seeks its next Canada Excellence Research Chair 🇨🇦: www.uvic.ca/research-inn...

You: world class scholar, looking to make a move

Us: #5 in world for climate action, collegial, stunning location (B.C.) w award-winning climate policy

Pls share widely!

After a week of smoke, a look at Canada's approach to fighting wildfires differently Minnesota saw a record-breaking six-day air quality alert due to wildfires burning in Canada sending smoke into the skies. Canada is seeing one of it’s worst wildfire seasons on record.

Great discussion here on the causes of increased smoke in our Minnesota skies.
Wildfires have increased 4X in Canada and the US since the 1970s. 🔥
What changed?
The climate.
#mnwx
www.mprnews.org/episode/2025...

Map of when housing structures were constructed in the United States

Here’s a map of when housing structures were built in the United States

One of the things I really do not miss about academia is professional pressure to be part of large synthesis efforts that use MOAR DATA to ‘prove’ stuff that has been known for **checks notes** 70 years…

Rain At Bristol Speedway Classic Was Well-Predicted. So Why Play? The MLB Speedway Classic baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds was a well-predicted rainfest. So why did they try to play?

My breakdown on the weather and climate information that should have informed MLB on its game between the Reds and Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway last night. Because that was an epic fail. They will try again today
www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

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The 2023/24 El Niño event exhibited unusually weak extratropical teleconnections - Communications Earth & Environment Extreme sea surface temperature warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic in 2023 suppressed the rainfall pattern induced by the 2023/24 El Niño, reducing its tropical and extra-tropical impac...

Big El Niños 🌊 usually come with big 🌎 teleconnections.
The one in 2023/24 didn't. Why?
Rainfall anomalies in the tropical Pacific were suppressed due to greater warming in Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Led by Lei Zhang, with @matcollins.bsky.social
@cires.colorado.edu

Motherfucking wind farms…

DOE climate report response form We are collecting names to assemble a writing team to respond to the DOE climate working group report. If you'd like to contribute, enter your info below. At this point, there is no guarantee what we'll do (if anything), but we want to keep our options open by collecting names. If you have any further questions, feel free to email me. We are primarily looking for Ph.D. scientists at universities or government labs in appropriate fields. I realize that this will exclude some qualified people and I apologize, but we felt this was necessary for a variety of reasons.

🚨 If you're interested in working on a coordinated response to the DOE climate report, please enter your info on this google form 🚨

Please RT this so as many people see it as possible.

forms.gle/BL9xUAfRxA...

Why you can be confident that climate change made the Texas floods worse the importance of testing the right hypothesis

Why you can be confident that climate change made the Texas floods worse

My latest on The Climate Brink

Don't be misled by those arguing about trends in flooding.

www.theclimatebrink....

Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!"
Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere

-"CO2 is plant food!"
-pretty hard to eat when you're on fire

-"Climate has changed before!"
-We know, we told you that

-"Scientists don't know everything!"
- doesn't mean we know *nothing*

Magnitude 8.7 #earthquake in Kamchatka, following a M7.4 last week - may be largest earthquake since 2011, 8th largest on record globally, #tsunami warning in place for US west coast and Canada - the historic 1952 M9 closely caused a destructive tsunami across the Pacific

Storm update…

Should get into the northwest metro 9:15-9:30pm, and work through the Twin Cities by 11:00pm-12:00am

No warnings at the moment, but let them cook.

Severe risk update: ⚡️
Still high uncertainty when/where storms will blow.
Latest models trending later & further south.
Possible bow after 10 PM south of MSP along I-90?
Still a (lesser?) risk for MSP.
We'll keep watching.
Latest NAM 3k model(19Z) below 7 PM to 2 AM.
#mnwx

Investors hitting ‘limit’ for insuring against UK floods, warns Flood Re chief [FREE TO READ] CEO of reinsurer says exposure to risks is now ‘worse’ than when the scheme started in 2016

Sat down with the new boss of Flood Re to discuss his concerns that the national flood reinsurer is not on track to wind down by its deadline — and why, despite recently issuing a catastrophe bond, he is pricing in stubbornly high reinsurance costs: on.ft.com/3IFcUmg

"i asked grok" "i asked chatgpt" yeah well i asked carl sagan and he said the greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge 🧪

Senate budget bill clear rebuke to administration plans to gut science Meanwhile, OPM head says "whatever"

The Senate Approps Committee approved the "CJS" budget bill yesterday that would provide funding for NOAA, NASA and NSF. I did a semi-deep dive this morning, and talked about how the administration seems to be saying "whatever" to Congress re: the budget. More here:

substack.com/@balancedwea...

The police made that choice for me, and I’m grateful for them stepping in.

I hadn’t realized how much more help my mom needed than what I could provide.

She’s often not happy in memory care, but she was never happy at her own house prior. I do feel better knowing that she’s safe.

Take care.

I am really struggling to figure out how to get exactly this point across.

Assuming that the future will look like the recent past could actually work pretty well for a good while. And at some point, it will fail catastrophically and wipe you out.

🎯

Our seven-year old spent the ENTIRE YEAR of library trips in the First Grade grabbing every volume of “Who Would Win” she could find.

Joe is absolutely right. This tragedy was not caused by inadequate data, poor modeling, or incorrect risk assessments. The old technical solution was flawed but basically correct. It still wasn’t enough.

David Drobny — the NashSevereWx founder — with an absolutely crucial read on the Texas Hill Country floods.

www.facebook.com/share/p/16xT...

Graphics: Where the Texas floods happened and how high the waters rose One Guadalupe River flood gauge near Kerrville and Camp Mystic recorded a rise of more than 25 feet in two hours.

One Guadalupe River flood gauge near Kerrville and Camp Mystic recorded a rise of more than 25 feet in two hours.

Yeah, but year after year, the defense (including me one time) kept losing the case! I don’t know what the current win/loss record is, but at the time, it was pretty discouraging for the defense/pro-reality argument…

despite Katherine's kind mention, I'm not really sure there's too much innovative about the insurance industry's approach to weather extremes. But it is true we do worry about the worst of the worst-case scenarios.

just the worst part. "Value" only applies to the cost of rebuilding the structures, not the lives of those people killed by the flood.

everything in this article is just utterly horrifying.