As August Ends, Liberals Remain Ahead Meanwhile, Liaison and Abacus are telling two very different stories in Ontario

Polling Canada Federal Model Update:

🔴 LPC: 184 (+15)
🔵 CPC: 124 (-20)
⚜️ BQ: 25 (+3)
🟠 NDP: 8 (+1)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)

(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)

- August 30, 2025 -

Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

> Need 172 for a majority
> Win Terrebonne, end at 170 seats
-You are here-
> Win Windsor-Tecumseh recount, get to 171
> One NDP MP crosses the floor, end at 172

Vive le Canada! 🇨🇦

338Canada pollster ratings for the 2025 election are here

338canada.com/ratings-ca20...

Polling Canada Projection: Liberal Majority After a month of campaigning, the final Polling Canada model results in a Liberal majority

Final Polling Canada Model Result:

🔴 LPC: 185 (+25)
🔵 CPC: 128 (+9)
⚜️ BQ: 21 (-11)
🟠 NDP: 9 (-16)
🟢 GPC: 0 (-2)

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

Full article available for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/polling-ca...

Second last day of projections!

E-3: When The Polls Differ Regional polling in Atlantic Canada suggests a rosier picture for the Liberals than national polls do

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 193 (+33)
🔵 CPC: 119 (-)
⚜️ BQ: 20 (-12)
🟠 NDP: 10 (-15)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 24, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-3-when-t...

And here's today's projections

Another update of the trackers

E-10: Polls Remain Steady Ahead Of English Debate Meanwhile, more Canadians say they trust Carney more than Poilievre to do what's right for the economy

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 199 (+39)
🔵 CPC: 114 (-5)
⚜️ BQ: 18 (-14)
🟠 NDP: 11 (-14)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 17, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-10-polls...

E-13: Seats Narrow, Liberals Retain Comfortable Majority Carney continues to lead on the preferred Prime Minister question, while many don't expect him to win the French language debate

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 199 (+39)
🔵 CPC: 117 (-2)
⚜️ BQ: 17 (-15)
🟠 NDP: 9 (-16)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 14, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-13-seats...

E-17: (Do You) Believe The Polls (?) Polling averages have historically been very accurate in predicting the election outcome

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 205 (+45)
🔵 CPC: 115 (-4)
⚜️ BQ: 18 (-14)
🟠 NDP: 3 (-22)
🟢 GPC: 2 (-)

- April 10, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-17-do-yo...

Ouch. 🤕

E-18: Growing Share Of Canadians Say To Re-Elect The Liberals Meanwhile, Canadians give Carney credit for eliminating the consumer carbon tax.

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

🔴 LPC: 205 (+45)
🔵 CPC: 116 (-3)
⚜️ BQ: 17 (-15)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-21)
🟢 GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 9, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-18-growi...

E-24: Holding The Line Federal polling remains steady as markets plunge after Trump's "Liberation Day" announcements

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 199 (+39)
CPC: 122 (+3)
BQ: 17 (-15)
NDP: 5 (-20)
GPC: 0 (-2)

- April 3, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-24-holdi...

E-25: Liberals Blitz Past 200 Seats For the first time, the Liberals have crossed the 200 seat threshold, winning 202 on today's model

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 202 (+42)
CPC: 121 (+2)
BQ: 17 (-15)
NDP: 3 (-22)
GPC: 0 (-2)

- April 2, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

BAGS! BAGS OF MILK YOU IMBECILE! 🇨🇦🥛🇨🇦

“He’s a very successful businessman!”

E-26: Liberals Maintain The Advantage As April begins, a flurry of new polling suggests the Liberals are polling well ahead of the Conservatives

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 199 (+39)
CPC: 119 (-)
BQ: 19 (-13)
NDP: 5 (-20)
GPC: 1 (-1)

- April 1, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Deeply unserious people

E-28: Conservatives Tied With Their 2021 Election Result Despite being up three-points nationally from their 2021 finish, the Conservatives are still sitting at 119 seats on the model

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 197 (+37)
CPC: 119 (-)
BQ: 20 (-12)
NDP: 6 (-19)
GPC: 1 (-1)

- March 30, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-28-conse...

E-30: Liberals Hold Nine Point Lead In Ontario New polling out of Ontario has boosted the Grits further in the province, at the expense of the Conservatives

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 195 (+35)
CPC: 121 (+2)
BQ: 21 (-11)
NDP: 5 (-20)
GPC: 1 (-1)

- March 28, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/e-30-liber...

I could be wrong but seems like Carney comes off quite strong yet diplomatic especially after Trump started dropping the Governor nonsense.

E-31: Liberals Continue To Rise New polling puts the Liberals at 190 seats nationally, with the Conservatives dipping to 124

Here's the latest Polling Canada seat averages:

LPC: 190 (+30)
CPC: 124 (+5)
BQ: 21 (-11)
NDP: 6 (-19)
GPC: 2 (-)

- March 27, 2025 -

(Seat Changes With 2021 Federal Election)

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

#ElbowsUp Friends. ✊🏿

(Support Me By Subscribing/Donating)

Ontario - Federal Polling:

LPC: 48% (+9)
CPC: 33% (-2)
NDP: 11% (-7)
GPC: 4% (+2)
Other: 4%

Campaign / Mar 26, 2025 / n=1902 / Online

(% Change w 2021 Federal Election)

Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com

(Support me by subscribing/donating)

Federal Polling:

LPC: 50% (+17)
CPC: 35% (+1)
NDP: 7% (-11)
BQ: 4% (-4)
PPC: 2% (-3)
GPC: 2% (-)

EKOS / March 25, 2025 / n=1495 / MOE 2.4% / IVR

(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)

Check out federal details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com

This is also known as invading Panama.

Liberals And Conservatives Tied Nationally New polling from Leger suggests the Liberals are inching towards a majority government

New polling from Leger suggests the Liberals and Conservatives are tied nationally, with the Liberals heading into majority government territory on these numbers

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Interesting turn of events.