Paul Nadeau

Damn, I've missed a good Fred reference

For those tempted to say Young Republicans have always been this way, they really have not. When I worked on campus and did bipartisan college events after, they were very much not like this.

That’s why groups like YCT and eventually TPUSA formed — because Young Republicans weren’t radical enough.

(but some things are more possible than others)

a man in a green celtics shirt is holding a microphone in front of a crowd with the words anything is possible in red letters Alt: a man in a green celtics shirt is holding a microphone in front of a crowd with the words anything is possible in red letters

Me, anytime someone tries to ask me what I think is going to happen with the PM election in Japan

Japan turns to anti-dumping measures as international trade gets complicated An uptick in number of probes this year indicates an evolving strategy.

Japan turns to anti-dumping measures as international trade gets complicated, with an uptick in the number of probes this year indicating an evolving strategy.

Which is why Sanseito concerns me beyond their limited approval...in a situation where no one's really popular, seeing a media-oriented right wing party pick up a few seats because they're the latest fascination would give them more attention than they've earned and might solidify them in the field

Feels like it, honestly, and would track with media consumption patterns and patterns you see in other countries

Makes me respect Abe's ability to grab Japan by the ankles, turn it upside down, and shake out all the seats he could get out of there. I don't think Takaichi nor the people around her have the same skill, and none of the possible coalition parties have a strong vote-getting operation themselves

Spitballing now, but I wonder if this might encourage Takaichi to call an election if/when she's confirmed as PM since no one's really ascendant and you could catch Sanseito offguard before they'd build an electoral machine, though it would be high risk since Sanseito would get more seats regardless

While this isn't terribly helpful in terms of coalition-building (you count seats, not approval ratings), it still suggests the limitations to any coalition in trying to lock down public support; it's still very much the LDP and a bunch of guys

And looking at the age breakdown in support reveals Sanseito as Japan's unc party; they're not really very strong with any other age bracket

Approval ratings for Japan's parties Saneito polling about as well as CDPJ, just behind DPFP, and ahead of Komeito and pretty solidly Ishin, but all still far behind the LDP (as long as you don't count "no preference", who could blow them all out of the water if they finally settled on a candidate)

I don't think it's entirely an accident that you see that among one particular research focus

One of my personal rules for writing about another country is to never use the word "should", as in, "[country] should..." because it's not my place to tell them what they should do

Which I mention because way too many foreign commentators are comfortable telling Japan's parties what they should do

Right? He seems made for this moment

Disagree...the guys in the picture accurately assessed the problems

Yeah I started responding to your original question and then things got out of hand

On one hand, yes. On the other hand, there's so many miscalculations going on (IMO) that I don't put anything past them anymore.

But anyway, what was supposed to have been a bring-the-party together election turned into Aso and the conservatives spiking the football, driving out Komeito, and antagonizing the moderates.

It is, as they say Cotton, a bold strategy.

I don't know how this would work, but it feels like every party would lose seats if the election was called tomorrow

The whole mess is also not what the public wants, and they'll probably resent being called to vote again or anything that doesn't address kitchen table bread-and-butter issues that they're looking for action on.

Maybe he thought they could collaborate with Ishin or DPFP, maybe he thought that the LDP could win more votes by becoming a true conservative party, but probably both. But losing Komeito will almost immediately cost the LDP numbers they can't afford to lose in the next election

Komeito made the LDP more moderate, but their vote-getting operation, once an immaculate machine that help give the LDP is dominant majorities, isn't what it used to be, so Aso may have felt this was the time to boot Komeito and become a more ideologically coherent conservative party

She and Aso badly misread the situation in front of them, which IMO is what precipitated the current situation. Not sure if reporting's confirmed this, but it feels like they pushed out Komeito or at least created a situation where Komeito would feel compelled to leave

To go back to your immediate question, conservatives hate Ishiba but his status as a maverick within the party made it unlikely he'd ever unite the LDP. Koizumi would probably dampen the tensions but not really resolve them, while we're seeing how it's playing out with Takaichi.

Conservatives and moderates bblame each other for the situation and each want some kind of reckoning before moving forward...we're seeing that now with the LDP posts that've been handed out and the rehabilitation of scandal-hit members. The moderates are suggesting redoing the presidential election.

Some kind of a reckoning between conservative and moderates was inevitable at some point. Ishiba's big election defeats accelerated things by revealing the LDP's electoral weakness and his own weakness at overcoming internal party issue (though I don't think anyone else could've done better)

Appointment of Hagiuda to a major LDP post and Takaichi's unwillingness to commit to political finance reform. Beyond that, there are stories of Takaichi meeting with DPFP before meeting with Komeito, her refusal to lock them out of their usual MLIT post, Aso's typical disdain for Komeito, etc.

Give it a good scrub, first of all

The obvious and major hangup is who would get access to the LDP coffers in such a split, which suggests an Avignon LDP and an LDP in Rome a little like when the DPJ began to crack