Semiconductor Business Intelligence

Since 2021, Intel's purchase commitments have declined by 46%, while Nvidia's have grown by 7x. NVIDIA's supply backlog is now 8 times larger than Intel's. While Nvidia and AMD have more substantial HBM backlogs than Intel, they all compete for the same wafers.
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With Intel and Samsung discussing organisational structures, the US semiconductor leadership is in the hands of the Taiwanese, as usual.

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Nvidia's quarterly capital expenditure (CapEx) has surpassed that of the largest semiconductor company using the hybrid manufacturing model, Texas Instruments.

TI is spending capital expenditures on Semiconductor Fabs, but what about Nvidia?

My research model comprises a supply network that spans more than 50 subsegments, encompassing over 400 companies.

If you are interested in my latest analysis of the industry, you can read more here: lnkd.in/d-m5AiFR

If you think reshoring some Semiconductor manufacturing to the US is expensive, you better prepare for reshoring electronic manufacturing.

Read more about electronic manufacturing here: lnkd.in/dv3amq7k

In the post-fact era, where strategies and trade policies are made by instinct, using data and statistics to uncover the foundation for decision-making feels a bit old-school. But old school I am.
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What was supposed to be a Bull in a China Shop has turned out to be a Dragon in a Pottery Barn.

China has been preparing for the inevitable trade war since the last Trump administration, while US electronics companies have been caught completely unprepared.
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You must place a significant bet years in advance to win in Semiconductors.

The best way to identify the bet is to track the development of semiconductor companies' headcounts.

If you want to know more about the New Intel and the 2025 Vision: lnkd.in/dhtyY3_b

Only a year ago, Pat Gelsinger intended for Intel to compete with Nvidia, but the new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, is burying that ambition.

If the New Intel and the 2025 Vision are important to you, read more here: lnkd.in/drXUPZXJ

With 19% growth in the "Semiconductor Device" market and massive investments in new Semiconductor capacity, you would expect the Semiconductor foundries to run at close to maximum capacity and struggle to follow demand.
You would expect wrong. lnkd.in/dPqG8s7P

While you easily could be led to believe that the 12" Semiconductor Wafer is the most common size in the foundry market, you would be wrong. 8" is still the most common size, although a systemic shift is underway: lnkd.in/dPqG8s7P

While all the Hyperscalers are Nvidia customers, they also desperately try to displace Nvidia while the AI leader's profit margins taunt them.
If you want to know more about the business case of the Hyperscalers Accelerators attempting to dislodge Nvidia, read more here: lnkd.in/dNK2Xknz

One of Nvidia's masterstrokes is creating Nvidia-branded servers. Not only is Nvidia profiting from the silicon but also from the whole hodge-podge of components that make up a server. lnkd.in/dNK2Xknz

While Cloud companies can choose to buy AI servers from Nvidia or one of their partners, Nvidia's control is absolute.

Nvidia's revenue model is complex, but the result is simple. Margins and market shares are decided at internal Nvidia planning meetings.
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While the possible end of the Chips Act can help the industry return to normalcy, we are still in the post-Logic era. Withdrawing the Chips Act funding will hurt US companies more than foreign companies.
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The average monthly revenue showed that TSMC entered the year of the Snake easily.

The average monthly growth was 2.6%, which confirms that TSMC's annual growth rate is currently above 30%.

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Nvidia was only invited to the Server supplier party but decided to crash the entire AI Server celebration.
In the quarter that the Hopper architecture was introduced, Nvidia became the largest server supplier, and its market share continued to grow. lnkd.in/dEbAmc9y

With QoQ growth of 69% in Q3-24, Inspur of China had the highest growth of all companies in the server market.

Although the Nvidia and Inspur Quarter is one month skewed, there is good reason to expect a good result.
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I use the Taiwanese Electronics Manufacturers' monthly revenues to take the server market's temperature.

Read more about the server market here: lnkd.in/dEbAmc9y

The server market is becoming increasingly complex, and every quarter, a new business model is introduced as everybody wants a piece of the action.
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Nvidia delivered again. With $39.3 billion in revenue, the now predominantly server company had 12% QoQ revenue growth and beat the guidance by 4.8%.

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While embargoes rarely have the intended consequences, they impact the market as it adjusts to the new situation and "Business" finds a new way to support the demand.

Read more about the Semiconductor tool market here: lnkd.in/dYa3aK_H

ASML might not be captured in Lithography, but rival technologies are being developed that could eventually disrupt the sector.

Read more about the Semiconductor Tool Market here: lnkd.in/dSKimZgV

Just two years ago, the semiconductor companies using the hybrid manufacturing model were the best-performing sector in the semiconductor supply chain.

In the first three years of the twenties, combined revenue grew 70%, and solid business models almost tripled operating profits. lnkd.in/dQ5nU2ya

Despite easily beating the guidance with 3.1%, it was a hellish quarter for sales.
The guidance for the next quarter is 3.2% up with healthy-looking profit targets despite one-time charges.

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Nine quarters into the downturn, you would expect Semiconductor companies with hybrid manufacturing models to have right-sized the manufacturing capacity.
But the fabs keep running at too high a capacity, and the inventories keep growing.
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Investigating Intel's purchasing and CapEx commitments by year reveals this was not your average investment cycle.

Read more about Intel here: lnkd.in/dDmdgR-K

While Intel is synonymous with the US semiconductor heritage, it is also Europe's most valuable semiconductor company in terms of property, plant, and equipment.
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The main problem with Intel's 3-bucket market strategy is that the Data Center AI bucket is empty, and the Data Center CPU bucket is leaking.

Read more about Intel's strategy here: lnkd.in/dDmdgR-K

The company is in complete transformation into a Server-focused company. Server revenue now accounts for more than 71% of the total; three quarters ago, it was 39%.
Read more about SK Hynix here: lnkd.in/dkwTY3dz