Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru

Labour’s Welsh economic disaster opens the door to Farage With an employment rate of just 70.8pc, voters are losing faith in Keir Starmer’s party

Ft. @LauraMcAllister on the electoral challenge for Welsh Labour:
“What you see is this perfect storm. Unfortunately for Labour, you’ve got public disillusion with the establishment in politics – and Labour is the establishment in Wales” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d2d49fe...

Here's our trailer for the pod with @lauramcallister30.bsky.social of @walesgovernance.bsky.social , Lauren McEvatt, and Lee Waters MS 👇

The Welsh Criminal Justice System | UWP Based on official data and in-depth interviews, this urgent and challenging book provides the first academic account of the operation of the Welsh criminal justice system – a system that presides over...

Mae amgylchiadau a heriau unigryw System Cyfiawnder Troseddol Cymru yn cael eu harchwilio'n fanwl gan Dr Jones a @richardwynjones.bsky.social yn eu llyfr, 'The Welsh Criminal Justice System: On the Jagged Edge' 3/3:
www.uwp.co.uk/book/the-wel...

Welsh Justice Data: Annual Release 2025 Assorted prison statistics, broken down by Welsh and English origin addresses.

Mae Dr Jones yn credu y bydd hyn yn “gwella tryloywder a chraffu ar system cyfiawnder troseddol Cymru... fodd bynnag mae llawer o ffynonellau data pwysig sydd wedi’u heithrio o hyd o’r datganiad heddiw." 2/3
www.gov.uk/government/p...

Bydd rhyddhau data carchardai Cymru yn unig yn “gwella tryloywder a chraffu ar system cyfiawnder troseddol Cymru” Mae Dr Robert Jones yn croesawu’r symudiad gan y Weinyddiaeth Gyfiawnder ar ôl blynyddoedd o ymgyrchu

NEWYDD: Mae Weinyddiaeth Gyfiawnder Llywodraeth y DU yn dechrau cyhoeddi data carchardai 'Cymru yn unig' am y tro cyntaf yn dilyn degawd o ymchwil yn datgelu problemau yn system cyfiawnder troseddol Cymru gan Dr Robert Jones. 1/3
www.cardiff.ac.uk/cy/news/view...

The Welsh Criminal Justice System | UWP Based on official data and in-depth interviews, this urgent and challenging book provides the first academic account of the operation of the Welsh criminal justice system – a system that presides over...

The unique circumstances and challenges of the Welsh Criminal Justice System are explored in depth by Dr Jones and @richardwynjones.bsky.social in their book, The Welsh Criminal Justice System: On the Jagged Edge 3/3:
www.uwp.co.uk/book/the-wel...

Welsh Justice Data: Annual Release 2025 Assorted prison statistics, broken down by Welsh and English origin addresses.

Dr Jones believes this will “enhance transparency and scrutiny of the Welsh criminal justice system... however there remain many important sources of data excluded from today’s release." 2/3
www.gov.uk/government/p...

Release of Wales-only prison data will “enhance transparency and scrutiny of the Welsh criminal justice system” Dr Robert Jones welcomes move by Ministry of Justice after years of campaigning

NEW: The UK Govt's Ministry of Justice begins routinely publishing Wales-only prison data for the first time following a decade of research exposing issues in the Welsh criminal justice system by Dr Robert Jones. 1/3
www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/29...

Watching Caerphilly: Welsh byelection may be bellwether for political transformation in UK Plaid Cymru and Reform are polling above Welsh Labour in race for Senedd seat experts say may be ‘canary in the coalmine’

@lauramcallister30.bsky.social, said fatigue and frustration had gripped Welsh Labour. “Having been in power for so long, the party hasn’t been able to reinvent itself, modernise itself, refresh itself.” 👇 #Senedd26
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

'Diwedd cyfnod yn hanes y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru' yn ôl yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones A hithau’n dymor y cynadleddau gwleidyddol, bydd yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones yn pwyso a mesur y cyfan ar raglen Y Byd yn ei Le.

'Ti’n gorfod pinsho dy hun.'

Mae arolwg barn newydd yn awgrymu fod cefnogaeth y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru wedi syrthio i lefel is nag 'oedden ni’n dychmygu fyddai’n bosib' meddai'r Athro Richard Wyn Jones.

newyddion.s4c.cymru/article/30473

Dr Joseph Phillips yn trafod y cynnydd o drais gwleidyddol yn yr UDA a lladd Charlie Kirk gyda BBC Radio Wales 👇

@polpsychjoe.bsky.social discusses the rise in political violence in the United States and the assassination of Charlie Kirk with @bbccymruwales.bsky.social Radio Wales 👇

‘We rely on Nigel now’: Labour’s Welsh collapse is trouble for Starmer With Reform on the rise, the PM’s support in Caerphilly is as crumbly as its cheese. Losing a byelection in Labour heartlands could lead to an existential crisis

“It’s very, very difficult to exaggerate the historical significance of what’s going on here,” said @richardwynjones.bsky.social , “We’re seeing a potentially decisive break in Labour’s domination of Wales. They are in danger of falling into complete irrelevance.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

Senedd opinion poll a wake-up call for Welsh Labour, says ex-minister A Welsh Labour grandee fears the party is facing "the biggest kicking in our history".

