Paul Nadeau

The “Reciprocal” Tariffs Are Now in Effect – But for How Long?｜News from the Institute of Geoeconomics(IOG) IOG Economic Intelligence Report (Vol. 4 No. 16) Updated: August 8, 2025

While we're justifiably concerned about the economic impacts of the tariffs, we also need to be similarly concerned about the fact that they're not exactly legal and could evaporate depending on the outcome of a few court cases. My latest:

No, but pushing back against all the suggestions of a "secret strategy" or "a new way of doing business" feels like a game of whack-a-mole

They empirically proved Stancilism
x.com/nberpubs/sta...

Secession is unthinkable, but this is the kind of thing that triggers it. The reporting says the FBI "has agreed" to help, but on what basis? Apparently a senator's request, which is not a law. So, we're looking at a lawless action by FBI targeting another state entity w/in its plain legal authority

Once again, the way you know these tariffs are illegal under the very laws being used to justify them is that there is no such thing as a "national emergency" that magically flares up & then disappears & then flares up again & then disappears every 90 days.

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

It reminds me of EA's NHL games - shallow gameplay, superficial execution, style over substance, but the only game out there for one of my favorite genres

Thing is, he might actually be the smart one in the group over there

As I read this I keep remembering all the people who told me Jameson Greer is the smart one in the Trump administration

But to be fair, "the Trump administration is stupid and this is all meaningless" makes for terrible copy

As someone who's trying to be a U.S. expert in Tokyo, on the one hand, I wish my Japanese language ability was better so I could jump in and start throwing elbows, but on the other hand I don't have the energy to complete with all the CSIS/Todai bro energy.

The amount of bad takes among U.S. experts in Japan is staggering, and I can never tell if they're trying to overthink to reveal the subtle secrets of Trump's strategy, if they're determined to call Ishiba stupid regardless of whether it's warranted, or if they're just uninformed and blowing smoke

If the tariffs *work* then production will increase in the U.S. which means less imports and that means less tariff revenue.

So either $50 billion is BS or he's conceding that the tariffs aren't going to work for their stated goal

Why

1/ - Trade Policy in 2025 -

Step 1. Donald Trump invents threatened new tariff rates on your country based on some combination of the trade balance, vibes, personal grievance, vibes, how much he likes you, vibes, or a Peter Navarro formula so stupid it made Lesotho enemy #1.

Also vibes.

excellent thread! Need to add a step: domestic political actors in target countries freak out and demand action

This won't make much of a dent in the $7 trillion per year of federal government spending. There's no going back to the 19th century economy in which tariffs funded most US government spending, no matter how much some people might want to.

-laughs nervously in Cassandra-

From my piece this weekend: www.explaintrade.com/resources/im...

出版物・報告書｜地経学研究所（IOG） 地経学研究所の研究者たちが執筆した出版物・報告書をまとめています。

The 100 companies survey on economic security is out! It will be translated in English soon.
instituteofgeoeconomics.org/publications/

Lots of "wow look at these freak bastards" which is fair enough but there isn't nearly enough how or why to make the book useful

Worth pointing out that Trump is handling economic relations in exactly the same way that he's handling relations with universities. In case you're still trying to insist that there's a sophisticated strategy to his trade relations or that it represents a new way of doing business.

Going to try to avoid using names here, but since the post about the utility of polling and numbers is causing some Discourse on this site, I'll add that the poster's book which got them some acclaim is probably the most overrated book I've read on American politics

"Unlike the left, we don't believe in erasing history" says the guy renaming ships and purging any mention of like the navajo code talkers, tuskegee airmen, black medal of honor winners, etc

I have a hard time coming up with another country that's as determined to celebrate its traitors the way the United States is

1) Scale, 2) Probably Trump is frustrated that they couldn't reach a framework agreement by Aug 1

This is what I keep trying to tell everyone!

This is another one of those things that turns around small-seeming technicalities being crucially important. If you have laws about who can investigate wrongdoing and file suit when it’s found, and the wielder of executive power is allowed to fire those people at will, you’ve got autocracy.

We figured out to *cure cancer* (ref: last year’s pancreatic cancer trials) and the Trump administration decided “nah.” That a society could reject a cure for cancer is astounding.

The fact that all the Hungarians I used to hang around with in DC never once even mentioned the possibility of Romanian street gangs even sotto voce makes me suspect Curtis Yarvin might be wrong on some of the details here

I believe one of the new mRNA vaccines was expected to treat colon cancer, and another had the potential to keep pancreatic cancer from recurring. That’s what they’re taking away.