Caoimhín Ó Tiománaigh

Awesome as always. Rock on Tej!

A 7-spot ladybird landed on my arm in Glasthule, Co. Dublin. The Irish for ladybird is the lovely 'bóín dé' - 'little cow of god'.

Chart showing revenue and spending growth since 2018.

1/5 There are three key takeaways from today’s fiscal monitor: 1) Spending is growing strongly so far this year; 2) Corporation tax continues to be volatile; and 3) Underlying tax revenue continues to grow.

This chart shows a 6% annual rate, not 3%?

Heavy Industry Is Europe’s Trump Card The continent has an upper hand in its looming security competition with the United States.

I wrote a new piece for foreign policy.

The US's postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over – and may even turn adversarial. But Europe has an overlooked trump card.

When it comes to manufacturing Europe blows the US out of the water.

Thread.

1/

foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/e...

Yes. Here are the new figures from the CSO today on this, a few months ahead of schedule. Bigger deficit last year (for what the GDP data are worth).
www.cso.ie/en/releasesa...

The Fiscal Council has collaborated with the Climate Change Advisory Council on a new report. It sets out the costs Ireland faces if it misses its agreed EU climate commitments.

These could amount to staggering payments of €8bn to €26bn to Europe.

Read more at www.fiscalcouncil.ie/a-colossal-m...

Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people.

Be strong, be brave, be fearless.
You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy.

We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.

Trump and Vance’s meeting with Zelensky in the Oval Office today “gave the lie to any claim that this administration’s policy is driven by any strategic effort to advance the interests of the United States, however misguided,” @davidfrum.bsky.social writes.

Read more: theatln.tc/SowY3Uin

Just posted by President Zelenskyy

Same, and from a very low starting point.

Video: Trump, Zelensky and Vance Argue Over Ukraine War President Trump and Vice President JD Vance scolded President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine during a meeting in the Oval Office on Friday, claiming he was not grateful enough for U.S. aid.

This will be remembered as the day when America's honor took a deep dive...

And meanwhile #Ukraine will keep fighting for all of us who believe in freedom, justice and democracy

#UkrainianView

www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...

Trump again raises idea of running for an unconstitutional third term The suggestion followed a stretch of days in which Trump referred to himself as a king and quoted a dictator in suggesting that he was immune from following laws.

Surely nobody is surprised at this stage? (@mcopelov.bsky.social is a worth following on this topic, and many others.)

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Movies watched more than six times, gifs only

1/3 Yesterday, the Construction Industry Federation (CIF) of Ireland suggested up to 30,000 housing units are under review at An Bord Pleanála or facing judicial review.

While these figures seem shockingly high, it is consistent with previous work by myself and @timoneykevin.bsky.social.

It didn't really feature in the election at the end of November, but a general intention to spend more on defence would probably have a plurality of voter support I'd imagine.

Well that is generous, I always apologise to anyone when walking through this stuff.

Fair. And on behalf of our statistics, I apologise.

*July 2024, sorry

This nice @jlpobrien.bsky.social chart from July 2023 shows Ireland's population in 2024 was c.1.7m (~45%) higher than experts projected after the 1991 Census.

It will be interesting to look back at the latest median projection for 2053 (6.39m) - my guess is another double-digit +ve % difference.

If you adjust Ireland up by ~1.75 (since the GNI* is more relevant than GDP), it would bring that data point closer to the line and I suppose strengthen the correlation somewhat.

Fascinating paper by Claudia Goldin on drivers of low fertility in advanced economies.

Countries where economic progress outstrips social progress (in particular, gender equality in household division of labour) see the most rapid falls in fertility..

www.nber.org/papers/w33311

1/5 Today’s fiscal monitor show the final Exchequer returns for 2024. There are two key takeaways from the figures: 1) underlying revenue remains very strong; 2) spending is increasing at a rapid pace leading to large overruns.

Right on pw

Here’s a fabulously expensive pizza seen today in Dunnes Stephen’s Green.

8/10 Ireland has a huge opportunity now. If corporation tax receipts are managed well, Ireland could tackle infrastructure deficits, its climate transition, and prepare for an ageing population.

1/10 The Fiscal Council's latest report looks at the prospects for the Irish economy and public finances. We point to the extraordinary levels of corporation tax being collected. These create huge opportunities but also important risks.

+1
Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.

Female share of household labour income over the past three decades in the UK - @resfoundation.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Fáilte romhat anseo 👋