“Polling expert Dr Jac Larner said one of the problems facing Welsh Labour is that there is "a narrative building in Wales that if you want to stop Reform then the party you vote for is Plaid" and so many previous Labour voters are indicating they will vote tactically for Plaid Cymru in 2026.“

🎤Digwyddiad CLlC 🗣️ 13/10/2025 am 18.00

Rydym yn falch o fod yn cynnal Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Yr Athro James Mitchell (Prifysgol Edinburgh), Yr Athro Mark Drakeford, a @kirsty-williams.bsky.social i drafod 'Gweithrediad Llywodraeth ddatganoledig yng Nghymru'.

Tocynnau👇

The Fifth Floor: LIVE - The Operation of Devolved Government in Wales Pennod byw podlediad Lee Waters AS gyda gwesteion arbennig - Live episode of Lee Waters MS's podcas with special guests

🎤 WGC EVENT 🗣️
We are delighted to be hosting Lee Waters MS, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social (IfG), Prof. James Mitchell (Univ. Edinburgh), Prof Mark Drakeford, and @kirsty-williams.bsky.social to discuss 'The Operation of Devolved Government in Wales'. Tickets here 👇
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-fifth-...

Mae @pickardje.bsky.social yn cyfeirio at ein arolwg BARN Cymru diweddaraf yn yr FT a gwaith @jaclarner.bsky.social i dadansoddi'r canlyniadau.

Jim Pickard writes in Morning Call (get well soon @stephenkb.bsky.social!) about our latest poll with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social ahead of #Senedd26

Gwleidydda - Ble nesaf i'r blaid Lafur? - BBC Sounds Vaughan a Richard yn trafod tensiynau ymhlith carfanau gwahanol y Blaid Lafur.

Podlediad BBC Radio Cymru #Gwleidydda diweddaraf gyda Cyfarwyddwr y Canolfan @richardwynjones.bsky.social a Vaughan Roderick 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Plaid Cymru a Reform UK ym mhell ar y blaen, yn ôl arolwg barn Mae’r Athro Jac Larner o Ganolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru yn dweud bod yr arolwg yn darogan “ailstrwythuro o fewn gwleidyddiaeth yng Nghymru”

Plaid Cymru a Reform UK ym mhell ar y blaen, yn ôl arolwg barn

Mae’r Athro Jac Larner o Ganolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru yn dweud bod yr arolwg yn darogan “ailstrwythuro o fewn gwleidyddiaeth yng Nghymru” #gwleidyddiaeth

✍️ Rhys Owen

Dyma blog James / This is James's Blog:
bsky.app/profile/jame...

Yn gynnwys canlyniadau ein arolwg BARN #Cymru gyda @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a blog diweddaraf @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social sy'n drafod ble mae pleidleiswyr Llafur 2024 yn mynd.

Including our latest #Wales polling and James Breckwoldt's blog on where Labour's 2024 voters are going, and why. 👇

Lot of attention yesterday on Senedd component of the @walesgovernance.bsky.social @itvnews.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk poll, but the Westminster figures are also quite… striking

Reform 29%
Plaid 23%
Labour 18%
Cons 11%
Libdems 9%
Greens 7%
Other 4%

Seat projection from @cavendishcymru.bsky.social

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Bombshell poll puts Wales on course to change beyond all recognition It makes bleak reading for the Labour party in Wales

@jaclarner.bsky.social of the Wales Governance Centre said: "This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year's Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.” #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

A write up of today's poll featuring analysis from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's @jaclarner.bsky.social can be found here www.itv.com/news/wales/2... #senedd #devolution

Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed 📈 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?

TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.

Siaradodd @nyedavies.bsky.social â Nick Servini ar BBC Radio Wales y bore 'ma i drafod cystadleuaeth Dirprwy Arweinydd y Blaid Llafur:

Dr Nye Davies on Radio Wales this morning, discussing the competition for the role of UK Labour's Deputy Leader and its connection with a famous Welsh MP:

We Need to Talk About Council Tax: The Regressive Welsh Way of Raising Taxes Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

NEWYDD: Adroddiad byr gan y tîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru ar y Dreth Gyngor yn Nghymru a’r achos brys dros diwygio.

NEW: Short report by the Wales Fiscal Analys team about rising Council Tax rates in Wales and the urgent case for reform. 👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Council tax payers squeezed more in Wales than in England and Scotland Martin Shipton The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis release...

The Welsh Government’s failure to reform Council Tax has put the people of Wales at a serious disadvantage compared with those in England and Scotland, according to new analysis released today ✍️ Martin Shipton

We Need to Talk About Council Tax: The Regressive Welsh Way of Raising Taxes Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

For those interested in Welsh politics, this is an interesting read from @walesgovernance.bsky.social's resident abacus operators on the case for reform of Council Tax in Wales

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...